Race 1: Claiming $14,000 at 6.5 furlongs

Glennevan is the horse to beat as he steps up in class. However, as fine of a job as David Donk does, do you really trust this horse to replicate his recent performance for David Jacobson? Obvious alternative Roman Revival should be setting the pace and is certainly a threat to wire the field, but I think he’s going to have a hard time holding off TOO WILD TO REPENT (#5). The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be sitting right off of that leader early in a situation favoring horses racing close to the front. Last time he had to rally from last place after getting shuffled back along the rail in the opening furlongs. He actually ran quite well to get up for third that day in a race where no one else made significant closing moves. Today he’s drawn outside and should show the tactical speed that was on display back in June.

Win: 5

Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4

Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,4 with ALL

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs

Arthur Avenue (#4) owns a slight speed figure edge and figures to go off as the clear favorite in this race. He can win, but I strongly prefer ROYAL EKATI (#7), who returns from a layoff as a new gelding. This horse ran in spots in his prior races back during the summer. I realize that he disappointed as the favorite in his first couple of starts, but he also had minor excuses in each of those races. Last time at Saratoga he just seemed to lose interest around the turn before rerallying through the stretch. He actually didn’t finish that far behind James Lane, who has come back to run much faster in subsequent starts. I don’t mind the mile for this horse, and I think we could see an improved version of Royal Ekati today.

Win: 7

Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,8

Race 6: Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on turf

This is one of two confusing turf allowance races on this card. While Gio’s Calling earned a speed figure that would make him awfully tough to beat at Keeneland last time—his first start with Lasix—I want to see him bring that form back to New York before I can back him in this spot. I’ll certainly use him, but I think others may offer better value. Of the runners coming out of the race won by Toughest ‘Ombre on September 28, the one that interests me most is INTENSITY (#8). He was racing closest to that fast pace that ultimately collapsed, and seemed to be caught off guard when Cave Johnson moved abruptly outside of him approaching the stretch. It appeared as if Cave Johnson would put a few lengths between them in the final furlong, but Intensity actually fought on well to the wire and was even coming back in the final strides. He’s won over this Aqueduct turf course before and projects to get a good, stalking trip under Javier Castellano.

Win: 8

Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,6,7

Race 8: Allowance at 11 furlongs on turf

While many of the contenders in this race appear to be evenly matched, I believe that REVVED UP (#5) is better than his form suggests. This horse has yet to run a bad race this year, and he acts like more distance should only help him. He did well to beat Deeply Undervalued at Saratoga, and that one came back to win the Grade 3 Kent next time out at Delaware. Revved Up was also in that race, but he was compromised by Jose Ortiz’s decision to take him so far off the pace early. Others got the jump on him turning for him, and he was left with far too much ground to make up. I fully expect him to revert to the stalking tactics that were successful in his prior two starts.

You have to use horses coming out of the October 6 race won by Roman Approval, as well as two-time winner Sadler's Joy. However, there is one other horse that I think deserves a look at a price. SLY TOM (#3) has been facing weaker company lately, but it is worth noting that he ran some competitive races when contesting longer distances in the past. It's certainly possible that he's just not as good anymore, but he's one that could potentially make exotics interesting at a price.

Win: 5

Win/Place: 3

Exacta Key Box: 3,5 with 1,2,3,5,10,11

Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3,10,11 with 1,2,3,10,11