by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: CAROLINA COURAGE (#4)
Considering the great work that the NYRA chart callers generally put out, it's rare to find horses like Carolina Courage—runners who encountered trouble that went undocumented in their published running line comments. Last time out, his rider got a bit too concerned with saving ground on the turn and ended up getting his mount shuffled back before having to steady sharply behind a tiring runner at the quarter pole. He eventually got clear late after weaving his way through traffic and probably could have been third with a clean trip. Now he's dropping in class and facing a much softer field.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6,7,8
Pick-3: 4 with 4 with 2,3,4,5,6,8
Pick-3: 4 with 2,3,5,6 with 2,8

RACE 2: FORESET (#4)
Our Pace Projector is predicting that Foreset will be racing on a clear lead early, and, while there is other speed in the race, they just aren’t nearly as fast as he. Furthermore, he finds himself in a slightly easier spot today after getting run down by the quickly improving Splashtastic last time. I definitely prefer him to the morning line favorite, Hard Study, who earned a competitive speed figure in his maiden win, but accomplished that facile victory against a much softer field after a perfect trip.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,3,5,6

RACE 3: ANDALE JULIA (#8)
Of those runners exiting the same race on November 18, Robin's Destiny is likely to take the most money based on a decent finish in her career debut. She has a right to step forward today for Bill Mott and leading rider Jose Ortiz, but there's another filly coming out of the same heat that I find more intriguing at what figures to be a more generous price. Andale Julia finished just over a length behind Robin's Destiny despite a nightmarish stumble at the start—really one of the worst you'll see. This filly had shown much more speed in her prior start and I believe she'll be ridden into a more forward position from her outside post this time. I don't think we've seen the best of her yet, and, unless one of the firsters can run, she doesn't have much to beat here.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4,5,6

RACE 5: PICCO UNO (#8)
My main idea in this race is to take a stand against Victorias Fire, who is attempting to notch her seventh straight victory. It's rare to see horses like this transfer their form from Finger Lakes to the NYRA circuit. Digging through her recent form, it's apparent that she's facing much tougher fillies today than the slow Bamboo Stick, who appears in her last three running lines. I think that the primary alternative, and horse to beat, is Picco Uno, who may not have relished a wet track last time, but has plenty of back races that would beat this field. Also, you can just cross out her non-effort two back, when she got a ridiculous ride. Use her with horses like Arietta, Frostie Anne, Five Star Rampage, and Urbanity.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,5,7,9
Trifecta: 8 with 4,5,7,9 with 4,5,6,7,9

RACE 6: IF YOU BELIEVE (#4)
In a race that otherwise borders on inscrutable, If You Believe feels like the sort of horse that you can lean on if you're playing the late Pick-4. She beat 11 rivals in her commanding maiden win at Santa Anita last time, and a repeat of that effort is probably good enough to get the job done today. Furthermore, it's not as if that was her only good race, as she had previously run fairly well behind Buzzer Beater twice at Del Mar, and that filly would be an odds-on favorite in this race. David Jacobson just wins with these types, as is evidenced by his 90 trainer rating with horses coming off maiden wins.

Win: 4
Double: 4-7

RACE 7: STORM CELL (#7)
She won't be any kind of huge price, but I just think that Storm Cell has landed in the perfect spot and is a very likely winner of this race. Her most recent effort off the layoff should set her up perfectly for this stretch-out in distance. She did not get an ideal trip that day after saving ground and being forced to come up the rail on a day when horses making outside moves seemed to have an advantage. She improved going two turns over the inner track last year and her trainer, Carlos Martin, gets an 86 trainer rating with horses going from sprints to routes. Furthermore, there isn't much speed in this field, so she should easily be able to attain her preferred forward position under Kendrick Carmouche.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,6,8
Trifecta: 7 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,4,6,8