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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for October 4

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Sunday October 4
Race 1:  Turf racing is unlikely for Sunday's card, and #6 Star of the Nile may be in a nice spot should the opener be moved to the main track.  She faced a tall order on debut when outrun behind a slow pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded blue) over a track that was favoring speed (note Race Rating Box shaded red).  Dropped for second start by Jason Servis, who gets perfect 100 rating MSW to MCL. #1 Northern Screamer earned TFUS Speed Figures of 78 and 83 on dirt before disappointing as a heavy favorite on the drop last time. Goes off the claim for Steve Asmussen, and she has speed from her inside draw.
Selections:  6-1-8-5
Race 2: #7 Grandpa's Princess contested a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded red) and prevailed over a muddy sealed track last time.  Goes first off the claim for David Jacobson (perfect 100 rating off the claim) while entered right back at an appropriate level, and she still may have some improvement in her.   #5 Perfect Fit turned back to sprint at Saratoga last time, and came through with a solid run for 2nd while earning this field's top last out TFUS Speed Figure (95).  Has been more effective over shorter trips, and she has handled wet tracks.
Selections:  7-5-1-8
Race 3:  #7 Vera's Finally was outrun after a good bump at the start in turf debut.  Siblings have been prolific on dirt, so this surface switch for second start may work for trainer having an excellent year.  #4 Kalabaka fought gamely before falling just short in debut at Saratoga.  Tough if reproducing that effort here, but trainer tends to get the best out of them right away (93 rating with first-time starters; 58 rating with second-time starters).  Pletcher entry of #1 Voided Contract and #1a Lost Raven both figure tough (Pletcher gets perfect 100 rating with 2yos debuting in MCL company).
Selections:  7-1/1a-4-2
Race 4:  #1 Five On a Dime was outrun early after failing to break sharply from the gate on debut, but she raced on gamely late in educational run.  Trainer tends not to have them cranked up right away (Trainer Rating of 10 with first-time starters), but she gets them to improve with racing (85 rating with second-time starters).  #3 Hyper Nation appeared to need a race first time out, and he finished gamely in a good field second time.  Likely to win one of these sooner rather than later.  #4 Felini had adventurous trip first time out behind Width, who is the ML favorite for the Grade 1 Frizette.  Expect improvement as she adds lasix for second start.
Selections:  1-3-4-5
Race 5:  #1 Building Permit couldn't go with blowout winner when returned from a layoff at Saratoga, but she has strong form overall and is going to be hard for this field to beat if we are off the turf, as expected.  #10 Saratiago came through with a strong run from last to break her maiden on the main track last time, while earning a TFUS Speed Figure of 93 that is faster than anything Building Permit has run to date.  #6 Kathy's Humor has run well on turf in last two starts, but she also earned three competitive speed figures on dirt to begin her career, and she has improved since then.
Selections:  1-10-6-4
Race 6:  $1.9 million 2yo in training purchase #2 Inheritance was caught in behind winner Big World first time out, then came home gamely to cut down the margin in promising effort for which she earned a TFUS Speed Figure of 98.  Tough with any improvement.  #5 Carella also finished up gamely in that race while making her debut.  Half-sister to Bernardini figures to enjoy the aded distance of this race for trainer firing on all cylinders at this meet.
Selections:  2-5-4-6
Race 7:  We'll see what this field ultimately looks like on the main track.  There are four MTOs, led by #13 Pierce's Prize, who has so far failed to build upon solid 2yo foundation this year.  #6 Kid Blast is a much better horse on dirt than he is on turf, and he has earned TFUS Speed Figures for his last two wins (95-99) that suggest he will be tough in this spot.  #15 Dettifoss faced a weak field when defeating maidens last time, but he had always shaped with potential, and he appeared to be over his troubling gate issues with the blinkers removed.
Selections:  6-15-13-14
Race 8:  #1 True Romance is off the layoff, but she has speed in a race lacking much of same, and her TFUS Speed Figures stand out in this field.  #6 Equilateral has been a disappointment overall, but we do prefer her going shorter, and she handles a wet track.  Needs to deliver, and soon.
Selections:  1-6-2-5
Race 9:  #5 More Than Rainbows is an unknown on dirt, but she has an up-front running style, which is suited to the main track and to this race (see Pace Projector), and her pedigree suggests dirt sprinting may be up her alley (95 Breeding Rating).  This is the right level. #6 More Stormyweather makes second start for Jamie Ness (90 rating second with trainer) after wide trip on turf.  Past dirt form makes her tough in here.  #8 Tachiello drops again looking for second win.  Good try on dirt two back, and she is fine over a wet track.  #4 Bi Light of Day is tough to take on top at 1 for 28, but she's better sprinting and on dirt.
Selections:  5-6-8-4

TimeformUS Analysis for October 3

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Saturday October 3
Race 1:  #3 River Dell went well for 2nd behind Champagne-bound Tale of S'avall in 90 TFUS Speed Figure debut at Saratoga.  Experience edge over well-bred and well-connected #5 Party Barn may make the difference.  Party Barn, out of the talented Hystericalady, debuts for hot trainer who does well with first-time starters (92 rating).  #6 Basic Hero raced wide and gave way in turf sprint debut.  Good post for second start, and his dam was a stakes-winning dirt sprinter who handled slop. 
Selections:  3-5-6-1
Race 2:  Entry-level allowance scheduled for turf likely to be moved to a wet main track.  We are wondering if #10 Security Risk might not stay in to try dirt.  He has improved as a 3yo for Shug, and there is plenty of dirt (and wet) on the dam side of his pedigree (Smuggler a multiple Grade 1 winner on the main track; second dam the great Inside Information).  #8 Escape to the Moon has improved since returning as a new gelding this year, and he handles a wet track.   #6 Againsome has earned all of his best career TFUS Speed Figures over wet tracks.  
Selections:  10-8-6-5
Race 3:  #7 Readtheprospectus handles wet, and he is a runner when he is right.  Back on the beam last time when dropped in class, and Jacobson gets a perfect 100 Trainer Rating off the claim, and a 95 turf to dirt.  #3 Frazil is back in form recently for Steve Klesaris, and he projects to be on the early lead to his advantage, according to Pace Projector.  #2 Son of a General makes first start back from a long layoff on the drop, but he owns plenty of races that make him tough, and he has won in the slop.
Selections:  7-3-2-1
Race 4:  #5 Crafty Dreamer owns a top TFUS Speed Figure that fits well in this field, and we prefer him over these middle distance, one-turn races.  Switches from turf to dirt, and there is plenty of pace for him to close into, assuming the field stays intact.  #4 Unrivaled is interesting off the trainer change to Jimmy Jerkens (87 rating first with trainer) for Team Valor.  Has flashed ability at times, but must break with the field.  #7 Financial Modeling has come back running from a long layoff for Chad Brown.  Had a perfect trip to win last time.  
Selections:  5-4-7-1a
Race 5:  #2 Honor Code cuts back to one-turn mile following relentless rally to close down the talented Liam's Map in the Whitney upstate.  Fires every time, and is better than these horses with his good race.  #5 Red Vine has improved on dirt, and has earned TFUS Speed Figures recently (126-124-124) that will get him a look at Honor Code.  Cuts back to a better distance for him, and he should have the jump.  #6 Mylute unlikely to out-close Honor Code, but he is a one-turn mile kind of horse, and he has improved for Pletcher.  Connections of #1 Appealing Tale unlikely to be pleased with the conditions, but he has speed from the inside to go along with his graded stakes credentials. 
Selections:  2-5-6-1
Race 6:  Flower Bowl goes through defending champ #1 Stephanie's Kitten.  Multiple Grade 1 winner handles give in the ground, and she seemed to get back to one of her good races at Arlington last time.  Pair of imports in #7 Mutatis Mutandis and #8 Curvy offer intrigue, the latter a streaking 3yo with upside, the former finding career-best form this year as a closer.  
Selections:  7-1-8-5
Race 7:  All graded stakes Pick 4 kicks off with the Grade 1 Frizette for 2yo fillies.  Euro import #3 Nemoralia has been impressive over there while appearing to have more in the tank.  She has handled synthetic and turf without issue, and her Breeding Rating of 90 for dirt suggests she can handle this surface, as well.  May be hard on this field if she does.  #2 Width was an impressive debut winner with a TFUS Speed Figure of 90.  Faces tough distance stretch-out from 5.5 furlongs, but she appears to have some talent.  #1 She's All Ready is a NY-bred stepping up, but she dominated pair of sprints at Saratoga and her figures say she fits.
Selections:  3-2-1-6
Race 8:  #5 Ralis is plenty experienced and already a Grade 1 winner, both to his advantage in the Grade 1 Champagne.  Added distance shouldn't be of concern considering how he finished off the Hopeful.  #2 Greenpointcrusader has flashed potential while appearing to be in need of some racing through two progressive starts.  Upside is all there, and he is bred to relish a wet track.  #9 Portfolio Manager was a good 2nd in what was perhaps the strongest 2yo MSW field for colts at Saratoga this summer.  Tough spot for just his second start, but he may be a good one.  #4 Sail Ahoy has a big pedigree for top connections, and he is the lone entrant with a win over this distance.  Will need to do better than that this time, but he is supposed to continue coming forward.
Selections:  2-5-9-4
Race 9:  #6 Courtier has come back from a layoff to pair up 115 TFUS Speed Figures with fresh lasix.  Talent has always been there, and his versatility is a positive.  #11 Tale of Life couldn't get clear in the stretch, and finally bulled his way clear very late before flying home to get up in stateside debut, from which he was justly DQ'd.  Tough post for this distance on the inner turf, but he can run.  #2 Vision Perfect hasn't progressed following victorious 3yo debut, but he may be better off over this turf course, and he likes give in the ground.  #5 Takeover Target is talented, and he won impressively over a yielding course first time out.  Last was a disaster, but he's better than that.
Selections:  6-11-2-5
Race 10:  Short field of familiar rivals in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  #6 Tonalist is looking to defend his title, and will be afforded no excuses this time.  Wet track a slight concern, as even though he won the Peter Pan in the slop here last year, he didn't appear to be particularly comfortable with the going that day.  #2 Coach Inge continues his ascent for Pletcher following 124 TFUS Speed Figure performance when 2nd to Liam's Map in the Woodward.  Good trip coming from the inside.  #4 Effinex has improved significantly this year.  Handles distance just fine, and he was a convincing winner in the mud in 2015 debut.
Selections:  6-2-4-1
Race 11:  #9 Gift Box debuted in one of the best 2yo MSW races for colts at Saratoga, and he finished up with interest after getting away at the back of the field.  Expecting some improvement second time, and distance should be no issue.  #1a Revved Up figures to appreciate added real estate offered here after sprinting last time.  #8 Matt King Coal took a run to contention before getting outfinished in turf route debut.  Entered MTO this time by trainer having excellent year with her 2yos.  #6 Snag is a full brother to the graded stakes winning dirt router Intense Holiday, who raced for these connections a few years ago.
Selections:  9-1a-8-2/2b

TimeformUS Analysis for October 2

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Friday October 2
Race 1:  #1 Stevie's Moonshot appears to have found a likely spot on the big class drop for Pletcher in the opener.  He's not much horse, and we understand anyone who wants to take a chance against him, but a repeat of his lone main track start to date would likely do.  #5 Lightning Ron ran the best race of his career over this track and trip three starts back, and then picked up his maiden win in career start #21 when last seen.  Trainer very quietly doing well with limited stock.
Selections:  1-5-2-4
Race 2:  If we stay on turf, #2 Tiz a Chance made a promising debut in lone start as a 2yo, and he returned with a solid try off the layoff upstate.  Trainer gets 85 rating second off the layoff.  #1 Watch the Tie is a player on either surface.  We liked his turf debut just fine, and the 92 TFUS Speed Figure earned on dirt one start prior will play well if we are off.  #7 Super Psyche is the horse to beat on  the main track following 97 TFUS Speed Figure effort going longer upstate.  Cutback a positive for him, but we'll still give the nod to Watch the Tie on dirt.
Selections:  2-1-10-11
Race 3:  #7 Boone Station seems viable on either surface, and he has speed from a good outside post.  Trainer does very well off of layoffs.  #1a Promise and Hope rallied mildly from off the pace after taking up a bit early on turf last time.  Would like to give him one more chance on dirt, where he has faced better horses and had some excuses.  #3 Irish Cat has faced much better horses than this on grass, and his dirt debut upstate was good enough for a field like this with a TFUS Speed Figure of 87.  Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice.
Selections:  7-3-1a-5
Race 4:  We shudder to think what the 4th will look like if forced to the main track.  On turf, #1 Reach for Yield at least has acceptable recent form and repeat of 101 TFUS Speed Figure earned last time would be plenty good enough.  Is reasonably dropped another notch by his top trainer.  #2 Charity Reins is about out of chances, but his good race gives him a look, and he is dropping back down.  #3 Blue Shark has been ok on either surface, but his better form from earlier in the year seems to be eluding him now.
Selections:  1-2-3-4
Race 5:  #3 Memory Keeper showed a flash of run in green debut, then took a speed try before giving way in the mud second time out.  Drops in class after going back to the drawing board, and projects to be on the early lead.  #2 Norm the Giant earned this field's top TFUS Speed Figure when settling for second best last time.  Steps back up for new trainer, who does a good job but is 0 for his last 20 off the claim.
Selections:  3-2-1-4
Race 6:  #2 All Mine Tonight can handle either surface, but looks tough on turf as she drops for third start off the layoff.  #3 Saratoga Karaoke drops back to a better level after chasing tougher at Saratoga.  Good effort behind a wire-to- wire winner two back.  #5 Jennys Creek doesn't win often enough for our liking, but she continues in good form for a hot trainer, and the turn-back is a positive for her.  On dirt we prefer #7 Annie Walker, as she is a better dirt horse and is perfectly drawn on the outside with some speed.  MTO #1 Saharan Serenade, who drops down for the first time after facing better horses recently, is tough if we are off the grass.
Selections:  2-3-5-6  
Race 7:  Excellent race over 7 furlongs if we manage to stay on turf, and we'll try #10 Hear the Footsteps, who cuts back to a better distance for him while taking a step back in class. On dirt, the race goes through MTO #14 Saturday's Charm, who has re-found his form for David Jacobson recently, though he pulled a masterful hang-job here 8 days ago.  #3 Non Stop has back races that make him tough, and he also seems back to good form since being claimed by Jason Servis.  Game try most recently trying to close while down on the inside.
Selections:  10-3-8-9
Race 8:  #8 Lehigh Five has a layoff to overcome, but he was a highly impressive debut winner in lone sprint to date, and we aren't holding route try against him.  Lands in field full of horses who have had their chances.  #2 Giantinthemoonlite owns all of the fast figures in this field, but he continues to come up short at the end, and is tough to take at any short price at this point.  #4 Candid Desire failed to get involved vs. pair of better fields at Saratoga in last two starts, but he owns races that give him a look here, and he'll be a price.
Selections:  8-2-4-1
Race 9:  #8 Ask the Lonely was off slow and outrun early, but she made an eye-catching run to catch up to the field and carried it a long way before flattening out late in promising debut.  Trainer gets 86 rating with second-time starters.  #12 Louisville First got in educational debut behind Frizette-bound She's All Ready, then upped her game while settling for 2nd behind stakes repeater Melodic last time.  Dam posted both career wins on turf if we are on, and she's obviously tough if we are off.  #13 Eloweasel dueled a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded red) in race that went to closers first time out.  Adds lasix for second start, if she gets in.  #2 Lady's First has improved in all three starts, and has handled both surfaces.  Gets positive trainer change for this.
Selections:  8-12-2-13

TimeformUS Analysis for October 1

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Thursday October 1
Race 1:  #4 Harlans Belle took a speed try vs. better last time.  Effort at this level two back was a good one while marching up wide through the turn to take over the lead, and then battling gamely to the finish with #2 Breach of Duty.  #6 Saluda has a good post on the outside from which to use her speed, which should play well in this field, according to the TimeformUS Pace Projector.  New trainer gets perfect 100 rating off the claim.
Selections:  4-6-2-1
Race 2:  While they have #8 Arana to beat on turf, that horse was given a flawless trip and ride to prevail on the drop last time.  #3 The Ghost Bride has stepped up in class for last two.  Looked like a winner two back before veering in sharply and losing her rider, and contested the pace in a race that was won last-to-first by Morethanawarning last time.  On dirt, #9 La Inesperada likely would have won last time with a better trip, and we'll take her over the perennial bridesmaid #5 Shades of Indigo, who finally drops in class.  
Selections:  3-8-4-6
Race 3:  On dirt, #5 Securitiz figures tough to beat at a short price, though #1a Kick Off is ok, and ran well when trying to close against a speed-favoring track (note Race Rating Box shaded red) in his 3yo debut upstate.  On turf, well-connected and well-bred #2 Red Guard flashed potential as a 2yo and trainer gets strong 95 rating off the layoff.  ML favorite #7 Infinite Wisdom had a good trip stalking front-running Battle Red and couldn't catch.  He won't get another chance from us.  #6 Uptown Joe was wide throughout in that race, which featured a slow pace, and has managed to keep himself more in the game early in the past.
Selections:  2-6-3-7
Race 4:  #6 Corintian's Joy switches from turf to dirt and drops in class (83 Trainer Rating for Schettino MSW to MCL) after cutting the pace in turf route last time.  Debut sprinting on dirt vs. MSW company was a decent effort.  #8 Wiredancer debuts in good-looking spot for a hot trainer who gets a perfect 100 rating with 2yos.  
Selections:  6-8-7-5
Race 5:  #7 Enjoy the Show returns to level of good runnerup effort two back after 100 TFUS Speed Figure performance vs. better horses last time.  Seems a good spot, unless #6 Burndines gets loose on the lead.  Burndines sat a perfect trip and took over strongly to a clear lead, but was gunned down by a last-to-first winner on closing day at Saratoga.  Has improved in all three starts this year.  On dirt, MTO #3 G R's Giant is logical, if not particularly compelling, and #5 Chunnel has solid form on the main track to get to, at a better price. 
Selections:  7-6-5-2
Race 6:  #12 Ranger's Express was widest trying to rally on turf two starts back, and she went early in off the turfer last time, which forced her to carry her run a long way.  Like this shorter trip for her, and she'll be fine should we be off the turf again.  Of the five exiting the finale from September 6th at Saratoga, we could only take #7 Congress Park, who was contesting the pace all the way in a race that ultimately fell apart at the end.  Like her newfound aggressive style with this rider.  #9 Fourstar Crook is a logical player making her second start as a 3yo for Chad Brown following career-best 96 TFUS Speed Figure earned off the layoff.
Selections:  12-7-9-6
Race 7:  #7 Know It All Anna goes first off the claim for Linda Rice from good outside post following 92 TFUS Speed Figure effort in her first start as a 3yo.  Posted lone win, and career top figure of 94, in the mud last year.  #5 Autumn Squall is a dangerous speed switching from turf to dirt.  96 TFUS Speed Figure earned for lone dirt try to date makes her a player here.
Selections:  7-5-6-1
Race 8:  The three favorites for today's featured 8th race are stacked outside. They all have a history of coming up short at the end, and we don't need any of them on top at short prices.  #1 Ancient Goddess drops out of stakes company for the first time since arriving from France last summer, and she should have some pace to close into this time after chasing the freakish Lady Shipman last time.
Selections:  1-8-7-9
Race 9:  #6 Pine Ridge Forest got the best of a fast and contested pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded red) and only failed late after drifting badly in the stretch of turf debut at Saratoga.  That was his first start back from a long layoff, and he may be tough here if a bit tighter for trainer who gets 93 rating second off the layoff.  #1 Elusive New Yorker has some ability, but also some stamina issues.  Tough go last time after getting pinched back at the start and then bumped at the top of the stretch, and the class drop is an obvious benefit to him.  #11 El Genio came through with perhaps the best effort of his career last time.  May be a better dirt horse.
Selections:  6-1-11-10