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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 4: Maiden Claiming $62,500 at 8 furlongs on turf

While I certainly respect logical contenders like Menacing Dennis (#4) and Piazza Del Campo (#8), both of whom have run reasonably fast turf races in recent starts, I see a couple of long shots that may be worth considering in this spot, even if they only fill out the exotics.

The shorter price of the two is likely to be PASSPORT TO CHAOS (#5). He made a mild late run in his dirt debut and then was disappointing in his second start. However, now he gets on turf, and this is the surface that he is clearly bred to prefer. His sire, City Zip, is a good turf influence, and his dam was a turf horse herself before producing a few half-siblings that also preferred turf to dirt. His trainer, Jason Servis, gets a 100 trainer rating with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company and a 94 trainer rating with first-time turfers.

At even bigger odds, I could also throw in RADIAL FLYER (#6). This horse has less obvious surface pedigree, but his sire, Tizdejavu, has proven to be a low-profile turf sire. His lone start over this surface is better than it appears, as the apprentice rider that was piloting him gave him no chance to win that race. He's since gotten a subtle but significant trainer upgrade to Ed Barker and could be a sneaky player at a huge price.

Win/Place: 5,6
Exacta Key Box: 5,6 with 1,4,5,6,8,12
Trifecta: 4,8 with 1,4,8,12 with 5,6

Race 5: Allowance at 6 furlongs

The obvious trip horse in this race is Life in Shambles (#4), but I'm a little hesitant to make him my top selection given that I doubt he's going to offer substantial value. There is no doubt that he was best last time after having to steady out of position on the backstretch and then re-rally around the entire field into a slow pace (color-coded in blue). That said, this horse always seems to take too much money, and he may find himself up against it from a pace standpoint again today. Given that likely scenario, I prefer the controlling speed, BIG GUY IAN (#3). Ignoring a couple of misguided turf attempts, he's actually been in pretty good form this year despite not winning. His effort against the hard-knocking Green Gratto over the summer as well as his most recent effort at Parx both garnered speed figures of 120 or higher, which would make him awfully tough to beat today. Six furlongs seems like the right distance, and the Pace Projector clearly indicates that the race flow will be in his favor.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Box: 3,4
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL
Trifecta: 3,4 with ALL with 3,4

Race 6: Claiming $10,000 at 6.5 furlongs

You can find major holes in all of the major players in this race. What will we get from Grey Glory now that he's been claimed away from Danny Gargan? Can Beach Hut ever get back to his better races? Can we trust the entry given that the more logical half is piloted by a 10-pound apprentice rider? In the face of all of these questions, the only horse that I feel I can reasonably trust is FOREST BOY (#6). He didn't get the chance to put forth his best performance last time given the slow pace and the fact that the main track was slightly speed-favoring (note the pink-shaded race rating box). He's actually been in better form for Gary Sciacca, and I like the rider switch to Manny Franco, especially given the alternatives in this race.

Win/Place: 6

Race 7: Allowance at 8 furlongs on turf

This is one of the most confusing races on the card, but I do see a long shot that I think is worth highlighting. DOWNGOESFRAZIER (#3) appears to be a bit slower than some of his competition in this race, but I think he might be landing in the right spot at the right time. This is his third start off a lengthy layoff, and I think he's set to take a step forward. You can throw out his return on dirt, and last time he just never seemed to be in a comfortable spot coming to the top of the stretch in a race that was dominated on the front end. While he's primarily sprinted lately, he's actually run some of his best races at this distance, and he's drawn very well down towards the inside in this large field. It's a great sign to see Jose Ortiz climb aboard, and I think he'll have a say in the outcome if he gets a trip.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,8,11,12

Race 8: Allowance at 8 furlongs

Brimstone (#6) is the horse to beat after blowing the start last time. He was acting up prior to being loaded and just completely missed the break, which is especially detrimental to the chances of a speed-inclined runner like him. Now he finds himself in a race that he should be able to control on the front end, and I cannot deny that he’s the most likely winner. However, while I will use him, I do think he could face a test from TESTOSTERSTONE (#2), who figures to go off at a more generous price. I know this Chris Englehart trainee was a little disappointing at Finger Lakes last time, but his prior efforts at Belmont were actually okay. He was never in a comfortable position while racing behind a wall of horses in that allowance race won by Tale of S'avall, but he never quit through the stretch. Prior to that, he was hardly disgraced behind Candid Desire and Jet Black in what was unquestionably a tougher race at this level. He's always run well at Aqueduct, and I think he's a player here at a square price.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,3,4,5,6