by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: STARRY MESSENGER (#3)
Primo Pentimento is clearly the horse to beat off his most recent performance, in which he earned an eye-catching 91 speed figure. That performance was actually better than it looks, as he blew the start and had to make an early move into contention down the backstretch. That said, he's still a pretty goofy racehorse that doesn't seem to have it all together yet, and I'm hesitant to rely on him at a short price. I'm more interested in Starry Messenger at a bigger price. This horse has not had a fair chance in either of his dirt starts. He was extremely wide in both races, and was hampered at the start last time. This horse appears to possess some untapped potential, and I don't mind the stretch-out provided that Eric Cancel gives him an aggressive ride.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5

RACE 4: HURRY UP ALAN (#1)
Obviously, Diversify is deserving of strong favoritism in this spot. You don't often see New York-breds win their first two career starts in such stylish fashion. His allowance win last time came at the expense of a decent group of horses, and the 113 speed figure that he earned makes him the horse to beat. That said, he's needed plenty of time between his races, so you do have to wonder if he's been dealing with any issues. Also, while he is projected to be the fastest horse in the early going, there is certainly other speed in this race to keep him honest. I'm inclined to take a small shot against him with a closer. Taoiseach is the obvious choice, but I'm just as interested in Hurry Up Alan at an even bigger price. This horse had absolutely no chance last time, given the slow pace of that race. He had previously been in some of the best form of his career, and he's run well over the inner track in the past. Don't be too turned off by the trainer switch, since Dave Cannizzo knows how to win with these older runners.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,7

RACE 5: NEVERINDICTED (#3)
This pick is purely based on a trainer angle. In a race that I otherwise found to be very confusing, I cannot ignore the trainer switch for Neverindicted. Not only does Charlton Baker get a 100 trainer rating first off the claim, but he's actually had plenty of success bringing horses back from lengthy layoffs after claiming them. Over the past few years, he's done this a handful of times, and almost all of the horses in the sample have finished in the exacta, including a couple of winners at decent prices. I find it noteworthy that this horse is not entered for a tag today, taking advantage of that optional exemption. Plus, it's not as if his prior form doesn't give him a chance.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,10

RACE 6: CHUNNEL (#6)
Even though I'm not entirely convinced that six furlongs is his best distance, Chunnel's last race suggests that he fits quite well in this spot. The 100 speed figure that he earned is the second-highest last-out dirt speed figure in the field, and he earned it despite racing on what appeared to be a dead rail last time in a race dominated by horses making outside runs. Furthermore, it's not as if that was his only decent dirt race. He was moderately successful on this surface earlier in his career and even earned a win at this distance when breaking his maiden. We saw this trainer connect with a massive long shot last week, so it will be worth paying attention to this horse today.

Win/Place: 6

RACE 7: ROMAN CERES (#7)
Morning line favorite Riot Worthy is indeed the horse to beat. She showed steady improvement throughout the spring and summer and her late-running style appears to suit this race perfectly. That said, she has been off for a few months (if you're looking for any chinks in her armor). While I will certainly use her, there are some other interesting alternatives in this spot. The one that I find most intriguing is Roman Ceres. On the surface of things, this appears to be a negative trainer change. However, Richard Metivier does better work than his overall numbers suggest, and some noteworthy trainer switches have been adding needed quality to his stable in recent months. Roman Ceres does possess real ability—as she showed in her first couple of starts, as well as in the Fleet Indian up at Saratoga—but she's been a work in progress for her connections. For that reason, her last two workouts do really jump out at you, and it makes me wonder if the recent change of scenery has woken her up. (The November 26 drill was the fastest of 50 that day by over a full second.) This is a bit of a guess on my part, but I don't want to let this filly slip by at a generous price.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,10