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TimeformUS Analysis for October 12

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Monday October 12th
 

Race 1: Watch the Tie (#5) has probably found a field that he can beat today, but how short of a price do you really need to take on a horse that hasn’t exactly shown a desire to win races? There appears to be a lack of true speed types in this race, which is why we’re picking HUNTER CAT (#4). This horse has a sneaky look to him. The trip he got in his debut was nothing short of comical, his rider seemingly managing to find trouble in each successive furlong. Then last time he showed speed in a race that collapsed. Now he tries dirt, which he’s bred to handle, but more importantly he gets a significant rider upgrade to Manny Franco. We’ve seen James Ryerson put horses like this over at huge prices in the past, so don’t be surprised if this one takes them a long way up front.

Selections: 4 – 5 – 1 – 6 

 

Race 2: You have to love horses like ATTRACTIVE RIDE (#7). After making just a few starts as a two-year-old, he has contested an average of 11 races per season over seven years, winning 23 times. The Jacobson dropdowns are the main threats, but Attractive Ride’s grit and determination may be too much for either of them to overcome. 

Selections: 7 – 1/1A – 5 – 6 

 

Race 3: Thirst for Glory (#5) is the horse to beat as he drops in class while making his first start in 212 days. His Gulfstream efforts would make him formidable but Kimmel does not do well with layoff types like this. We’d be careful here. Instead, we’ll take a shot with BAPU (#10), who moves into the barn of James Lawrence. This horse ran reasonably well last time, but may have found two turns at Saratoga too far for him. His Breeding Rating of 77 for turf sprints, as opposed to just 59 for turf routes, suggests that this distance may be more to his liking.

Selections: 10 – 1 – 5 – 8 

 

Race 4: The list of horses that we don’t trust in this race is quite extensive. We’re getting bad vibes from both Jacobson dropdowns, and most of the more familiar alternatives are not exactly thrilling. We want new faces, so our top pick is APPROXIMATOR (#3). It’s fair to be skeptical of his out-of-town form, but he actually faced decent fields in his last two starts and put in perhaps the best effort of his career last time when setting a fast pace in a race that fell apart late. This horse runs his best races on the front end, so if Joel Rosario is aggressive, he could prove hard to catch. We’re also interested in Mr. Amos (#7) at a big price. He, too, comes out of some tough races and was hampered by a poor start in his prior dirt effort.

Selections: 3 – 7 – 2 – 4  

 

Race 5: Horses like Somerset Sandy (#2), Lady Lucky (#6), and Ally’s Envy (#8) are all logical. Though we don’t have major knocks against them, we wanted to highlight another runner that might fall through the cracks and go off at a big price. SWAYED (#5) was entered for the turf first time out in a race that was rained off. She ran evenly, but Jose Lezcano never asked her for a serious run. She is a full-sister to turf-sprint winner Pink Freud Live, so they were probably giving her that initial race as a prep before getting more serious as she moves to the right surface today.

Selections: 5 – 6 – 2 – 8 

 

Race 6: To Be Determined (#4) has not raced on turf in over a year. Her turf-sprint win at Saratoga last summer was pretty good, but she did have everything her own way up front that day. She is supposed to be the clear speed, but her rider is not typically that aggressive out of the gate.  She deserves to be favored, but we want to take a small shot against her with BARRIER TO ENTRY (#1). Obviously, you’d wish her connections would name a different rider, but if she’s aggressively ridden from the gate she may be able to outrun To Be Determined and take these all the way up front. Her races at this distance earlier this spring (TimeformUS Speed Figures of 104 and 97) would beat this field and she’s had impossible trips in her last two starts.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 2 – 7 

 

Race 7: Our top pick is LOON RIVER (#5). She found a mile and an eighth to be too far last time and seems best suited to races at a mile or less. The trainer switch to Tom Morley has to be viewed as a positive, and if she gets any pace to run at, she should prove tough to hold off late. Behind her, we’re interested in a pair of long shots. Majestic Bloom (#12) never had a fair chance in either turf sprint at Saratoga, getting eliminated at the start two back and racing wide on the worst part of the course last time. Rockin Alli (#10) has steadily improved over the course of the summer and may appreciate this turnback in distance. 

Selections: 5 – 12 – 10 – 7 

 

Race 8: We’re not trying to beat heavy favorite CARRUMBA (#2), who looks destined for graded stakes after a facile win in the mud when stepped up against winners last time. Behind her, we'll use a couple of runners out of the same race: Tahoe Tigress (#7), who loves this track and distance, and Guayana (#1), who made one of the first moves into a race that ultimately fell apart.

Selections: 2 – 7 – 1 – 6 

 

Race 9: Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this renewal of the Pebbles. Of his trio of runners, the one that we prefer is Partisan Politics (#2).  She comes off a couple of wide trips at Saratoga and should appreciate the return to a one-turn mile at Belmont. Light in Paris (#3) is the wild card as she makes her U.S. debut. Though she hasn’t been tried against the elite runners in her division at three, she was competitive against some pretty good fillies as a juvenile. However, we want to go in a slightly different direction and are making LADY ZUZU (#8) our top pick. This filly has been involved in some fast paces (note fractions and pace figures color-coded in red) and consequently has run better than it might appear on a few occasions. Making her first start for Bill Mott last time, she showed a new dimension, rating behind horses before unleashing a run once clear in the stretch. Bill Mott’s new acquisitions often run better in their second starts for the barn, as is evidenced by his 97 Trainer Rating in that category. The Pace Projector shows her leading this field in a fast pace, but we feel it’s more likely that they employ the same tactics as last time and take her off the pace. The flat mile seems perfect for Lady Zuzu, and if she improves on that last effort, she can be a major factor at a price.

Selections: 8 – 2 – 3 – 1 

 

Race 10: Mind Magic (#5) and Talladega (#7) are certainly capable of winning this race, but both got favorable setups last time, making late runs into a pace that collapsed. Instead, we prefer a couple of horses exiting different races at Saratoga. Longisland Express (#6) showed improvement when stretched back out to a route last time, chasing a fast pace before continuing on gamely through the stretch. However, the one we’re most interested in is PRIEST N THE RABBI (#2), who was done in by unlucky outside draws and subsequent wide trips in both of his starts at Saratoga and now draws a much more favorable inside post position today. He was also pretty green in both of those starts and should be able to assert his superiority over this field once he’s figured it all out.

Selections: 2 – 6 – 7 – 5

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TimeformUS Analysis for October 11

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Sunday October 11th
 
 
Race 1: POWER CRAZED (#6) exits a race against far better competition than what he meets here, and may have been hindered by a track that was kind to speed types (note Race Rating box color-coded in red). Any of his recent dirt races would stack up very well against this field. Inca Saint (#3) and Successful Brothers (#5) often run well but rarely find the winner’s circle, so we’ll use them underneath.

Selections: 6 – 3 – 5 – 1/1A 

Race 2: Only one of these eight runners already has a start under his belt, and that’s Big Gillette (#3). His debut was fine, but we believe that there may be some well-intentioned first-time starters in this race. Todd Pletcher and Kiaran McLaughlin are always dangerous in these situations and their respective charges must be respected. However, our top pick is Monmouth Park invader SEA WIZARD (#5). John Mazza is not known as a prolific debut conditioner, so it’s curious that he has picked such an ambitious spot for this horse’s debut. They paid $190,000 for this son of Uncle Mo on the heels of a dazzling 9 4/5 workout at the OBS Sales in March, so chances are he’s pretty fast.

Selections: 5 – 6 – 2 – 3 

Race 3: Kacy Lauren (#6) is the horse to beat as she sidesteps her New York-bred allowance conditions by contesting this open claiming race. Chad Brown knows she's probably not the best New York-bred allowance horse in his barn, so this move is logical. She must be used, but the price figures to be short. We're going to try to beat her with ARCTIC OCEAN (#1), who gets back on turf after running in races that were rained off in three of her last four starts. Looking back at her two-year-old grass races, her TimeformUS Speed Figures compare very favorably to everyone else in this race, Kacy Lauren included. It's not as if she's been disgraced on dirt recently, so it's likely that she's still capable of running back to those better efforts on her preferred surface.

Selections: 1 – 6 – 5 – 2 

Race 4: The stretch-out in distance is a concern, but the pickings are pretty slim in this group of $16,000 conditioned claimers, so we'll take SOURCESANDMETHODS (#4) off the claim by Brad Cox, who gets an overall Trainer Rating of 98 as well as a 96 first time off the claim. Underneath, Humbolt Street (#2) may be worth throwing in at a price. He returns as a first-time gelding and could contend here if he can get back to his better races at this distance from last spring.

Selections: 4 – 2 – 6 – 3 

Race 5: Comandante (#4) has to be considered the most likely winner as he drops steeply in class second off the claim for Danny Gargan. However, he's hard to completely trust, which is why we've gone in a different direction. NATIVE HERO (#7) clearly isn't as fast as Comandante, but his efforts two and three back are very competitive with just about everyone else in this race. He's also dropping out of deeper New York-bred allowance fields (the Race Ratings of his last four races are higher than the preliminary rating for this race). We like the turnback in distance and think he's interesting at a price.

Selections: 7 – 4 – 1/1A - 8

Race 6: The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace here, which is why we're most interested in horses who should be coming from farther back in the pack. Runners like Compliance Officer (#5) and Sinatra (#8), who are proven at this level, are certainly logical, but we feel there are a couple of more interesting horses at better prices. Our top selection is dropdown PASS THE DICE (#12). This horse has spent the majority of his career racing on dirt, but his turf races are actually pretty decent. Yes, his current form appears to have tailed off, but he had some major excuses in his last start at Monmouth. Not only was he facing a tougher group, but he went very wide around both turns and tried to make a far turn move into the fastest part of the race. Just outside of him, Utopian (#13) is another horse at a price that would benefit from a hot pace if he's able to draw in off the also-eligible list. 

Selections: 12 – 13 – 5 – 8 

Race 7: If Captain Tim (#9) repeats his last effort, he is going to be very tough to beat. However, there are some new faces in here that merit consideration. Street Jersey (#1) is interesting as he stretches out in distance for the first time. He hinted at possessing quality at age two, finishing third in a couple of strong maiden races, and he may play out as the controlling speed here (Pace Projector shows him in front). However, the one we’re most interested in is second-time starter BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#8). This Leo O’Brien trainee didn’t take any money in his debut, going off at 78/1, but actually put in a strong late run in a race that did not set up well for deep closers. He is projected to show more speed on the stretchout while getting Lasix for the first time. Any improvement on that debut puts him in the mix and the price should be generous once again.

Selections: 8 – 9 – 1 – 2 

Race 8: Christophe Clement gets excellent Trainer Ratings in almost every category that applies to ROMEO LIMA (#8), who makes his stateside debut here. It seems that he was somewhat of a disappointment in France, but he nevertheless ran well, especially on turf as a 2-year-old. We will not try to beat him. The pace needs to be discussed since it is predicted to favor horses on or near the lead. That’s one reason why we made long shot The Catmancan (#1) our second choice. He is projected to be up close early and Jose Lezcano should be looking to send him from the rail.

Selections: 8 – 1 – 2 – 9 

Race 9: Once again, the Pace Projector is forecasting that race dynamics will have an impact on the outcome. This time, a fast pace would appear to be on tap, which is one reason why we arrived at our selection of THIS HARD LAND (#5). This seven-year-old is a hard-trier that seemingly always goes off at double-digit odds; an easy horse to root for. It’s nice to see him claimed back by his longtime owners and get reunited with regular rider Angel Arroyo. He showed that he still had it in him last May, running one of his best races to beat an in-form Sea Raven. His one race since then may turn some away, but he was up against a slow pace (color-coded in blue) on a track that was favoring speed (note Racing Rating box colored red). If some pace develops, look for him to be charging hard down the center of the track late.

Selections: 5 – 7 – 2 – 1/1A

Race 10: Stormin Stephen (#3) is the horse to beat, but he’s had his chances and has failed to get it done, so it’s fair to start questioning his will to win races. Instead, we’ll go for the horse that finished just behind him last time, WHATAWONDERFLWORLD (#11). Mark Casse does exceptional work with his second-time starters. We give him a 100 Trainer Rating with those types as opposed to a mediocre 60 rating with debut runners. We’ll also throw in Slapstick (#8), whose debut was fine and who should improve for trainer Tom Morley, as well as first-time starter Big Dance (#10), who gets plenty of turf pedigree from his dam.

Selections: 11 – 8 – 3 – 10

 

 

 

TimeformUS Analysis for October 10

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Saturday October 10th
 
 

Race 1MACK MILLER (#1) drops out of much tougher spots. Each of his last five races were assigned triple-digit Race Ratings, whereas the preliminary rating for today’s affair is just 93. We actually prefer him turning back to a sprint distance and feel he’s a very likely winner at a short price. Speed types Alysaro (#8) and Mister Popsicle (#6) figure to be up front in a race that is projected to favor horses racing on or near the lead. Mr. Amos (#7) may also be worth throwing into trifectas since he drops out of a few decent efforts in some tougher spots.

Selections: 1 – 8 – 7 – 6 

 

Race 2: If HIT IT ONCE MORE (#7) repeats his last race, he’s likely to break out of the maiden ranks today. The track may have been tilted towards speed types last time (note the Racing Rating box colored red) but Hit It Once More still ran well against a couple of talented New York-breds. Furthermore, the others who already have starts under their belts haven’t exactly distinguished themselves. That’s why we’ll go to the debuting Daves Gone Bananas (#8) as our second choice. His trainer, Rick Violette, gets a 100 Trainer Rating with 2-year-o­ld first-time starters.

Selections: 7 – 8 – 3 – 5

 

Race 3: The pace is projected to favor lone speed, projected to be Thundergram (#4), so he merits consideration on that fact alone. However, we have questions about the layoff and the quality of the fields he was facing at Churchill Downs. He’s a contender, but we want to go in another direction for our top selection. The likely pace scenario does GRIDLEY HERE (#1) no favors, but we feel that he is simply the classiest runner in this race. He’s run some of his best races at Belmont Park and, if Eric Cancel can keep him in contact with the field early, he should prove to be too much for these. Tizquick (#5) also interests us at a price as he makes his first start as a new gelding after being compromised by a slow pace last time (note fractions and pace figures color-coded in blue).

Selections: 1 – 5 – 4 – 3 

 

Race 4: A number of these have recently run in races at this level, but we feel that Dynamic Decision and Chunnel are exiting the strongest race. Though both worked out good trips, CHUNNEL (#5) may have run the slightly better race since he took his shot and attacked the eventual winner at the top of the stretch, whereas Dynamic Decision (#3) just chugged along without ever really threatening. Chunnel also figures to be the better bet today. Dynamic Decision's good turf form is on display for all to see, but Chunnel's turf races are buried between poor efforts on dirt. Both should be up close to a relatively moderate pace and they're the top two picks. Transcend (#1) is a consistent check-getter, but he rarely finds the winner's circle. Verger (#7) might look appealing at first glance, but he received a dream setup last time when the seas parted for him at the top of the stretch, and the subsequent drop in claiming price is not encouraging.

Selections: 5 – 3 – 1 – 7 

 

Race 5: When dealing with so many lightly raced horses, there's a fair amount of guesswork to be done. Our top selection is STORM PROPHET (#7), who raced three to four-wide around the turn in his debut, which is far from an ideal trip in a turf sprint at Saratoga. His trainer, Mike Hushion, gets a 100 Trainer Rating with second-time starters, as opposed to his modest 59 rating with debut runners, and also does very well with horses stretching out in distance. This one should show up with a much-improved performance today. First-time starter Summer Candy (#5) is also worth using. Christophe Clement knows how to prepare a first-time starter and this colt is a half-bother to talented turf runners like Adirondack Summer, Summer Solo, and Summer Breezing. If you’re looking for a price to throw in underneath, Borrowed Dreams (#10) should have gotten something out of her debut and may be set for a  step forward this time for low-profile connections.

Selections: 7 – 5 – 10 – 11 

 

Race 6: The New York-bred first-time starters lining up here are going to have to have some ability in order to beat HOLDTHERIGHTCARDS (#4), whose debut was a solid effort. After breaking slowly, Holdtherightcards steadily advanced into a contending position and was moving well late to just miss third in one of the strongest New York-bred maiden races run at the Spa. Of the first-time starters, we prefer Flexibility (#2) and Foggy Mountain Cat (#7), who go out for the strong debut barns of Chad Brown and Rick Violette, respectively. Brett the Jet (#6) still may have some upside after running in spots in his first couple of starts and is worth including underneath at a bit of a price.

Selections: 4 – 2 – 7 – 6 

Race 7: Ocala Jim (#7) did have trouble in late stretch of his last race, but it’s hard for us to tell how much run he actually had. Today, the pace does not figure to do him any favors, so we’re taking a shot against him. Our top pick is MAKE A DECISION (#5). Jose Ortiz gave him an excellent ride last time, dropping back to last in an effort to save ground from a disadvantageous outside post position. Today, he should be more forwardly placed, and Mike Maker does very well off the claim (94 Trainer Rating). The likely lone speed, Foxhall Drive (#6), cannot be ignored here. This horse has improved drastically over the last few months and the Pace Projector has him well out in front of the field early.

Selections: 5 – 6 – 7 – 8 

 

Race 8: Reload (#8) is the horse to beat, but he has some questions to answer. While he was facing better horses in his last two starts, he was disappointing at very short prices each time. He’s had issues with layoffs recently, and if he’s starting to head in the wrong direction, the race opens up. We’re going out on a limb here and making long shot BOMBAGUIA (#4) our top pick. Watching this horse’s return, it’s clear that Joel Rosario was careful not to overuse him in his first start off the layoff. That race featured a slow pace (color-coded in blue) and was dominated on the front end. Previously, Bombaguia had shown quality against graded stakes company, and if he can shake off the rust second time back at age 7, he rates a chance. John Kimmel (overall Trainer Rating of 63) does well second time off the layoff (83 Trainer Rating). 

Selections: 4 – 6 – 8 – 1 

 

Race 9MR SPEAKER (#9) is our pick to win the Knickerbocker. He showed promise last year and as a four-year-old seems to have benefited from his trainer’s patient approach. A poorly judged ride cost him in the Sky Classic up at Woodbine, but he returned to register a clear-cut victory in the Commonwealth Cup, beating today’s rival Legendary. While this race represents a step up in class, Shug McGaughey is not the type to take a shot in a race like this unless he thinks his horse is doing well, and his record speaks to that. War Dancer (#7) is the horse that they all have to beat as he drops out of some tougher races going longer. We like him getting back to this shorter distance. Longer prices V. E. Day (#5) and defending champion Legendary (#8) are worth using underneath in exactas and trifectas.

Selections: 9 – 7 – 5 – 8 

 

Race 10ON LEAVE (#4) showed promise in her debut and is bred to have a bright future racing on turf. We’re not too worried about the relatively modest TimeformUS Speed Figure she received last time, since fourth-place finisher Time and Motion returned out of that race to run 24 points higher next time when finishing third in the Miss Grillo. Morning line favorite and logical contender Ava’s Kitten (#11) must be included. At a bigger price, Knuckle Knock (#2) is interesting, since her dam was far better on turf (best Speed Figure of 110) than she was on dirt (best Speed Figure of 73). She hasn’t had the easiest trips in her first two starts and might be getting on the right surface here.

Selections: 4 – 11 – 2 – 10

 
 
 
 

TimeformUS Analysis for October 9

TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Friday October 9th
 
 

Race 1:  DENIM BLUE (#7) drops into maiden claiming company for the first time after making wide runs from off the pace in a couple of turf sprints at Saratoga. Unless one of the first-time starters is particularly headstrong, Denim Blue should be sitting closer to a moderate pace today, and his strong finishing ability should carry him to victory. Of those that have run, Axtell (#3) is the logical other horse to use. His turf debut was fine, but our Race Ratings suggest Denim Blue contested the tougher maiden special weight races. Hotinthehamptons (#2) switches surfaces after barely lifting a hoof in his Saratoga debut. He’s the wild card.

Selections: 7 – 3 – 2 – 5 

 

Race 2HUSH NOW (#3) took a step forward when switched to turf this year, but her most recent outing on dirt suggests that she may just have returned a better filly at three. After getting away from the gate poorly, she became very rank while trying to rush up into traffic. Despite fighting Jose Lezcano for the early portion of the race, she remarkably was still able to put in a strong late run. This time, if she’s able to get away from the gate cleanly, she should have an excellent chance to break her maiden. 

Selections: 3 – 1 – 4 – 6

 

Race 3: Modus Operandi and Tizallheart exit the toughest races and, judging by the preliminary Race Rating for this affair, are both dropping in class. Neither one has shown much of an affinity for winning races, but we’ll take 1-for-11 MODUS OPERANDI (#3) over 1-for-25 Tizallheart (#5). Angel Choir’s (#4) last race makes her somewhat competitive as well, but she will have to deal with stretching-out sprinter Petticoat Day while negotiating an extra half-furlong.

Selections: 3 – 5 – 4 – 6 

 

Race 4: Our selection in this race is a great example of the potential benefits of using TimeformUS’s pace-adjusted Speed Figures. Whereas speed figures that are strictly final time-based wouldn’t point out SPARTAN EMPEROR (#8)  as a contender in this race, our Speed Figures tell a different story. Our color-coded Pace Figures indicate that he’s been a part of fast paces (marked in red) in both of his races. Due to the fast pace he set last time, his most recent TimeformUS Speed Figure of 83 is actually tied for the highest number ever earned by any horse in this race. There’s less other speed signed on today, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts that Spartan Emperor will be clearly in front early. A repeat of his last effort makes him a top contender, and he should offer value at or around his 6/1 morning line.

Selections: 8 – 2 – 3 – 5 

 

Race 5: The drop in for a $12,500 tag off the claim for over 3 times that much is a  concern, but if anyone can pull off that kind of move it’s David Jacobson. BASS RIVER ROAD (#1A) didn’t show up last time, but his prior form lays over this field. We won’t try to beat him. Gentrify (#4) also drops sharply in class after a subpar performance last time. One of these two will likely win, with Mach Seven (#3) looking to pick up the pieces if one or both fall apart late.

Selections: 1A – 4 – 3 – 6 

 

Race 6SCORPION ALY (#3) faced a much better field last time and gets a needed drop in class as she makes her NYRA debut for trainer Patricia Farro.  If she’s able to stay in close attendance to what is predicted to be a pace favoring horses on or near the lead, she should be very tough to beat. Bargaining Table (#5) is the other logical horse to use, as she gets a positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr. while making her second start for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, who gets a superb 100 Trainer Rating with horses running second off the claim.

Selections: 3 – 5 – 9 – 6

 

Race 7: Disco Partner (#1A) has turned into a very capable turf sprinter lately, but he’s been most effective as a one-run closer, and a slow pace could work against him here. (The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead.) At a short price, we believe it’s worth taking a shot against him. Our top pick is GLOWING EMBER (#11), who moves back into New York-bred company after trying open N1X allowance foes in his last few starts. His previous rider had been intent on rating him despite the fact that he’s run his best races on the front end. Eric Cancel gets aboard today and should be looking to send Glowing Ember to the lead from his outside post. Speed is his weapon, and if he’s allowed to use it, Glowing Ember may prove impossible to catch.

Selections: 11 – 1A – 6 – 8 

 

Race 8OCEAN KNIGHT (#7) previously had no trouble stretching out to a route when he overcame a wide trip to beat eventual Preakness third-place finisher Divining Rod in the Sam F. Davis earlier this year. Something obviously went wrong in the Tampa Bay Derby, but his return was encouraging. The price will be short, but we could not come up with a suitable alternative to the favorite. Noble Moon (#6) appears to be a contender once again, but it’s been a long time since he’s visited the winner’s circle.

Selections: 7 – 6 – 8 – 4 

 

Race 9: With so many fillies stretching out from sprints, it’s no surprise that the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace for this race. Taken by Surprise (#2) appears to be the horse to beat. In her debut, she finished right alongside Miss Kew and Lady Lucky, who returned to defeat a handful of the runners in this field in that September 18th maiden race at Belmont. The horse that we’re most interested in out of that particular race is LIGHT REIGN (#10). She was steadied at the start and was slow into stride thereafter, giving away many lengths in just the first eighth of a mile. She gradually advanced to regain contact with the pack by the time they reached the top of the stretch, but she was very green through the lane, wanting to duck down towards the rail. All indications are that this was strictly a learning experience for a filly who was unprepared for her first start. She should be more professional this time, and her lack of early speed may suit this race well. At anything close to her 30/1 morning line odds, she would be an excellent value play.

Selections: 10 – 2 – 6 – 9