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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for September 30

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Wednesday September 30
Race 1:  #3 Songa takes a step back after facing tougher at Monmouth in last two starts (Race Ratings 110 and 108 for those two races, vs. today's rating of 103).  Earned competitive TFUS Speed Figures while trying gamely in those starts, and has faster races in his past.  #6 Narvaez has a good post on the outside for dangerous trainer, and he also drops after facing some tougher competition recently.  Overall record fails to inspire confidence, however.  #5 Castaway drops significantly, as well, but he has not been seen at his best recently, and we are concerned that he has been kept out of NY for the most part since arriving in Jacobson's barn.
Selections:  3-6-5-1
Race 2:  #1 Triple Play was dropped in class and promptly bombed on turf at Saratoga, so it may not be the best sign in the world that he now returns for $25k off the claim by Linda Rice, but he returns to dirt, where all three of his races are much faster than anything his competition has ever run, and he projects to be on a clear early lead.  #5 Devilish Grin gave way in odd race won by huge longshot last time, but he was in good form prior to that, and seems a good fit here.
Selections:  1-5-7-2
Race 3:  #6 Fashion Fund has returned in career-best form as a 4yo, winning her first start of the year convincingly before putting up consecutive TFUS Speed Figure tops of 115 and 116 in her next two starts.  Like her cutting back here after facing pair of tough fields going longer.  #7 Tango Time takes next step after burying entry-level allowance foes on the Travers undercard with a perfect trip.  Earned 115 TFUS Speed Figure despite a tough trip behind a slow pace in stateside debut, which came off a long layoff.
Selections:  6-7-3-2
Race 4:  #4 Crown the Kitten endured an impossible trip when falling just shy of his winning entrymate at this level last time.  TFUS Speed Figures continue to improve, and he gets a positive rider change for this.  #6 Mark My Style has found his best form since switched back to his preferred turf following the claim by sharp connections, and he owns the top last-out TFUS Speed Figure in the field (98).  Badly compromised by a slow pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded blue) when wired by #2 Ex Ex Ex two starts back.  #5 Andalusite looks for third straight with this rider aboard on a quick turnaround, after earning competitive TFUS Speed Figures recently.
Selections:  4-6-5-1
Race 5:  #5 Tiz for Daddy earned TFUS Speed Figure of 92 on debut (top fast track figure in this field), before stretching out in tough spot in second start.  Tough trip chasing five-wide throughout MCL try off the layoff; he makes his first start for Brad Cox right back at the same level (96 rating off the claim for Cox).  #10 Dark Moon makes 3yo debut off the layoff as a new gelding for trainer off to good start here.  He flashed big speed two starts back before giving way, and is dangerous if bringing a try like that one to this spot.  #4 Nicholson bombed in his return from a layoff at Saratoga, but he was back in form in solid runnerup try second time back, and he owns back races that give him a big look here.
Selections:  5-10-4-3
Race 6:  #11 Miss Matzoball has long layoff to overcome, but she ran well in both turf starts as a 2yo, including 96 TFUS Speed Figure blowout on season finale that puts her on par with this field.  Tough with natural improvement.  #10 Full Tap was jammed up a bit behind front-running winner last time, and fell just short of catching at the end.  #7 Slam Chowder has transfered good dirt form to turf in last two starts, and she has the speed to be involved from the outset. 
Selections:  11-10-7-6
Race 7:  #10 Courageisamajority has improved from start to start since stretched out in distance (TFUS Speed Figures for turf routes: 75-81-91-100-107) and she was game despite being bothered twice in the stretch in tough open-company allowance last time.  #8 Corner Three had a tough trip two starts back, but has been clearly best in her other two starts.  Plenty of room to improve still.  #7 Capriana received poor ride and wound up jammed in behind a slow pace all the way last time, and she never came clear to run in the stretch.  
Selections:  10-8-7-1
Race 8:  #6 Make the Moment is a solid closing sprinter in race that is not lacking for early speed, and she does not mind a wet track, which may come into play on Wednesday.  #7 Frivolity had no chance when chasing talented stablemate Room for Me last time, and she was up against it vs. La Verdad in her two starts prior to that.  Better spot here off the trainer change to Steve Klesaris, and she is perfectly drawn outside.  #2 Angel Code is quick early, and repeat of last-out TFUS Speed Figure of 110 makes her tough here, but she is at her best when able to control, and there is other speed signed on here.  
Selections:  6-7-1-3
Race 9:  #4 Esther the Queen figures to appreciate this class drop, along with this cutback in distance, and she becomes much the horse to beat if this race comes off the turf based on main track debut.  #8 Super City is running out of chances, but she has run legitimately well more than once, and hasn't had the best of trips recently.  #5 Weather Girl couldn't reach front-running winner when dropped to this level last time, and lost 2nd late to Ten Penny Princess, who came back to win here last weekend.  Rates another chance.  
Selections:  4-8-5-9

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TimeformUS Analysis for September 27

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Sunday September 27
Race 1:  #5 Melodic kept up behind a quick pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded red) and then drove down the leaders in the stretch in solid debut effort.  Good post on the outside, and TFUS Speed Figure of 80 earned for that first run plays well in this field.  #2 Sudden Surprise had trouble at the start before rushing up first time out, and she was game, but only second best, to the talented She's All Ready in stakes try last time.  #3 Frosty Margarita was confidently ridden on the outside before engaging Gregorian Gold in the stretch and going clear last time, and that rival returned to win a stakes race at Finger Lakes in her next start.
Selections:  5-2-3
Race 2:  #7 Moneyinyour Pocket has enough speed to keep close in a race that favors runners on or near the lead, according to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, and he is currently holding the best form of these.  #1 Golden Itiz drops for second start off the claim after being listed as a vet scratch here 10 days ago.  Went well in prior stint for this trainer, and he can also keep himself up close.  #5 Cease drops for the third straight time off the claim as he continues search for first win since New Year's Eve 2013.
Selections:  7-1-5-4
Race 3:  #5 Championofthenile figures tough if showing up with something approaching impressive maiden score with a TFUS Speed Figure of 104.  Good post on the outside in this short field.  #1 Get Jets put up impressive maiden win of his own first time out, and his was accomplished with a strong late run from off the pace.  Trainer excels with second-time starters (98 rating) and last-out maiden winners (100 rating).  #2 Manipulated impressed in debut win when powering down the outside in a $125k stakes race, and he was drifting in all through the stretch when forced to chase #4 Sudden Surprise all the way last time.  Adds lasix for this.
Selections:  1-5-2
Race 4:  #2 Sister Sophia has looked good in all three starts so far, and she just missed after taking a game run up the hedge last time with a new top TFUS Speed Figure of 104.  Should have some pace to close into in this race.  #3 Vicki's Dancer is a gamer, and she consistently runs races that make her tough in this spot.  Just outfinished by Sister Sophia last time, and she was gamely second best to the talented Old Harbor two starts back.
Selections:  2-3-9-5
Race 5:  #8 Castor failed to break sharply from the gate before putting in a game wide run to contention over a speed-favoring track on debut (note Race Rating Box shaded red).  Can do better second time out from good post.  #6 True Pleasure got herself trapped inside while the impressive Width was powering away down the outside in the stretch on August 23rd.  Has run well in both starts while settling for second best.  #3 Libreta took a wide run and continued on gamely behind True Pleasure first time out.  Adds lasix for second start.  #4 Mood Swing is a dangerous firster for debut ace Rick Violette, and she has attracted Castellano for this.
Selections:  8-6-4-3
Race 6:  #1 Manofmanyvirtues is back to turf following failed dirt experiment.  Was against the flow of a closers race two back, and he was a convincing winner one start prior over Decent, who has continued in good form since.  #6 Ziggy the Great is better sprinting on grass, but he has rarely raced at this level over sprint distances.  Last turf sprint try, which came vs. better horses on July 19th, was a good effort in traffic all through the stretch.  #11 Saltine Warrior is an infrequent winner, but he is another who has been kept to better races right along.  
Selections:  1-11-6-4
Race 7:  Chad Brown sends out favored entry of #1 America's Kitten and #1a Tweet Kitten.  We prefer the latter, who had a trip last time and can get the distance, but we aren't thrilled with either at a short price.  #5 King of Spades had no chance in debut that was dominated up front on a slow pace, but he improved in second start when 2nd best to an impressive winner.  #2 Alcazar de Maram was caught wide every step of the way on debut.  Well-bred colt eligible to do better with that one behind him.
Selections:  5-2-1/1a-8
Race 8:  #3 Llanita makes stateside debut for Chad Brown after game try closing from last in stakes company last time at Deauville.  Lasix on.  #2 Tin Type Gal had real trouble in debut that was rained off to the main track.  Had a perfect trip when stretched out for second start, but settled things quickly there with a good finish and a 92 TFUS Speed Figure.  #1 Time and Motion was taken back to last and did not have an easy trip thereafter in educational debut.  Well-connected filly can do better.  
Selections:  3-2-1-9
Race 9:  #6 Touchofstarquality has earned consecutive new TFUS Speed Figure tops in three starts this year, and he has posted convincing victories in both fast track starts here.  Don't think trying to rally along the rail did him any favors at Saratoga.  #4 North Slope has run well since switched to dirt, and he was dead game last time after getting the best of a battle for the lead, only to be closed down late.  #5 Don Dulce improved off the claim for Bruce Levine and may well have won that race if able to get clear sooner.  
Selections:  6-4-5-2
Race 10:  #2 Cosmic Tale should appreciate this cutback in distance.  Prior try at the trip came vs. better horses, and she earned career best TFUS Speed Figure of 93 there.  #1 Coramoss is the new face to take seriously in this field, and she is first off the claim for Bruce Levine (84 rating off the claim) after chasing a pair of next-out winners on a solid pace last time.  #4 Irish Actor put in a nice run from way back in debut at this level, then was hiked up into MSW race that featured a fast pace last time.  Back down.  
Selections:  2-1-4-12

TimeformUS Analysis for September 26

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Saturday September 26th
Race 1:  #8 Captain Moss ran in a pair of very tough races to begin his career, and earned a TFUS Speed Figure of 85 the last time he raced on dirt, which was back in April.  Has improved on turf since, but we wonder if he wasn't initially claimed for dirt, and he switches back now for hot trainer who is strong with the turf to dirt move (96 rating).  #1 Alex the Terror took a game try on a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded red) when switched from turf to dirt at Saratoga.  TFUS Speed Figures of 103 and 99 for last two dirt sprint starts make him the horse to beat.  
Selections:  8-1-5-9
Race 2:  #4 Oscar Mike has speed, but he had little chance to go with powerful winner Manhattan Dan, who came back to run a good 3rd in graded stakes company at Woodbine in his next start.  May be able to make the lead in this spot.  #3 Rappel ran into a traffic jam in unlucky debut, and he was always in behind front-running Ian Smith last time, before making a game late surge when finally clear.  #5 Light the Night was off the pace when behind Rappel last time, but had a good finish of his own, and is eligible to improve quickly.  
Selections:  4-3-5-6
Race 3:  #9 You Got It was away running from the rail in debut, but was forced to chase a heavily favored second-time starter from the Pletcher barn and tired in the stretch.  Moves outside for trainer pulling 90 rating with second-time starters.  #2 Governor Malibu chased wide in that same race, and finished gamely to be 2nd best.  Clement also does well with second-time starters (96 rating).  Pletcher firster #5 Mountain Music Man brought $450k earlier this year, and he is a half to the talented turf stakes winner Tourist.  #1 Blugrascat's Smile is out of the prolific dam Serenity's Smile.  An 11-time winner herself, she has so far dropped Johannesburg Smile (8 wins, $523k in earnings); Wildcat's Smile (4 wins, $420k in earnings); and Atlantic's Smile (5 wins, $290k in earnings).  
Selections:  9-2-5-1
Race 4:  #2 Raffies Bay and #3 Jax Heritage are the only ones we really want in this race.  Raffie's Bay wasn't at his best upstate, but he had been in improved form this year prior to heading up there, and he defeated Jax Heritage with a good late run here back in May.  Jax Heritage is handier, and can get the jump, but he is also likely to be a much shorter price, and may not hold the kind of advantage to warrant a big discrepancy.  
Selections:  2-3-5-6
Race 5:  #2 Wedding Toast looks tough in the Grade 1 Beldame following back-to-back convincing wins with TFUS Speed Figures of 116 and 119.  Concerned that she has missed some important races during the summer, but she is tough with anything close to her best.  3yo #1 Curalina may pose the biggest threat as she cuts back to a more comfortable distance.  She's talented, with more upside still, and she doesn't figure to be compromised by pace. 
Selections:  2-1-3-4
Race 6:  Tough allowance for fillies and mares on the grass will have a fast pace, according to the TimeformUS Pace Projector.  We'll hope that suits #2 Katama, who showed something to work on while closing down a fast pace in sprint debut.  Seemed the type to improve from that effort, and we aren't holding stakes try on synthetic last time against her.  #9 Robe broke through with easy maiden win for $75k upstate after disappointing one start prior down here.  We didn't care for the field she beat last time, but at least she did it convincingly with a new top figure of 99.  #7 Neck of the Moon is logical for Chad Brown after showing that she can route in her three starts this year.  
Selections:  2-9-7-5
Race 7:  Grade 2 Gallant Bloom features the fleet and talented #2 La Verdad.  She has earned a series of TFUS Speed Figures that make her faster than these horses, and she looms the controlling speed once again, so they may all be hoping that the final half-furlong does her in.  #5 Street Story has been in improved form this year, and we thought she was most affected by the late scratch of La Verdad in the Ballerina, as she was forced to keep closer to the pace.  Like her better making one run.  #3 Room for Me contested the pace and was outfinished late in game Ballerina try.  She's been quite a claim for Jacobson, and her dead game try vs. La Verdad in the Vagrancy back in May points her out as the main threat.
Selections:  2-5-3-6
Race 8:  #1 Ray's the Bar makes stateside debut for Chad Brown following promising debut at Ascot back in July, where he made a strong late run to track down a leader who wasn't stopping.  According to our colleagues in London he seems the type to improve, as his prior trainer is not one notes for success first time out.  #5 Isotherm prepped on dirt before switching to grass and dueling down an odds-on favorite with a TFUS Speed Figure of 93.  Forward to go.  #6 Eidmilaad has a big pedigree for a top trainer, and he finished his debut win off nicely with a strong late run.  Lasix goes on for second start.
Selections:  1-5-6-2
Race 9:  Grade 1 Vosburgh goes through #7 Rock Fall.  He is the shortest of prices on the ML as he looks for his seventh straight win, and second Grade 1 following a career-best performance to overcome a slow pace at Saratoga.  #1 Palace has been unable to get any momentum going this year, following a stellar 2-14 campaign that saw him win two Grade 1s.  Thought he ran well last time after a very awkward stumble at the start put him out of position, and his trainer does well second off the layoff (90 rating).  #6 Salutos Amigos owns a best race that is on par with Palace, but he has been unable to get over the hump at this level.
Selections:  7-1-6-5
Race 10:  #5 Slumber has improved, belatedly, for Chad Brown, and he finally became a Grade 1 winner three starts back.  Encountered trouble in each of his last two starts, and is a big threat here, assuming a clean trip.  #3 Big Blue Kitten fires every time, is already a Grade 1 winner over this trip, and owns a powerful late kick, which is expected to be set up by his front-running stablemate, #7 Shining Copper.  #1 Red Rifle is in career form right now for Todd Pletcher, having run the three best races of his life on the way in.  He's had one perfect trip after another, but he gets this distance, and figures to pull another trip from his cozy inside post.
Selections:  5-3-1-4
Race 11:  #6 Fire Away rode the rail behind a fast pace set by #3 Macagone early in the Saratoga meet, and was outfinished late by closers who were out in the clear.  On a nice improving pattern for trainer who brings them along like no one else.  #8 Grey Wizard was outside and closing and closing along with everyone else in new top TFUS Speed Figure performance last time.  Impressed in maiden win two starts back with a big finish into a stronger pace.  #5 Ocean Telegraph isn't helped by the presence of Macagone, but he has looked good at times, and makes his first start as a gelding in this spot.
Selections:  6-8-5-2

TimeformUS Analysis for September 25

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Friday September 25th
Race 1:  Lack of pace in the opener hands the early advantage to #5 Sarlef, but we aren't sure that he's good enough to take advantage, and the one-mile distance of this race does him no favors.  #1 H Man is entered in reasonable spot for first time since getting into form earlier this year (Race Ratings for last four races were: 98-91-95-98, vs. today's 87).  #3 Combat Diver has the back class, but he was a negative drop down toward the end of the Saratoga meet, and his new trainer, while dangerous off the claim overall with a 95 rating, is just 3 for his last 42 off the claim on dirt in NY.  
Selections:  1-3-6-5
Race 2:  #4 Sister Superior was green early, but she raced on well for 2nd behind a wire-to-wire winner on debut, and she had no chance after giving away all position in order to save some ground from the far outside post in her last turf race.  Drops for this, and the 93 TFUS Speed Figure earned for that last start on turf is the top figure in this field.  #7 Ten Penny Princess has done well in all four turf starts, and she put in a pair of good efforts at this level at Saratoga.
Selections:  4-7-5-9
Race 3:  #1 Bellamy Brew seemed the less-fancied of a Jacobson entry over this distance at Saratoga most recently, but he went straight to the lead and was never in danger in convincing win with TFUS Speed Figure of 99.  Enters right back at the same level, and he projects to be the main speed once again.  Mate #1a Johannesburg Smile continues his descent while looking for the right field.  Closing style complements the speed of Bellamy Brew, assuming both go.  #5 In the Beat earned competitive TFUS Speed Figures two and three starts back, and he will be a price as he drops back down after a wide trip last time.
Selections:  1/1a-5-3-6
Race 4:  #7 Animal Appeal has run very well in both turf starts to date, and earned a field-best TFUS Speed Figure of 99 last time while forced to gun it from her outside post.  Cutback to 6 furlongs for this figures to be to her benefit.  #9 I Dream of Candy upped her game in turf debut last time despite settling for 2nd best.  Had no real excuse at the end of that race, but she's lightly raced and eligible to continue improving.  #1 Donatienne tries sprinting after pair of even efforts around two turns upstate.  Half-sister to the fleet Trinniberg may appreciate the change.
Selections:  7-9-1-4
Race 5:  #11 Lady Liana has been at her best routing on turf, and she appears to be a good fit in this field.  Has outside post to overcome, but her positional speed is an asset.  Entry of #1 Always Home and #1a Life's a Stage are both capable in a race like this, and lower-profile connections figure to keep the price fair.  Don't think #7 Chow Fun was getting a big piece last time, but she was in traffic in the stretch before being badly shut off at the 1/16th pole, and it certainly cost her something.  Tough in here if finally ready to round back into form.
Selections:  11-1/1a-7-2
Race 6:  #4 Sailmate is better going shorter, so we like him turning back to this distance as he makes his first start for David Jacobson (100 rating off the claim).  Unclear what he is still capable of, but he makes his third start back from a long layoff here, and he has back races that would be hard on this field.  #1 Drama King came home gamely to close down returning Uncle Sigh in nice rebound effort last time.  Handy running style projects to have him in good position throughout.  #5 Possillicious won his first start off the claim for Bruce Levine, then took a game run up the rail to duel with the eventual winner in a tougher spot last time, and matched career-best TFUS Speed Figure of 104.  
Selections:  4-1-5-2
Race 7:  #10 Strike Midnight was not sharp from the gate in sprint debut, and he proceeded to race greenly while making a run in educational debut.  Pedigree suggests more distance will be a benefit to him.  #7 Steamboat Bill and #11 Its All Relevant both had speed and stayed stubbornly while settling for second best to different well-bred firsters from the Chad Brown barn in their most recent starts.  #5 Just the Zip goes for trainer who quietly does excellent work with her first-time starters (87 rating), while #2 Energy Policy is yet another in the long line of prospects for Chad Brown.
Selections:  10-5-2-11
Race 8:  #6 Mills is a good fit at this level, and he is interesting off the re-claim for Bill Mott, who is also listed as owner this time.  Was finishing gamely when ridden straight into traffic in the stretch last time.  #4 Bigger Picture's last is a toss after his saddle slipped.  Prior efforts on turf suggest that he is a handful in here.  #1 Tattenham has spent much of his career going long, but he can be effective over this shorter trip, and he is getting some major class relief today.
Selections:  6-4-1-3
Race 9:  #1 Doubledown Again found improved form in extended run for Michelle Nevin, and he may find some pace to close into in this race.  Tough, assuming he can continue for new trainer, who pulls a strong 98 rating off the claim.  #7 Mewannarose showed improved form throughout 2014, earning TFUS Speed Figures that would make him tough in this spot.  Trainer gets a strong 95 rating off of layoffs.  #4 Eye Luv Lulu was an easy winner on the cutback at Monmouth last time with a TFUS Speed Figure of 112.  Tactical running style a positive in this field.
Selections:  1-7-4-5
Race 10:  #10 Caldera was outrun and failed to impact a much better field while passing some tired horses late in lone start to date back in January.  Logical starting back on the drop for trainer pulling perfect 100 rating MSW to MCL.  #6 Brevard closed gamely up the inside to fall just short of front-running winner in improved second start at Saratoga.  Drops a bit.  #4 Fuhrious Warrior was chasing wide in that same race, and he tired in the stretch after that tough trip.  Has some races that give him a chance, and he's a price.  
Selections:  4-10-6-5