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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for November 1

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on unday November 1


Race 1: We don’t have anything too clever to say in the opener. ARABIAN QUEEN (#12) is dropping out of tougher races and has been successful sprinting. This drop in class is fairly logical and Brad Cox has found success on this circuit by placing his horses well. Welcome Speech (#1) must be considered off the claim by Mike Maker, who gets a 94 rating with that move, despite the fact that her last effort against cheaper was fairly disappointing. Midnight Bounty (#8) makes her first start off the claim by owner Michael Dubb, as well her first start in a turf sprint, which may suit her.

Selections: 12 – 1 – 8 – 11


Race 2: Saturday’s Charm (#3) is the horse to beat after a series of solid efforts since the claim by David Jacobson. He broke through his N3X allowance condition last time, so it makes sense that he’s dropped back into claiming company today rather than targeting stakes. We respect him, but our top pick is MONSTER MASH (#7), who ran a race that would make him competitive with Saturday’sCharm two back at Saratoga. He’s not a horse that handles synthetic or turf surfaces all that well, so we can easily excuse his last effort. The only major knock against him is that he’s running one day too late for Halloween!

Selections: 7 – 3 – 5 – 6 


Race 3: We won’t try to beat heavy favorite FILIMBI (#4), who placed second in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley and Grade 1 Just a Game in her last two starts. She’s now been off for half a year, and this is clearly just a place to get started before she inevitably is shipped to winter in Florida, but we expect she’ll make her return a winning one. Behind her, Angel Vision (#6) may be able to round out the exacta in her stateside debut. This regally bred filly was starting to come to hand over the summer in Great Britain, and we may not have seen her best yet.

Selections:  4 – 6 – 3 – 7 


Race 4: None of the horses with prior turf experience is all that formidable, so we’ll try some new faces. Our top pick is HOCKEY SCHOOL (#7), who goes out for capable first-out trainer Brian Lynch (86 Rating with 2-year-old first-time starters). This colt is by turf sire Hat Trick, and is a half-sister to the millionaire Grade 1 turf winner Coffee Clique, so he appears to be well-spotted for his debut. Completely Bonkers (#1A) ran an even third on dirt first time out, but figures to improve moving to turf since her dam was a multiple turf sprint winner. Court Savvy (#5) was very impressive working at the Fasig-Tipon sale in March, but Tom Albertrani’s first-time starters often need a start.

Selections: 7 – 1A – 11 – 5  


Race 5: We’re interested in a couple of horses dropping out of a tougher New York-bred N2X allowance race. FLEETING (#7) is the top pick. He actually has some ability, but has proven that he’s a little overmatched in his New York-bred allowance condition and probably needs slightly softer competition to win races. He gets that today and would be formidable if he merely repeats his recent efforts. Onecats Chance (#1) moves into the Rudy Rodriguezs barn, which is a positive switch, but the new connections aren’t showing much confidence as they immediately drop him in class. He’s a major player, but we give the slight edge to Fleeting.

Selections: 7 – 1 – 4 – 8 

Race 6: Though the Pace Projector is not calling for a fast pace, there is plenty of speed signed on in this race. We hope that an honest pace develops because our top pick is the closer DEA (#4). This filly has not raced since late in her two-year-old season when she took a one-mile maiden race at Santa Anita from off the pace. She earned a 98 speed figure that day and, with routine improvement as a three-year-old, she should stack up well against this field. Her dam was a pure sprinter, so she may appreciate this turnback. Mark Casse can certainly win off layoffs with his turf runners. Comet Sixty Two (#8) may also get a favorable pace setup, but she’s stepping up in class and is going to take money because of the connections. Elementsofharmony (#7) is one of the most talented runners in the race, but she may have to adopt rating tactics here.

Selections: 4 – 8 – 7 – 9 


Race 7: Again, while the Pace Projector is not predicting a fast pace, there are a handful of runners that prefer to race on the lead. Unfortunately, this time we could not find any viable closing options. Instead, we’ll go with the horse we believe to be the most talented, and that’s LADY SABELIA (#5). While she does prefer to race on a clear lead, at least she’s drawn well outside of the other speeds here, and she has successfully stalked the pace in the past. She’s also run well fresh before and her races prior to the layoff were simply faster than what her competitors have been running recently. Classic Point (#1) is the class of the field, but six furlongs may prove to be a bit too short for her, especially considering that she figures to get outrun early.

Selections: 5 – 1 – 4 – 7 


Race 8: The horse to beat is undoubtedly With Exultation (#6). He ran very well out of town over the summer, and returned to New York-bred company last time to put in a respectable performance against the venerable old pros Lubash and Kharafa. However, we want to go in a different direction by considering a couple of horses that had trips in the same race on October 10. Our top pick is PAYMENT TERMS (#1), who may be stretched to his limit at a mile, but will appreciate the fact that this race is run around one turn. We also like the fact that he drew the rail and figures to get some pace to run into (the Pace Projector is forecasting a fast pace). He tends to get rank in longer races, especially when he isn’t able to find cover early, but that should not be as much of an issue from this post position. If he is able to produce his late kick going this distance, we feel he can beat this field. We’re also mildly interested in Foxhall Drive (#2), who was too passively ridden from the gate last time and spent the entire race getting shuffled back through the pack.

Selections: 1 – 6 – 2 – 11 


Race 9: Slapstick (#2) has run fine in two starts, but we get the feeling that "what you see is what you get" here. Chad Brown’s first-time starter Forgive (#11) has to be considered, but he’s going to take money just because of his connections. Our top pick is YUMMY BEAR (#8), who was off slowly and was green in his turf sprint debut. Then last time he was always buried down inside, his rider showing no urgency to put him in a position to win. Today, we like that he’s turning back to a sprint and feel that we have not seen the best of this one just yet.

Selections: 8 – 11 – 2 – 5 





TimeformUS Analysis for October 31

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Saturday October 31st



Race 1: Our top pick is LUCKYBUCK SYNDROME (#8), who ran like a horse who needed his first start. After breaking alertly, he just appeared to have no idea what he was doing, racing greenly and getting shuffled out of the race down the backstretch and into the far turn. When Luis Saez swung him out into the clear heading into the stretch, he actually leveled off and finished up with some interest. That was a day that you wanted to have speed and stay towards the rail early on in the day, so he may have been compromised by his trip. This son of Lookin At Lucky figures to improve with the stretch-out in distance. Linda Rice does excellent work with her second-time starters, and R F Burton (#1) ran a bit better than it appears in his debut after chasing wide on the turn. Silent Glory (#2) is a full-brother to Naughty New Yorker, but may need this one.

Selections: 8 – 1 – 2 – 6 

Race 2: OUR CARAVAN (#6) did not handle 12 furlongs two back in the Greenwood Cup, but each of his other three races this year were excellent. His speed figures of 117, 112, and 116 point him out as the horse to beat. Last time, he might have won had he not hopped at the start, putting him behind the eight ball in a race dominated on the front end. Freestyler (#7) is an honest gelding who always seems to run his race. Just Call Kenny (#4) appears to be rounding back into form and actually ran quite well last time, but has not won since January 2014.

Selections: 6 – 7 – 4 – 5 

Race 3: There is a ton of speed in this race and the Pace Projector, unsurprisingly, is calling for a fast pace. Closers Wind Warning (#7) and Tino (#4) are the most logical contenders based on prior turf form, but we see an interesting first-time turfer that’s worth a look. KANGAROO STYLE (#5) is by turf sire Silent Name out of a mare by Freud, so he figures to take to this surface. His lone race on a synthetic track, against open maidens, was an even effort, suggesting that he has more to offer than what he showed in his New York dirt starts. Michelle Nevin can win off layoffs, and we think  he’s worth throwing into the mix at a big price.

Selections: 5 – 7 – 4 – 8

Race 4: There is a shocking dearth of early speed in here, especially for a graded sprint stakes. For that reason, we cannot resist taking a shot with GREEN GRATTO (#4). This horse is very dangerous when left alone up front, which was the scenario that nearly led to a shocking result in this spring’s Grade 1 Carter Handicap. As one would expect, the TimeformUS Pace Projector shows him on a clear lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner. We like El Kabeir  (#5) turning back in distance, but he’ll need to be ready for his best effort off the layoff and does not figure to offer value, especially at his morning line price.

Selections: 4 – 5 – 2 – 6 

Race 5: Summer Reading (#6) and Deltalina (#7) put in even efforts in their respective debuts and should be able to build off those efforts. We’re not against them, but want to take a small shot with GOLD TINKER (#4), who is a half-sister to the brilliantly fast turf sprinter Thieves Guild. Alan Goldberg doesn’t have great overall debut numbers, but he’s a bit better with his turf horses. Crazy About Jazz (#9) is a half-brother to winning turf sprinter Super Colossal and is worth throwing into the mix as well.

Selections: 4 – 6 – 7 – 9 

Race 6: Bajan Summer (#3), Regal Minister (#7), Triple Play (#9), and Ground Control (#10) all take significant drops in class. Of those, we prefer Bajan Summer, who doesn’t need the lead and has run dirt races that make him competitive with a field of this quality. However, our top pick at a price is MR. AMOS (#6), who gets some logical class relief as well as a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis. Last time, he acted up at the gate and then had to endure a wide run around the far turn. We admit that we’ve had somewhat of a fondness for this horse, but we do believe he’s landed in the right spot here.

Selections: 6 – 3 – 9 – 7 

Race 7: We don’t see a compelling reason to oppose heavy favorite ELMUTAHID (#7), who takes a fairly logical drop in class after failing to break through the N1X allowance level. The lack of speed in this race should also work to his advantage. The Pace Projector is predicting a pace scenario favoring horses on or near the lead, and Elmutahid, as the only runner in this race with a running style of at least “Tracker,” figures to be right up on the pace, if not setting it. Chunnel (#8) ran fairly well after getting shuffled back midway through his last race, but seems more likely to complete the exacta or trifecta. 

Selections: 7 – 8 – 4 – 1/1A

Race 8: Despite coming into this race as a maiden, Llanita (#6) is the horse to beat, having been rerouted to this spot once she was excluded from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She’s one of the main players today, but she figures to take money once again off her even Miss Grillo effort, and it’s not as if this field came up all that soft. Our top pick is BELVOIR BAY (#10), who ships in from Great Britain and makes her first start for trainer Bill Mott. She has come along nicely through her first five starts, topped by a good fourth place finish in Group 3 company behind Hawksmoor, who returned to finish third behind Minding—the top filly in Europe— in the Group 1 Fillies Mile. Wedding Dress (#11) scored a more commanding victory than the final margin would suggest last time after she got to wandering late in the stretch. She still has some upside.

Selections: 10 – 6 – 11 – 12 

Race 9: We’ve been waiting for SNAKE OIL CHARLIE (#5) to run back after his unlucky trip last time.  Snake Oil Charlie’s form is still somewhat buried out of that effort, and he figures to go off at double-digit odds once again. We wish this race were being run over a mile, or even seven furlongs, but nevertheless cannot pass up an opportunity on this horse. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so he figures to have dynamics in his favor, which has not been the case in his last few starts. If he gets the right ride and trip, he’s good enough to win.

Selections: 5 – 1 – 6 – 12 

Race 10: Horses like The Undersheriff and Extinct Charm are most logical based off their last efforts behind impressive winner Storm Prophet. However, both got good trips in that race, and we feel there are more interesting, lightly raced horses at bigger prices this time. Our top pick is BEN’S MIRACLE (#1), who was checked at the start and slow into stride in his debut. The pace really slowed down midway through the race (note six-furlong split color-coded in blue) and Ben’s Miracle did well to pass the field late through a swift final quarter-mile. We’re also interested in Summer Candy (#4), who was somewhat sluggish in his debut, but got rolling late and galloped out well. He’s a half-brother to a slew of accomplished New York-bred turf runners. Mr. Logistics (#6) lost all chance at the start last time when he walked out of the gate. He briefly moved up to catch the field before being eased late. He’s interesting at a huge price, as is first-time starter Sweetbitterjustice (#8), who has a ton of turf pedigree on the bottom side of his pedigree.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 6 – 8 


TimeformUS Analysis for October 30

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Friday October 30th

Race 1: QUEEN OF THE SPA (#9) ran very well two back—at the Spa—setting a fast pace (note pace color-coded in red) before holding on to be second. Last time she may not have appreciated the sloppy track. More Than Rainbows (#8) improved in her first start on dirt, but last time was the time to have her at 15/1. Fiery Cat (#10) seemingly drops in class for David Jacobson, but our speed figures indicate she’ll have to improve on her recent form to beat this field.

Selections: 9 – 8 – 10 – 2 

Race 2: In a very confusing race, we’ll take SAINT FINIAN (#11) at a bit of a price. Dynamics didn’t suit him in his last two races, but he put in an effort three back that would make him formidable in this spot. The feeling is that he may get a little lost in the wagering. Neoclassic (#3) and Sinatra (#6) have both run competitive races at this level recently and can certainly win, but they are hard to get too excited about.

Selections: 11 – 3 – 6 – 1/1A


Race 3: CONGENIAL (#1) races first off the claim for David Jacobson, a 95-rated move for him, as he drops in class and turns back in distance. As long as he merely holds his form, he’s likely to prove too tough for this field to handle. Sol the Freud (#5) appears to be the controlling speed and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the frontrunner, but the sudden drop in class is of slight concern.

Selections: 1 – 5 – 2 – 3 

Race 4: MAKE A DECISION (#1) appears to have regained his best form, and the reclaim by Linda Rice has to be viewed as a positive sign. Macagone ensures a fair pace in almost any race that he participates in, so Make a Decision should have every chance to come with his late run. This N1X allowance did not attract a particularly strong field, and the preliminary Race Rating suggests this is actually a slight drop in class for Make a Decision. Rock Eagle (#5) encountered traffic issues two back and ran well last time despite being buried down inside through the stretch. He appears to be moving in the right direction. Security Risk (#8) hasn’t gotten a fair shot since breaking his maiden, but it remains to be seen how good he actually is.

Selections: 1 – 5 – 8 – 3 

Race 5: TWO TAPS (#7) was supposed to win last time at 4/5 odds, but could not overcome an extremely slow pace. We still believe that she’s best over a route of ground and don’t think we’ve yet seen the best of this filly. While we’re reluctant to take another short price on her, we cannot endorse any of the alternatives. Piccolo Flats (#3) is mildly interesting as she gets to go a one-turn mile over a dry track, but she’s been plagued by inconsistency over the past year.

Selections: 7 – 3 – 2 – 1 

Race 6: The Pace Projector is calling for a fast pace set by speed types Glowing Ember, Summer Breezing, and Latigo Trail. Since a contested pace appears to be inevitable, we’ll take a shot with closer LORD OF LOVE (#4). Others have run faster on occasion, but he consistently throws down speed figures around 100, and that may be good enough to get the job done here if given the right setup. He’s been hindered by slow paces (color-coded in blue) in two of his last three starts. Summer Breezing (#8) is too fast to take a strong stand against, and Draft Day (#5) still has some upside after just two starts but may be overbet.

Selections: 4 – 8 – 5 – 2 

Race 7: Of the recent maiden winners, Strike Midnight (#6) appears to be the horse to beat. He had some trouble in his debut, which was just too short for him, but was much more professional last time, drawing off to a convincing win despite drifting out late. He appears to be ready for a step up in class. However, we’re also interested in a few horses dropping out of stakes—and none more so than long shot PAGAN (#2). Pagan ran a fairly odd race in the Pilgrim. After stalking the pace while tucked into a cozy position in behind the speeds down the backstretch, he basically took himself out of the race around the far turn. However, what’s most odd is that jockey Junior Alvarado apparently made no attempt to prevent it from happening. He really never asked Pagan for run as he dropped back, and he entered the stretch in last place. Yet rather than continuing to fade, he actually accelerated, and was forced to alter course while running by horses—including today’s rival Eidmilaad—while under practically no urging from his rider. We get the feeling that he did not put forth a true effort that day, yet he only lost the race by a few lengths. This runner may have more ability than it appears and he’s going to be a huge price.

Selections: 2 – 6 – 8 – 5 

Race 8: DELIGHTFUL JOY (#3) possesses the tactical speed to be placed up close to likely pacesetter Holiday’s Jewel. The Pace Project is predicting a situation favoring horses near the front, so early position becomes very important. Delightful Joy improved over the summer and appears to be headed in the right direction for trainer Chad Brown. We also want to use fellow three-year-old Pangburn (#8), who exits a tough assignment in the Cotillion, where she earned a 110 speed figure, which puts her solidly in the mix here. We suppose America (#9) is the horse to beat, but we don’t completely trust this plodder in a paceless situation.

Selections: 3 – 8 – 9 – 5 

Race 9: SILVER VIXEN (#5) has raced over turf only once, but that effort produced an 81 speed figure, the highest turf number anyone in this race has recorded. She since has proven that she handles a route of ground on dirt, so the stretch-out on turf is not much of a concern. Out of Nowhere (#6) ran better than it appears when setting a fast pace last time and may be better off trying rating tactics this time. These are the two we’ll focus on in a puzzling finale.

Selections: 5 – 6 – 11 – 9



TimeformUS Analysis for October 29

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Thursday October 29th

Race 1: QUEEN CAROLINE (#4) was bet down to 3/1 odds in her debut, the second choice behind Tap To It. She was off very slowly, rushed up into contention down the backstretch, but then tired badly late. Given the way she stopped so abruptly, we wonder if she might have bled in that race, especially since Michael Matz adds Lasix for her second start. We’re going to guess that the money she took in her debut was meaningful. She should show more speed with a clean break this time.

Selections: 4 – 3 – 2 – 6 

Race 2: Assuming this race is taken off the turf and contested over the main track, BLOOPER (#10) becomes the horse to beat. Tizallheart (#13) and Sequiota (#12),  who would have been two of the top choices on turf, have displayed decent enough dirt form to have a shot.

Selections: 10 – 13 – 12 – 2 


Race 3: TOWN TART (#6) is the horse to beat off her most recent dirt effort against a loaded maiden special weight field at Keeneland. Unless one of the firsters shows speed, she looks like a threat to wire the field on this logical drop in class. Kentucky Road (#2) may not have been facing much in her debut, but she ran well enough after getting shuffled back midway through the race.

Selections: 6 – 2 – 5 – 3

Race 4: Assuming this race is taken off the turf and contested over the main track, EH CUMPARI (#10) would be an intriguing contender if left in the race. His debut over a good track was a fine effort, and he was against a strong track bias in his only other dirt start in the Remsen. If he takes to a sloppy main track, he could post the mild upset. Celebrated Talent (#11) has relished wet tracks in the past and is a threat to wire the field if he’s ready off the layoff.

Selections: 10 – 11 – 1A – 3 

Race 5: SMILING JOHN (#1) has run two very good races since being transferred to trainer Bill Mott. He survived a fast pace to break his maiden and then chased wide last time on a day when the rail was the place to be early in the card. Third place finisher Captain Moss, as well as today’s rivals Bird Prince and Here Comes Tommy, returned out of that race to improve their speed figures in their next start. The mile is a question, but Smiling John’s dam was remarkably versatile, equally effective both sprinting and routing. Union River (#2) has improved recently for Tony Dutrow and will be a late threat if any pace develops.

Selections: 1 – 2 – 4 – 5 

Race 6: Our top pick is PORTFOLIO MANAGER (#5), who was ambitiously spotted in the Grade 1 Champagne last time, but nevertheless ran very well in defeat. We slightly prefer him over Matt King Coal (#2), who actually ran faster in his narrow defeat over a sloppy track, but that came against a much weaker field than what Portfolio Manager was facing. Winning Road (#6) chased a very fast pace set by the promising Pirellone in his debut and has a right to step forward. Finally, Tale of Mist (#1) goes out for Barclay Tagg, who has unveiled a slew of live two-year-olds so far this season. He’s a half-brother to wet-track-loving Tonalist.

Selections: 5 – 2 – 6 – 1 

Race 7: With heavy overnight rain in the forecast, we’re assuming all races will be off the turf. On dirt, we prefer LIFE IN SHAMBLES (#6), who drops in for a tag for the first time after a string of disappointing allowance tries. However, his last race, and only start at six furlongs, might not have been as bad as it appears, since he was up against a slow pace (color-coded in blue). In Trouble (#9) has obviously run plenty of dirt races that would beat this field, but after so many layoffs and now this drop in class, he is not the easiest horse to trust. If the track is still sloppy by post time, mud-loving Saratoga Heater (#4) might be worth a look.

Selections: 6 – 4 – 9 – 5 

Race 8: HOT CITY GIRL (#1) appears to be too quick for her competition. Her last two TimeformUS Speed Figures of 110 and 111 tower over anything her competitors have done recently. She also appears to hold a significant pace advantage in here. The Pace Projector places her on the lead in a situation favoring horses up front. Katie’s Garden (#3) did put up similar figures last fall, but her first start back off the long layoff does not exactly inspire confidence. Bureau de Change (#2), who turns back in distance, and the mudlark Sun and Moon (#5) should round out trifecta positions.

Selections: 1 – 3 – 2 – 5 

Race 9: FORTUNATE SKY (#11) sustained a light bump at the start last time, but was just sluggish thereafter as Eric Cancel allowed him to drop far off the pace. He made a good late run through the lane, but had been left with too much to do. This time, there appears to be enough speed signed on to ensure an honest pace. He’s the horse to beat. A Marked Man (#1) has run well enough on dirt, but he’s had chances in plenty of easy spots and has failed to get it done as of yet.

Selections: 11 – 1 – 7 – 3