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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 4: Maiden Claiming $62,500 at 8 furlongs on turf

The two runners likely to attract the most support are Jetsam Six (#7) and Rimanisempreforte (#8). The former's turf races are stronger, but they're buried between some mediocre efforts on dirt, and her exceptionally poor performance as the odds-on favorite last time does raise some concerns. Rimanisempreforte, on the other hand, just seems too obvious. This horse was unprofessional first time out, getting rank early and running up on horses' heels heading into the far turn. She may not have to do much better to contend here, but she's going to offer no value given the trainer switch to Chad Brown.

Instead, I'm going to try to wire the field with BANNER WAVE (#6). I know that her lone turf race doesn't look so encouraging, but he was stuck down inside and steadied at the top of the stretch in a race dominated by horses making outside moves. She didn't handle the dirt in her next start but did at least show improved early speed. She has plenty of turf-route pedigree on her dam's side, so I'm not so worried about the distance. I'm hoping Jose Ortiz can get him out to the lead and that we see an improved filly for Kiaran McLaughlin, who gets a 97 trainer rating with new acquisitions.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 7,8

Race 6: Starter Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on turf

While I'm generally wary of horses stepping up in class off wins against weaker company, I think LATE NIGHT MARK (#3) might be up to the challenge. He was utterly dominant last time. Breaking from post 12, Antonio Gallardo was never able to get over and save ground on the first turn, and he even went two- to three-wide on the far turn, but it didn't matter. Despite the ground loss, Late Night Mark drew off with authority through the stretch. He's never finished out of the exacta at Aqueduct, earning both of his career wins here, and clearly prefers this turf course, which can be an important factor at this time of the year. This is hardly the strongest starter allowance field you'll see on the NYRA circuit, so I don't even think he'll have to improve that much to come out on top.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,7

Race 7: Allowance at 6 furlongs

There is a real shortage of early speed in this race. Roll Tide Roll (#6) has some early zip, but he's hardly the type of runner that needs the lead, and our early pace ratings indicate that he's just not as fast as POSSILICIOUS (#7). The Pace Projector is predicting that he'll be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the frontrunner, and that might be enough of an advantage to get him home on top despite the lengthy layoff. It's easy to forget that this horse had actually gotten pretty good when last seen about a year ago. On October 17, he was a game fourth behind S'maverlous, Fortuitous Path, and Alex the Terror, all of whom went on to do some nice things during the winter months. Then, in his final start prior to the layoff, he was involved in a pace that fell apart over the inner track. Bruce Levine's numbers off this type of layoff are mediocre, but this horse has been working strongly for his return.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,6,8

Race 8: Allowance at 8 furlongs on turf

I'm not sure that I really want anyone out of the October 19 race that so many of these are exiting. Bay of Plenty (#4) ran well enough, but he had everything his own way racing on an uncontested lead and will likely have to face pace pressure today. Almanaar (#2) ran better than he did in his U.S. debut, but he got very rank once again, which makes him difficult to trust. Fire Away (#5) intrigues me off his last start at Keeneland, in which he overcame a slow pace. However, that was seven months ago.

Given the fact that I can find holes in all of the major contenders, I'm taking a shot with MISTER BRIGHTSIDE (#6). This horse has run better than it appears in both starts since returning from the layoff. He was off slowly and compromised by a slow pace over a distance that was too short for him two back. Then last time, in the Commonwealth, he was chasing a fast pace and lost momentum when stuck in behind the tiring frontrunner in the stretch. He has back races that make him very dangerous here, and the price should be fair.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,9