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TimeformUS Analysis for April 30

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Saturday April 30

>>Go To TimeformUS Past Performances For These Races


Race 1: While we believe that the three-year-old Secure Access (#5) may eventually turn out to be the best runner in this group, we're inclined to tread lightly in her first start back off the layoff. Shug McGaughey has only put a very modest series of breezes into her and his numbers with runners coming off maiden wins are not the strongest. Our lukewarm top selection is DEA (#3), who has simply been facing slightly tougher fields at Gulfstream and Keeneland and should stack up very well against this group. We prefer her to the entry of Southern Gem (#1) and Rock Me Again (#1A). Rock Me Again appears to be the stronger half, but we feel that she was the beneficiary of some favorable circumstances in her two best efforts last season (a gold rail at Saratoga on September 7 and slow pace at Aqueduct on November 5).

Selections: 3 – 5 – 1/1A – 2 

 

Race 2: Nevada Kid (#1A) is likely to go off at a relatively short price, especially if both halves of the entry participate. He will probably win if he repeats his last race, but we're a little skeptical considering the circumstances. The surface on April 7 became very speed favoring once it had taken a substantial amount of rain and we feel that Nevada Kid benefitted from the track profile. His entrymate, Bad Hombre (#1) is far from impossible himself, but he's seen better days. We have to use the entry to get through this leg of the Pick-5, but we believe that others will offer better value. Our top selection is ALEANDER (#8). We've never been this horse's biggest fan, but the fact remains that he's coming into this race in very good form and does not have to improve much at all on his recent efforts to come out on top. He did well to get back up into the race after a tardy start last time and he should be forwardly placed again with this outside draw.

Selections: 8 – 1/1A – 3 – 7 

 

Race 3: Sweet Corinna (#9) is likely to go favored here, but we're not convinced that this turnback in distance will benefit her as much as it will others in this race. While she did finish ahead of DOUKAS (#5) last time out, that filly was very rank through the early stages as she tried to do more than Irad Ortiz desired. Irad let her roll away from the field around the far turn and into the stretch, but she ended up tiring in the late stages. We've always felt that Doukas might like a slight turnback in distance and she did arguably run the best race of her life around one turn at Belmont. She's our top pick, but they all will have to catch Undertherain (#3), who should not be ignored. This Phil Serpe trainee ran slightly better than it might appear in a few of those Florida starts and this seven furlong distance is perfect for her. She's slightly unpredictable, but she's talented enough to win this race.

Selections: 5 – 3 – 9 – 7 

 

Race 4: This race goes through the enigmatic SUPER ALLISON (#5). She's hardly the type of runner that we want to trust at a short price, but we also cannot find a suitable alternative to her in this spot. In terms of raw ability, Super Allison is leaps and bounds ahead of this field. If she finally is able to break cleanly and come with her usual closing kick, we could be in for a special performance, because this filly does possess stakes-quality talent. However, she's been her own worst enemy in every one of her starts, greenly shying away from other horses and refusing to leave the starting gate. It's obvious that Carlos Martin has worked with her at the gate, since her last two breezes--both quite fast--have come out of the starting gate. As for the others, Picco Uno (#6) has a right to do better in her second start after racing two- to three-wide against the Gotham Day gold rail last time. First-time starters Cheering for Al (#2) and Eighth Commandment (#7) will also be on our backup tickets.

Selections: 5 – 6 – 2 – 7 

 

Race 5: There are question marks attached to nearly every contender in this race. Wicked Freud (#6) is probably the horse to beat, but he must deal with a lengthy layoff. His trainer, James Ryerson, only gets a 53 trainer rating with horses returning from breaks of this length. Many will likely gravitate towards the new face, Gran the Man (#2), who has been on a steady diet of five-furlong races down in Florida. He showed subtle improvement in his first start off the claim by Jason Servis, but the waters get a little deeper here as he steps up in class and invades New York. That said, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, so we cannot leave him out. Given this state of affairs, we're going to take a shot with first-time turfer UNSTOPPABLE (#8). While this horse does not have a ton of obvious turf pedigree, there is evidence that suggests he could really move up with this surface switch. His dam raced primarily on dirt, but she did run one of her best career races on the grass. There's plenty of turf pedigree in the second generation. Most notably, one of the half-sisters to Unstoppable's dam foaled two-time Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint champion Mizdirection, who is also by Unstoppable's sire, Mizzen Mast. Mike Hushion wastes no time getting this horse on turf and we believe we could see improvement today.

Selections: 8 – 6 – 2 – 7 

Race 6: Vandalize (#1) is a deserving favorite on the morning line off the strength of his debut effort, in which he finished within two lengths of the talented Lieutenant Colonel. The trouble is that the race occurred over a year ago. While it’s not exactly a positive sign that this horse is now entered for a tag, Todd Pletcher does do very well with runners coming off layoffs of this length. Porch Pounder (#2) is also likely to attract support, but we feel that he’s actually stepping up into a tougher spot despite the fact that he’s running for a tag for the first time. We instead prefer a different runner that’s dropping out of maiden special weight races. HELIODORO (#11) was no match for a runaway winner last time, but he may have needed the race. He had previously run competitive speed figures against tougher competition last year, culminating with a very unlucky trip on June 27, when he was blocked for nearly the entire stretch drive. Nick Zito gets a 72 trainer rating with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, which is a fairly strong move for him.

Selections: 11 – 1 – 2 – 9 

 

Race 7: There's no denying that Bellamy Way (#2) has run the fastest speed figures. While he undoubtedly moved up on the inner track over the winter, it's not as if he was totally disgraced last time when cutting back to one turn on the main oval and losing to Sioux, who put in a spectacular effort in victory. That said, he's probably going to be a short price again today and we think there's at least one other very talented runner in this race. Based on speed figures, RALLY CRY (#4) is not quite fast enough to win this race. However, he has had major excuses in each of his last two starts and we feel that he's in better form than it appears. Two back he was pushed into the rail on the far turn, causing him to get shuffled to the back of the pack. Then last time, in the Gotham, he was racing two- to three-wide the entire way while horses that rode the gold rail dominated the race. He has tactical speed, so he should work out a good trip stalking the speedy Groupthink (#1).

Selections: 4 – 2 – 6 – 1 

 

Race 8: This field drew an intriguing mix of proven turf sprinters and turning-back milers. The runner that is likely to go favored is Green Mask (#5), whose main claims to fame are a pair of third place finishes against Group/Grade 1 company in the 2015 Al Quoz Sprint and Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. While we have the utmost respect for this horse's talent and are not deterred by this stretch-out to seven furlongs, we do question the layoff. Wesley Ward does not have the strongest numbers with horses coming off long breaks and Green Mask has needed a race to get completely fit in the past. Mosler (#1) won this race last year, but did so while working out an absolutely perfect trip. Another favorable voyage could be on tap here as he's drawn the rail, but he's somewhat inconsistent and may have to run even better than last year to get the best of what seems like a stronger group. Aztec Brave (#12) has spent the majority of the past year focusing on longer races, but he has sprinted successfully in the past. He was in great form when last seen, earning an excellent 123 speed figure when splitting subsequent stakes winners Reporting Star and Macagone at Gulfstream. We'll certainly use him, but our top pick is A LOT (#3), who makes his first start for Chad Brown. We've always felt that this horse was best going a mile or less around one turn. He's run some of his best races over this Belmont Park turf course and this seven-furlong distance should suit him perfectly.

Selections: 3 – 12 – 5 – 1 – 9 

 

Race 9: We're not enamored with the four-year-olds shipping up from Gulfstream, Gee Pea Ess and Mr. Neetie, who were facing fields of questionable quality and figure to take plenty of action here. Our top selection is CONQUEST SEE YA (#3), who makes his turf debut following a decent first start over Woodbine's synthetic surface. Mark Casse, who gets just a 68 trainer rating with debut runners, gets a 98 rating with second-time starters. This runner sold for a lot of money as a two-year-old and we doubt we've seen the best of him yet. The other two horses that we're most interested in using are first-time starters Wyeth (#1), who goes out of the ever-dangerous Chad Brown barn, and Naqafeer (#9), who has tons of high-class turf pedigree on his dam's side.

Selections: 3 – 9 – 1 – 8

 

 
 
 
 

TimeformUS Analysis for April 29

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Friday April 29th

 


Race 1: Miroc (#4) is a deserving favorite, but a favorite with questions to answer as he drops in for the lowest claiming tag of his career after a dismal performance. He's been off for 91 days since that effort, which only adds to the uncertainty. We wouldn't recommend totally leaving him out of your early Pick-5 wagers, but he's awfully hard to trust at a relatively short price. The logical alternative is the entry of Blarney Stones (#1) and Game of Stones (#1A). The former possesses the speed to be placed relatively close to the pace early while the latter mounted a late run in his only start. We slightly prefer Game of Stones, who may have more upside, but both are logical contenders for top honors. However, there is another lightly raced horse in this race that we find more interesting and is assured to go off at a much higher price. DEVIN'S POSSE (#5) lost all chance at the start last time when he was off slowly and squeezed back. That race was won on the front end by a runner that was allowed to set very moderate fractions, which made it difficult on the closers. Devin's Posse actually made a mild middle move into the race around the far turn before flattening out. We get the feeling that this colt could have much more to offer second time out, and he figures to get a fair pace to close into.

Selections: 5 – 1/1A – 4 – 3 

 

Race 2: Though she's made 50 starts during her career and has tried a number of varying surfaces and distances, this will be WILD BELLA's (#8) first try in a turf sprint. We normally don't like to support horses at short prices that are trying something for the first time, but we think that this mare will be able to handle it. She's handled sprint distances successfully on dirt and synthetic surfaces in the past, and she's coming into this race off a strong performance against a field of similar quality. She was one of the first runners to attack the pace last time and she did well to nearly hang on despite the fact that the pace collapsed in the late stages. Her main rival appears to be Jennys Creek (#2), but that one rarely finds the winner's circle and may be past her prime now at age seven. Awesome Quick (#7) has never run a bad race on turf, but this represents a significant step up in class compared to the fields she was facing last year.

Selections: 8 – 2 – 7 – 3 

 

Race 3: For a horse that has done his best work as a frontrunner, AUGIE'S COMING (#1) did not get an ideal trip last time. He was bumped at the start, which prevented him from making the early lead, and then was forced to chase three-wide all the way around the track. This time it should be a different story as Augie's Coming has drawn the rail and is predicted to be on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner. Danny Gargan rolls into this Belmont meet off an incredibly successful run on the Aqueduct main track and this first starter of his should be difficult to catch. Shadow Rider (#4) may have the best chance of posting an upset if he can get back to his maiden-breaking form, but John Toscano is not really known for getting horses ready to win off lengthy layoffs.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 3 – 5 

 

Race 4: We're most interested in a couple of fillies that are making their three-year-old debuts. Our top pick is RAGAZZA DI PAPA (#11), who impressed us in both of her starts as a two-year-old. She was somewhat green in her debut, but finished up strongly despite having to weave through traffic in the stretch. She probably should have won second time out, but was taken too far back off a very slow pace and could not make up the necessary ground late. We feel that she ran a stronger race than Bea Bea (#10) that day and has more room for improvement. Jeremiah Englehart gets an excellent 99 trainer rating with runners coming off layoffs of this length. First-time starter Chateau Lafite (#7) is likely to take money, but Linda Rice does better second time out and this filly does not have much turf pedigree. One long shot that might be worth inclusion is Same Kinda Crazy (#8), who ran much better than it appears after blowing the start last time, and is a full-sister to turf winner Chasin Chama.

Selections: 11 – 10 – 8 – 7 

 

Race 5: While there are a few horses with tactical speed in this race, none appears to be as fast as ANIMAL APPEAL (#1). She's drawn down on the rail, so Joel Rosario figures to be looking to send her to the lead to secure early position. This filly ran an awesome race off a similar layoff last year and Jeremiah Englehart just does a fantastic job with his layoff runners across the board. If Animal Appeal brings her best effort, we feel she'll be tough for these to handle. Esther the Queen (#10) gets tested for class today, but she has put in her best performances the two times that she's sprinted on turf. She also has to deal with a layoff, and would be aided by any pace that develops. Bubbe Zena (#2) might be worth including in larger exotic wagers. She took to the grass quite well last time and may appreciate turning back to a sprint distance here.

Selections: 1 – 10 – 2 – 3 

Race 6: This is one of the most difficult races on the card, since you could make a reasonable case for just about every one of the eight entrants. North Slope (#6) has to be considered the horse to beat as he exits a tougher race against next-out winner Toledo Eddie. His recent speed figures, ranging from 109 to 111, are some of the fastest in the race, and he has handled this one-turn-mile distance in the past. However, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, which could work against him. We're going to take a shot with FLASH PAWS (#5), who has not yet run as fast as some of his competitors, but appears to be moving in the right direction. He ran very well last time, overcoming a wide trip and a slow pace (color-coded in blue) to make a solid late run at the wire-to-wire winner. Michelle Nevin's barn has been picking up steam lately and this runner figures to be placed close to the pace. We could also use Winter Games (#3), Inca Saint (#4), and Onecats Chance (#7) underneath.

Selections: 5 – 6 – 4 – 7 

 

Race 7: Neck of the Moon (#2) was installed as the morning line favorite as she returns from the layoff for Chad Brown. While we do like the turnback in distance for her, we do not think she has enough of an edge over her rivals to justify a relatively short price. We instead prefer fellow turnback MY CARA MIA (#1A), who ran quite well in her return to the races last month. She's had success routing, but we still think she's best around one turn, and this seven-furlong distance should suit her perfectly. Of Christophe Clement's pair of French imports, we prefer Stormy Victoria (#6), who kept good company overseas, most notably finishing only a few lengths behind the talented filly Impassable three starts back. While we will use all three of these top contenders, we also want to be cognizant of potential race shape, since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors the frontrunners. Of the potential speeds, first-time turfer Mrs. Hudson (#8) could be most dangerous.

Selections: 1A – 6 – 2 – 8 

 

Race 8: With confirmed frontrunners like Little Popsie and Bond Vigilante projected to head out towards the front, the early pace should be honest. We prefer a few runners that should be racing in the second flight early. Loki's Vengeance (#5) will definitely be on our tickets as he makes his second start off the layoff for Mike Hushion. This defending champion in the Affirmed Success was always out of position last time, racing wide while chasing a fast pace (color-coded in red). He's run fast enough to beat this field on a number of occasions and gets the services of Aqueduct leading rider Jose Ortiz. Eye Luv Lulu (#8) comes off a field-best 119 speed figure performance, but he may have been aided by the sloppy track that day. If he can replicate that performance over drier footing, the rest may be running for second, but we're dubious. Our top pick is OSTROLENKA (#3), who is finally turning back to a one-turn race. This runner has been much more tractable since Todd Pletcher removed the blinkers three starts back and he’s run competitive speed figures on a few occasions. He successfully rallied from off the pace last time and that new dimension should serve him well here as he returns to his favorite venue.

Selections: 3 – 5 – 8 – 1 

 

Race 9: While we respect runners like Wake Up Smiling (#4) and Lady's First (#11), they have to deal with the early speed of first-time turfers Heygirlleturselfgo and Dream On, which could make their tasks difficult. Somerset Sandy (#12) showed talent at two years old, nearly overcoming fast paces in both of her starts. While we feel that she's run the best races overall, George Weaver only gets a 53 trainer rating with horses coming off layoffs of this length. Given the possibility of a contested pace, we're taking a shot with second-time starter PIRA (#9). This filly put in an awesome effort in her debut, overcoming a very tardy start to get up for fourth while closing into slow fractions (color-coded in blue). She appears to be working strongly for her return and H. James Bond gets a 76 trainer rating with horses coming off layoffs.

Selections: 9 – 12 – 4 – 3

 

 

 

TimeformUS Analysis for November 1

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on unday November 1

 

Race 1: We don’t have anything too clever to say in the opener. ARABIAN QUEEN (#12) is dropping out of tougher races and has been successful sprinting. This drop in class is fairly logical and Brad Cox has found success on this circuit by placing his horses well. Welcome Speech (#1) must be considered off the claim by Mike Maker, who gets a 94 rating with that move, despite the fact that her last effort against cheaper was fairly disappointing. Midnight Bounty (#8) makes her first start off the claim by owner Michael Dubb, as well her first start in a turf sprint, which may suit her.

Selections: 12 – 1 – 8 – 11

 

Race 2: Saturday’s Charm (#3) is the horse to beat after a series of solid efforts since the claim by David Jacobson. He broke through his N3X allowance condition last time, so it makes sense that he’s dropped back into claiming company today rather than targeting stakes. We respect him, but our top pick is MONSTER MASH (#7), who ran a race that would make him competitive with Saturday’sCharm two back at Saratoga. He’s not a horse that handles synthetic or turf surfaces all that well, so we can easily excuse his last effort. The only major knock against him is that he’s running one day too late for Halloween!

Selections: 7 – 3 – 5 – 6 

 

Race 3: We won’t try to beat heavy favorite FILIMBI (#4), who placed second in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley and Grade 1 Just a Game in her last two starts. She’s now been off for half a year, and this is clearly just a place to get started before she inevitably is shipped to winter in Florida, but we expect she’ll make her return a winning one. Behind her, Angel Vision (#6) may be able to round out the exacta in her stateside debut. This regally bred filly was starting to come to hand over the summer in Great Britain, and we may not have seen her best yet.

Selections:  4 – 6 – 3 – 7 

 

Race 4: None of the horses with prior turf experience is all that formidable, so we’ll try some new faces. Our top pick is HOCKEY SCHOOL (#7), who goes out for capable first-out trainer Brian Lynch (86 Rating with 2-year-old first-time starters). This colt is by turf sire Hat Trick, and is a half-sister to the millionaire Grade 1 turf winner Coffee Clique, so he appears to be well-spotted for his debut. Completely Bonkers (#1A) ran an even third on dirt first time out, but figures to improve moving to turf since her dam was a multiple turf sprint winner. Court Savvy (#5) was very impressive working at the Fasig-Tipon sale in March, but Tom Albertrani’s first-time starters often need a start.

Selections: 7 – 1A – 11 – 5  

 

Race 5: We’re interested in a couple of horses dropping out of a tougher New York-bred N2X allowance race. FLEETING (#7) is the top pick. He actually has some ability, but has proven that he’s a little overmatched in his New York-bred allowance condition and probably needs slightly softer competition to win races. He gets that today and would be formidable if he merely repeats his recent efforts. Onecats Chance (#1) moves into the Rudy Rodriguezs barn, which is a positive switch, but the new connections aren’t showing much confidence as they immediately drop him in class. He’s a major player, but we give the slight edge to Fleeting.

Selections: 7 – 1 – 4 – 8 

Race 6: Though the Pace Projector is not calling for a fast pace, there is plenty of speed signed on in this race. We hope that an honest pace develops because our top pick is the closer DEA (#4). This filly has not raced since late in her two-year-old season when she took a one-mile maiden race at Santa Anita from off the pace. She earned a 98 speed figure that day and, with routine improvement as a three-year-old, she should stack up well against this field. Her dam was a pure sprinter, so she may appreciate this turnback. Mark Casse can certainly win off layoffs with his turf runners. Comet Sixty Two (#8) may also get a favorable pace setup, but she’s stepping up in class and is going to take money because of the connections. Elementsofharmony (#7) is one of the most talented runners in the race, but she may have to adopt rating tactics here.

Selections: 4 – 8 – 7 – 9 

 

Race 7: Again, while the Pace Projector is not predicting a fast pace, there are a handful of runners that prefer to race on the lead. Unfortunately, this time we could not find any viable closing options. Instead, we’ll go with the horse we believe to be the most talented, and that’s LADY SABELIA (#5). While she does prefer to race on a clear lead, at least she’s drawn well outside of the other speeds here, and she has successfully stalked the pace in the past. She’s also run well fresh before and her races prior to the layoff were simply faster than what her competitors have been running recently. Classic Point (#1) is the class of the field, but six furlongs may prove to be a bit too short for her, especially considering that she figures to get outrun early.

Selections: 5 – 1 – 4 – 7 

 

Race 8: The horse to beat is undoubtedly With Exultation (#6). He ran very well out of town over the summer, and returned to New York-bred company last time to put in a respectable performance against the venerable old pros Lubash and Kharafa. However, we want to go in a different direction by considering a couple of horses that had trips in the same race on October 10. Our top pick is PAYMENT TERMS (#1), who may be stretched to his limit at a mile, but will appreciate the fact that this race is run around one turn. We also like the fact that he drew the rail and figures to get some pace to run into (the Pace Projector is forecasting a fast pace). He tends to get rank in longer races, especially when he isn’t able to find cover early, but that should not be as much of an issue from this post position. If he is able to produce his late kick going this distance, we feel he can beat this field. We’re also mildly interested in Foxhall Drive (#2), who was too passively ridden from the gate last time and spent the entire race getting shuffled back through the pack.

Selections: 1 – 6 – 2 – 11 

 

Race 9: Slapstick (#2) has run fine in two starts, but we get the feeling that "what you see is what you get" here. Chad Brown’s first-time starter Forgive (#11) has to be considered, but he’s going to take money just because of his connections. Our top pick is YUMMY BEAR (#8), who was off slowly and was green in his turf sprint debut. Then last time he was always buried down inside, his rider showing no urgency to put him in a position to win. Today, we like that he’s turning back to a sprint and feel that we have not seen the best of this one just yet.

Selections: 8 – 11 – 2 – 5 

 

 

 

 

TimeformUS Analysis for October 31

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

 
TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Saturday October 31st
 

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Race 1: Our top pick is LUCKYBUCK SYNDROME (#8), who ran like a horse who needed his first start. After breaking alertly, he just appeared to have no idea what he was doing, racing greenly and getting shuffled out of the race down the backstretch and into the far turn. When Luis Saez swung him out into the clear heading into the stretch, he actually leveled off and finished up with some interest. That was a day that you wanted to have speed and stay towards the rail early on in the day, so he may have been compromised by his trip. This son of Lookin At Lucky figures to improve with the stretch-out in distance. Linda Rice does excellent work with her second-time starters, and R F Burton (#1) ran a bit better than it appears in his debut after chasing wide on the turn. Silent Glory (#2) is a full-brother to Naughty New Yorker, but may need this one.

Selections: 8 – 1 – 2 – 6 

Race 2: OUR CARAVAN (#6) did not handle 12 furlongs two back in the Greenwood Cup, but each of his other three races this year were excellent. His speed figures of 117, 112, and 116 point him out as the horse to beat. Last time, he might have won had he not hopped at the start, putting him behind the eight ball in a race dominated on the front end. Freestyler (#7) is an honest gelding who always seems to run his race. Just Call Kenny (#4) appears to be rounding back into form and actually ran quite well last time, but has not won since January 2014.

Selections: 6 – 7 – 4 – 5 

Race 3: There is a ton of speed in this race and the Pace Projector, unsurprisingly, is calling for a fast pace. Closers Wind Warning (#7) and Tino (#4) are the most logical contenders based on prior turf form, but we see an interesting first-time turfer that’s worth a look. KANGAROO STYLE (#5) is by turf sire Silent Name out of a mare by Freud, so he figures to take to this surface. His lone race on a synthetic track, against open maidens, was an even effort, suggesting that he has more to offer than what he showed in his New York dirt starts. Michelle Nevin can win off layoffs, and we think  he’s worth throwing into the mix at a big price.

Selections: 5 – 7 – 4 – 8

Race 4: There is a shocking dearth of early speed in here, especially for a graded sprint stakes. For that reason, we cannot resist taking a shot with GREEN GRATTO (#4). This horse is very dangerous when left alone up front, which was the scenario that nearly led to a shocking result in this spring’s Grade 1 Carter Handicap. As one would expect, the TimeformUS Pace Projector shows him on a clear lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner. We like El Kabeir  (#5) turning back in distance, but he’ll need to be ready for his best effort off the layoff and does not figure to offer value, especially at his morning line price.

Selections: 4 – 5 – 2 – 6 

Race 5: Summer Reading (#6) and Deltalina (#7) put in even efforts in their respective debuts and should be able to build off those efforts. We’re not against them, but want to take a small shot with GOLD TINKER (#4), who is a half-sister to the brilliantly fast turf sprinter Thieves Guild. Alan Goldberg doesn’t have great overall debut numbers, but he’s a bit better with his turf horses. Crazy About Jazz (#9) is a half-brother to winning turf sprinter Super Colossal and is worth throwing into the mix as well.

Selections: 4 – 6 – 7 – 9 

Race 6: Bajan Summer (#3), Regal Minister (#7), Triple Play (#9), and Ground Control (#10) all take significant drops in class. Of those, we prefer Bajan Summer, who doesn’t need the lead and has run dirt races that make him competitive with a field of this quality. However, our top pick at a price is MR. AMOS (#6), who gets some logical class relief as well as a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis. Last time, he acted up at the gate and then had to endure a wide run around the far turn. We admit that we’ve had somewhat of a fondness for this horse, but we do believe he’s landed in the right spot here.

Selections: 6 – 3 – 9 – 7 

Race 7: We don’t see a compelling reason to oppose heavy favorite ELMUTAHID (#7), who takes a fairly logical drop in class after failing to break through the N1X allowance level. The lack of speed in this race should also work to his advantage. The Pace Projector is predicting a pace scenario favoring horses on or near the lead, and Elmutahid, as the only runner in this race with a running style of at least “Tracker,” figures to be right up on the pace, if not setting it. Chunnel (#8) ran fairly well after getting shuffled back midway through his last race, but seems more likely to complete the exacta or trifecta. 

Selections: 7 – 8 – 4 – 1/1A

Race 8: Despite coming into this race as a maiden, Llanita (#6) is the horse to beat, having been rerouted to this spot once she was excluded from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She’s one of the main players today, but she figures to take money once again off her even Miss Grillo effort, and it’s not as if this field came up all that soft. Our top pick is BELVOIR BAY (#10), who ships in from Great Britain and makes her first start for trainer Bill Mott. She has come along nicely through her first five starts, topped by a good fourth place finish in Group 3 company behind Hawksmoor, who returned to finish third behind Minding—the top filly in Europe— in the Group 1 Fillies Mile. Wedding Dress (#11) scored a more commanding victory than the final margin would suggest last time after she got to wandering late in the stretch. She still has some upside.

Selections: 10 – 6 – 11 – 12 

Race 9: We’ve been waiting for SNAKE OIL CHARLIE (#5) to run back after his unlucky trip last time.  Snake Oil Charlie’s form is still somewhat buried out of that effort, and he figures to go off at double-digit odds once again. We wish this race were being run over a mile, or even seven furlongs, but nevertheless cannot pass up an opportunity on this horse. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so he figures to have dynamics in his favor, which has not been the case in his last few starts. If he gets the right ride and trip, he’s good enough to win.

Selections: 5 – 1 – 6 – 12 

Race 10: Horses like The Undersheriff and Extinct Charm are most logical based off their last efforts behind impressive winner Storm Prophet. However, both got good trips in that race, and we feel there are more interesting, lightly raced horses at bigger prices this time. Our top pick is BEN’S MIRACLE (#1), who was checked at the start and slow into stride in his debut. The pace really slowed down midway through the race (note six-furlong split color-coded in blue) and Ben’s Miracle did well to pass the field late through a swift final quarter-mile. We’re also interested in Summer Candy (#4), who was somewhat sluggish in his debut, but got rolling late and galloped out well. He’s a half-brother to a slew of accomplished New York-bred turf runners. Mr. Logistics (#6) lost all chance at the start last time when he walked out of the gate. He briefly moved up to catch the field before being eased late. He’s interesting at a huge price, as is first-time starter Sweetbitterjustice (#8), who has a ton of turf pedigree on the bottom side of his pedigree.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 6 – 8