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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for September 24

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Thursday September 24th
Race 1:  Steeplechase
Race 2:  Steeplechase
Race 3:  #5 Dreamsdocometrue faced some good fields on dirt out of town.  Trainer does well switching from turf to dirt (95 rating) and Dreamsdocometrue will face MCL company on dirt for the first time as he makes his second start off the layoff.  #1 River Date also drops for the first time, and he will race as a new gelding.  He's run well vs. some tough competition, and is the horse to beat.  
Selections:  5-1-2-6
Race 4:  #5 Lady Gracenote hasn't won a race since leaving the Jason Servis barn early this year, but she has run well more than once in that time, and she should have some pace to close into today as she turns back out of turf route try.  #3 Irish Whisper is talented, and this drop is not a huge negative for a 5yo out of NY-bred conditions, but she has had very favorable circumstances in each of her last three wins (note Race Rating Box shaded red, indicating speed-favoring tracks on January 26 and April 11, 2014; and the rail was also very live toward the end of the card on November 19).  Has speed to her inside in the form of #2 Bileaps and Bounds.  
Selections:  5-3-7-1
Race 5:  #6 Holy Week faced much better horses in first two turf tries, and was caught wide throughout game try at this level at Saratoga.  #8 Mohican Chief had some traffic issues in his first start back from an extended layoff back in July, and he was in behind horses all through the stretch last time, though without appearing to be overloaded with run.  Class drop an obvious benefit to him.  
Selections:  6-8-3-2
Race 6:  #12 Why Not Whiskey returned from a long layoff at Saratoga, and raced on evenly from off the pace through the stretch in a race that was dominated up front (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded blue, indicating a slow pace).  Tough in this race if he can take a step forward with that one behind him.  #6 Artempus easily handled an off-the-turf field at Monmouth last time out.  Turf route try off the layoff came vs. a much tougher crew, and he projects to be on a clear early lead in this spot.  
Selections:  12-6-11-9
Race 7:  #7 Picture Day turns back after taking speed try going long vs. repeater Carrumba upstate.  Flashed enough ability in first two career starts sprinting, both of which were won wire to wire.  #5 Folk Song will be hard to beat with a repeat of her last, for which she earned a TFUS Speed Figure of 104 while cutting a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded red).  May have to deal with #1 Skipalute, who tried graded stakes company in each of her last four races, but that one is off a long layoff.
Selections:  7-5-1-2
Race 8:  #4 Simple Love stretches back out after facing tougher over a sharp 5.5 furlongs at Saratoga.  Prefer her routing, and she should be more forwardly placed in this race.  #6 Miss Well Molded has good recent form to go along with the kind of back form that makes her dangerous in a race like this.  Projects to be up close early in race shape favoring runners on or near the lead.  #2 Lemon Song is competitive with her good race, and she is first off the claim for a dangerous trainer (96 rating off the claim for Brad Cox).
Selections:  4-6-2-5
Race 9:  3yo #2 Commute took a shot in the Grade 1 Kings Bishop to no avail, but he has been at his best sprinting, and 114 TFUS Speed Figure earned two back gives him a look here.  #5 Saturday'sCharm was back in form for Jacobson upstate.  Has plenty of back class, just needs some pace.  #1 Juba is a clear-cut favorite on the ML, and he has speed, but we remain unsure just how good he actually is, and he was defeated two back, at another short price, without excuse.
Selections:  2-5-1-6
Race 10:  #10 Reimburse had trouble at the start of Saratoga debut, which left her behind a slow pace (note Pace Figure/fractions color-coded blue).  Trainer is strong with second-time starters (98 rating).  #12 Wedding Dress has tough post to overcome, but she ran well when second-best to an experienced front-running winner first time out.  #1 Laquesta kept up close all the way, but didn't have a finish first time out.  Good post and eligible to pick it up quickly.  #9 Amaze Me Grace debuts for Chad Brown (perfect 100 rating debuting in turf routes) with some pedigree behind her (85 Breeding Rating for turf routes).
Selections:  10-12-1-9

TimeformUS Analysis for September 23

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Wednesday September 23rd
Race 1:  With the TimeformUS Pace Projector giving the advantage to runners on or near the early lead in a well-matched opener, #3 Regal Minister and #4 Sol the Freud appear to be in a favorable position as they both drop in class.  They were both in pursuit of a fast pace in the same race last time (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded red), Regal Minister while in a tough four-wide trip.  #5 Americas Guest was outrun on the cutback in his first start off the claim upstate, but he raced on gamely late, and he may be sharper for this one.
Selections:  4-3-5-7
Race 2:  Distance may prove key to the 2nd, and #7 Barton Holt may hold a big advantage as he cuts back a couple of furlongs, while the rest of the field tries to stretch it out.  Game in defeat after cutting all the pace over 1 1/2 miles at Saratoga, he was a convincing winner over that trip one start prior.  #5 Memories of Peter has a grinding running style that may work well over this longer trip.  He's plenty good enough with his good race, and should be in close attendance early.  #2 Ode to the Hunt couldn't muster a strong finish after a good trip in his first start back from a layoff, but he shaped with potential early on, and is most eligible to come forward now.
Selections:  7-5-2-1
Race 3:  #3 Dannie's Deceiver earned solid 95 TFUS Speed Figure in lone start as a 2yo, and he may have run the best race of anyone after contesting a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded red) and hanging around until the very end in 3yo debut.  #1 Ideal Quality worked a clean run into that fast pace set by Dannie's Deceiver last time, while #8 Imslopokerodriguez chased it wide and faltered as the favorite.  #7 Marking debuts for top connections with a Breeding Rating of 99 for dirt sprints backing him up.
Selections:  3-8-7-1
Race 4:  Tough $50k claimer on turf has a full field and is projected to be run at a fast pace.  #10 Skill Not Luck switches to turf for second start as a 3yo after getting run out by a rejuvenated Social Inclusion (126 TFUS Speed Figure) off the layoff.  Goes for top trainer getting 100 rating first time turf, and he is a half to the stakes-winning turf horse Left a Message.  #11 Schoolofhardrocks drops in class as a new gelding.  He projects to be part of a fast pace, but his good race may simply make him better than these.  #7 Lawn Ranger was a suspicious drop in his 3yo debut after showing solid stakes form as a 2yo.  Claimed by Jacobson out of that effort, he returns at the same level.
Selections:  10-11-7-1
Race 5:  #7 Askfor Forgiveness took a game run over a speed-favoring track before settling for 2nd best on debut.  Trainer gets improved ratings with second-time starters (79, vs. a rating of just 18 with first-time starters) and with first-time lasix (81).  #3 Here Comes Rosie has flashed good speed and stayed gamely in both career starts so far.  Tough go contesting a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded red) over a track favoring closers (note Race Rating Box shaded blue) last time.
Selections:  7-3-5-12
Race 6:  Not sure the cutback to 7 furlongs helps #3 Plainview all that much, but he does project to be on the early lead once again in this race, which is expected to favor runners up close, and he does nothing but show up and run his race.  #2 Mr. Online stalked Plainview last time, and then gamely drove to a short lead late before they were both closed down at the end.  Figures up close once again, and he is now second off the trainer change to Bill Mott (98 rating second start with trainer).  #6 Dowse's Beach has parlayed a series of perfect trips into a three-race winning streak, but he has clearly found a home sprinting on the grass, and he may fall into another ideal situation here if Plainview and Mr. Online hook things up out in front.  
Selections:  3-2-6-5
Race 7:  #5 Myfourchix finished gamely to earn back-to-back TFUS Speed Figure tops (98-98) upstate while closing against speed-favoring tracks both times (note Race Rating Box shaded red for both Saratoga starts).  Overdue for a win.  #3 My Super Nova and #4 Golden Gem chased and were outclosed by Myfourchix over that speed-friendly track last time.  #7 Even Bette was impressive closing into a fast pace to win her lone start thus far.  Returns from a long layoff for her second start, but has forward to go. 
Selections:  5-3-4-7
Race 8:  #5 Jc's Shooting Star earned new career top TFUS Speed Figure while breaking her maiden in a stakes race over this distance on dirt last time, but her turf races prior were also both good efforts.  #4 Smilingsundae is also a maiden on turf, but she has earned TFUS Speed Figures of 93 and 95 vs. better fields in her last two starts, and she projects for a good trip in this race. 
Selections:  5-4-3-1/1a
Race 9:  Not sure we want any of the five who contested the finale on August 23rd in Saratoga, though they are surely contenders.  Of those, we prefer #4 Said No One Ever, but we'll try #5 Loose Money on top.  He's not very good on dirt, but his lone turf sprint try to date was ok after being taken back under a strong hold.  #7 Vischer Ferry didn't take to dirt upstate, but he holds turf form that is very competitive with this group, and he has speed.  #10 Risky Sour has had some trips, and may be worth including at a price.
Selections:  5-4-7-10

TimeformUS Analysis for September 20

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Sunday September 20th
Race 1:  #4 Future Show faces tough stretch out in distance for second career start, but she ran very well first time out for an excellent trainer, and she has some pedigree to back her up.  #5 C Note will also stretch out for this, but she has two races of experience behind her, and she has finished gamely in both starts after getting away slowly from the gate, a habit she'll have to break sooner or later.
Selections:  4-5-3-7
Race 2:  #1 Star of New York was game while trying to close down #6 Attractive Ride on a loose lead two starts back, and he was similarly compromised by a slow pace last time (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded blue).  Still took a good wide run there before flattening out late, and there are a couple of horses in this field fast enough to go with the in-form Attractive Ride this time.  #5 McKenzies Way hasn't been seen in the 112 days since he was claimed by Michelle Nevin (92 Trainer Rating off the claim), and he returns for $12.5k after being taken for $20k.  Owns some of the best TFUS Speed Figures in the field, but the warning signs are there.  #8 Sandcat had a tough trip of his own when finishing just behind Star of New York last time.  He is not quite fast enough with his typical race, but there is no denying that he ran well last time.
Selections:  1-5-8-6
Race 3:  We'll see if anyone can take down the streaking #7 Lubash in the Ashley T. Cole.  He's looking for four in a row, and is clearly as good as ever at age 8.  #8 Kharafa has proven up to the task in the past, and he has also come back in excellent form this year.  Tough trip after a less-than-stellar ride in Grade 3 stakes last time.  #1 Iron Power is a dangerous speed turning back out of longer races.
Selections:  8-7-1-4
Race 4:  Forgetting about his race two back, as he hates a wet track, #3 Oldwick tends to run his best races in NY, and he was dead game last time after failing to get out into the clear at a crucial point in the stretch.  #8 Mischieviously is a consistent closer who may find some pace developing out in front of him today.  Make first start off the claim for Mike Maker (95 rating off the claim).
Selections:  3-8-6-4
Race 5:  #4 Radiator has never panned out following an impressive stateside debut, but she has proven capable of big races when in the mood (see her maiden win in Europe).  We don't mind them trying her longer, and she made a fast pace before weakening in a good field last time.  #3 Miss Chatelaine drops back to allowance company after running in three straight tough stakes races as a 3yo.  Try in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks over this course and distance two back was not a bad effort at all, considering the trip she pulled in that spot, and she was in a lot of traffic in the stretch last time.  #1a Queen's Parade has run well over this distance several times in the past, and she is supposed to be tough in this spot.  Would like her more if her entrymate were to scratch.
Selections:  4-3-1a-2
Race 6:  #7 Dettifoss bolted last time, but his race two back, where he made a big wide run into a race that was dominated by the favorite up front, gives him a big look in here.  #6 Miroc switches from turf to dirt for second start as a 3yo after battling on the pace in his return.  Projects to be on the early lead.  #8 Mascarello flashed good speed on the turn-back last time, then gave way when challenged in the stretch.  TFUS Speed Figure of 88 earned two starts back is the top number in this field.  
Selections:  7-6-8-3
Race 7:  #2 Sir Macho showed speed and took a game try in first start off the claim at Saratoga.  New trainer does an excellent job, and he is much better second off the claim (96 rating).  #4 Relentless Ride takes class drop that is supposed to make him tough for dangerous owner/trainer combo, though his overall record is hard to look past.  #9 Transcend exits ridiculous race upstate that was taken wire to wire by a 45/1 shot after the whole field decided to grab.  Can be forward himself in this race, and gets a positive rider change. 
Selections:  2-4-9-1
Race 8:  Projected fast pace on the TimeformUS Pace Projector may set things up for #2 The Tea Cups, who came last to first into a fast one (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded red) to take the Yaddo last time, but we'll try to get #1 Old Harbor, who was second in the Yaddo, to turn the tables.  She's been most effective sprinting, but think that had more to do with her headstrong ways early in her career.  She has settled a bit better with age, and she ran very well last time.  #10 Invading Humor pressed that fast pace and folded in the Yaddo.  Was effective from a stalking position in her 5yo debut. 
Selections:  1-10-2-11
Race 9:  #1 Old Friend was rank and steadying off heels all through the first turn, winding up last in a race won wire to wire last time.  Drops in to face MCL company for the first time for trainer who does well with the MSW to MCL drop (91 rating).  #10 Talladega also drops in class for the first time after falling short of that same front-running winner last time.  Logical as the horse to beat.  #8 Mind Magic needs improvement in the face of some of these, but he may be able to find some in first for Mike Maker (95 rating off the claim).
Selections:  1-10-8-6

TimeformUS Analysis for September 19

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Saturday September 19th
Race 1:  #9 King Kranz debuted in one of the best 2yo races of the Saratoga meet, and he raced very greenly while down on the rail and completely lost his action on the backstretch.  Hoping that experience did him some good, and the outside post has to be viewed as a positive.  Plenty of interesting firsters to look at in this race, including the $2.2 million purchase #5 Mohaymen, who is a half to a Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, and the $900k purchase #6 Seymourdini, a half to the graded stakes winner Delightful Joy, who goes for a trainer having an excellent year with her 2yos.  
Selections:  9-8-6-5
Race 2:  #4 Puppy Manners earned 110 TFUS Speed Figure when gamely second best to the now 24-time winner Hazards of Love in dirt route two starts back.  Turf sprint off the layoff should serve as a nice tightener as he makes his first start off the claim for an underrated trainer.  #2 Successful Brothers doesn't like to win races, but he is competitive with his good race, and he has been effective switching from turf to dirt in the past.  
Selections:  4-2-3-1
Race 3:  #3 Brinkley was a rare Pletcher 2yo who appeared to need a race first time out.  He raced greenly while wide, and bumped in the stretch before weakening late.  Pletcher has won with 4 of his last 8 2yo maidens making their second career start in a turf sprint.  #12 Orzo got outrun and then finished up well to nail Brinkley for second in that race.  #8 Relativism gets strong Breeding Rating of 91 for turf sprints, and debuts for trainer who excels with his first-time starters.  
Selections:  3-10-8-9
Race 4:  #5 Been Here Before has always shaped with potential, and she has run some very good races while having trouble putting things together completely.  Last was best yet when closing down a slow pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded blue).  #6 Kirov had a good trip and was clearly best at the end to make it 2 for 2 on dirt in first start off the trainer change for Chad Brown at Saratoga.  Makes second start off the layoff, and she earned her career-best TFUS Speed Figure of 100 over this distance in her only other start on dirt.  #4 Sheriffa has been in career form for Linda Rice, and she has dangerous speed.  #8 Tahoe Tigress has been in over her head recently, but she is a good fit here, and she loves these one-turn routes.  Any pace that develops is to her benefit.
Selections:  5-6-8-4
Race 5:  #2 Ro Bear rated early, but wound up pulling his way up into a contested pace with a very impressive winner first time out, and he paid the price.  Still thought he ran the second best race there, and his experience is a benefit in this spot.  #4 Two Down One to Go is a firster to take seriously, as is always the case when this trainer is involved (perfect 100 rating debuting in turf routes).  #6 Ben's Miracle gets solid 85 Breeding Rating for turf routes, and his dam posted all four of her career wins in turf routes. 
Selections:  2-4-6-9
Race 6:  We'll see if #3 Second City wheels back just six days after muddy track try in too tough of a spot vs. Mexicoma.  We don't mind this turn-back for him, and he is a good fit with this crew.  #5 Mordi's Miracle came through with a good effort in a one-turn mile on the drop back on May 31st at CD, and he raced on well without threat when last seen vs. some of these at Saratoga.  Makes first start off the claim for Jacobson (10 rating off the claim) right back in at the same level.  We'll see which of the Danny Gargan/Midwest Thoroughbreds duo of #1 Classic Salsa and #1A Comandante winds up in the starting gate, as they both have Junior Alvarado named.  They both have speed and are both dangerous.  
Selections:  3-1/1a-5-2
Race 7:  Two best races of #6 Lone Trader's career have come sprinting on turf, and he had a tough trip when rated wide off of a moderate pace in the second one.  Concerned that the six furlongs may be a little sharp for him, but he's good enough with his best race, and he'll be a price.  #5 Run for Logistics had no business entering the Grade 1 Forego on dirt last time, but he has proven an effective turf sprinter this year, and looks like the horse to beat here.  #8 Speeding Comet has also raced effectively over a sprint distance in the past, and he endured a very tough trip at Saratoga two starts back.  #10 Speightstown Time looked good winning first time out at Saratoga with a TFUS Speed Figure of 104.  Holds the upside, and this is far from the scariest field he could have faced for the level.
Selections:  6-5-10-8
Race 8:  #1 Coffee Clique is the one to beat in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel as she takes a step back in class, but we will take a shot against her here.  #8 Lady Lara is the logical place to go as she returns to her best distance, but we will try the improving #5 Recepta.  She had a perfect trip to win vs. lesser last time, but she was also easily best there with a new top TFUS Speed Figure (116), and she was always cut out to be at least this good.  #9 Baffle Me seems an unlikely win prospect, but she has races that give her a chance to factor, and she'll be a big price.  #2 Marbre Rose needs some pace, but she is a reliable and effective closer for top connections.
Selections:  5-8-1-2
Race 9:  Appears to be a good spot for the Euro imports, in particular #5 Planetaire, who arrives with group credentials and will add lasix for a trainer who gets results with these horses.  #1 Jay Gatsby has a big pedigree to live up to, which has led to his going favored in all five career starts so far.  He's a winner over this trip in synthetic in France.  #3 Umgiyo accompanied stablemate Mubtaahij over from Dubai as that one took his shot at the Kentucky Derby.  Umgiyo contested a fast pace (note Pace figures/Fractions shaded red) and tired in the Turf Classic, but he can't get too much credit for that, as the horse he dueled with, Sky Captain, was still around at the end.  He has been given some time since, and he will get lasix this time off the switch to Clement.
Selections:  5-1-3-2
Race 10:  #1 Brooklyn Speights steadied out to last after a hard bump at the start of sprint debut, and then tried a game wide run through the turn before tiring in the stretch.  Trainer does well with first-time starters (82 rating), but improves them a bit second time out (89 rating), and he also does well stretching them out from sprint to route (94 rating).  #10 Yummy Bear was pinched back to last at the start, then proceeded to race greenly throughout debut.  Eligible to improve quickly for trainer (95 rating with second-time starters) having an excellent year with her 2yos.  #8 Converge is a dangerous first-time starter for Chad Brown (perfect 100 rating debuting in turf routes) with some pedigree (dam was a Grade 3 winner on turf).
Selections:  1-10-8-7