Race 1: #9 King Kranz debuted in one of the best 2yo races of the Saratoga meet, and he raced very greenly while down on the rail and completely lost his action on the backstretch. Hoping that experience did him some good, and the outside post has to be viewed as a positive. Plenty of interesting firsters to look at in this race, including the $2.2 million purchase #5 Mohaymen, who is a half to a Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, and the $900k purchase #6 Seymourdini, a half to the graded stakes winner Delightful Joy, who goes for a trainer having an excellent year with her 2yos.
Race 2: #4 Puppy Manners earned 110 TFUS Speed Figure when gamely second best to the now 24-time winner Hazards of Love in dirt route two starts back. Turf sprint off the layoff should serve as a nice tightener as he makes his first start off the claim for an underrated trainer. #2 Successful Brothers doesn't like to win races, but he is competitive with his good race, and he has been effective switching from turf to dirt in the past.
Race 3: #3 Brinkley was a rare Pletcher 2yo who appeared to need a race first time out. He raced greenly while wide, and bumped in the stretch before weakening late. Pletcher has won with 4 of his last 8 2yo maidens making their second career start in a turf sprint. #12 Orzo got outrun and then finished up well to nail Brinkley for second in that race. #8 Relativism gets strong Breeding Rating of 91 for turf sprints, and debuts for trainer who excels with his first-time starters.
Race 4: #5 Been Here Before has always shaped with potential, and she has run some very good races while having trouble putting things together completely. Last was best yet when closing down a slow pace (note Pace Figures/fractions shaded blue). #6 Kirov had a good trip and was clearly best at the end to make it 2 for 2 on dirt in first start off the trainer change for Chad Brown at Saratoga. Makes second start off the layoff, and she earned her career-best TFUS Speed Figure of 100 over this distance in her only other start on dirt. #4 Sheriffa has been in career form for Linda Rice, and she has dangerous speed. #8 Tahoe Tigress has been in over her head recently, but she is a good fit here, and she loves these one-turn routes. Any pace that develops is to her benefit.
Race 5: #2 Ro Bear rated early, but wound up pulling his way up into a contested pace with a very impressive winner first time out, and he paid the price. Still thought he ran the second best race there, and his experience is a benefit in this spot. #4 Two Down One to Go is a firster to take seriously, as is always the case when this trainer is involved (perfect 100 rating debuting in turf routes). #6 Ben's Miracle gets solid 85 Breeding Rating for turf routes, and his dam posted all four of her career wins in turf routes.
Race 6: We'll see if #3 Second City wheels back just six days after muddy track try in too tough of a spot vs. Mexicoma. We don't mind this turn-back for him, and he is a good fit with this crew. #5 Mordi's Miracle came through with a good effort in a one-turn mile on the drop back on May 31st at CD, and he raced on well without threat when last seen vs. some of these at Saratoga. Makes first start off the claim for Jacobson (10 rating off the claim) right back in at the same level. We'll see which of the Danny Gargan/Midwest Thoroughbreds duo of #1 Classic Salsa and #1A Comandante winds up in the starting gate, as they both have Junior Alvarado named. They both have speed and are both dangerous.
Race 7: Two best races of #6 Lone Trader's career have come sprinting on turf, and he had a tough trip when rated wide off of a moderate pace in the second one. Concerned that the six furlongs may be a little sharp for him, but he's good enough with his best race, and he'll be a price. #5 Run for Logistics had no business entering the Grade 1 Forego on dirt last time, but he has proven an effective turf sprinter this year, and looks like the horse to beat here. #8 Speeding Comet has also raced effectively over a sprint distance in the past, and he endured a very tough trip at Saratoga two starts back. #10 Speightstown Time looked good winning first time out at Saratoga with a TFUS Speed Figure of 104. Holds the upside, and this is far from the scariest field he could have faced for the level.
Race 8: #1 Coffee Clique is the one to beat in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel as she takes a step back in class, but we will take a shot against her here. #8 Lady Lara is the logical place to go as she returns to her best distance, but we will try the improving #5 Recepta. She had a perfect trip to win vs. lesser last time, but she was also easily best there with a new top TFUS Speed Figure (116), and she was always cut out to be at least this good. #9 Baffle Me seems an unlikely win prospect, but she has races that give her a chance to factor, and she'll be a big price. #2 Marbre Rose needs some pace, but she is a reliable and effective closer for top connections.
Race 9: Appears to be a good spot for the Euro imports, in particular #5 Planetaire, who arrives with group credentials and will add lasix for a trainer who gets results with these horses. #1 Jay Gatsby has a big pedigree to live up to, which has led to his going favored in all five career starts so far. He's a winner over this trip in synthetic in France. #3 Umgiyo accompanied stablemate Mubtaahij over from Dubai as that one took his shot at the Kentucky Derby. Umgiyo contested a fast pace (note Pace figures/Fractions shaded red) and tired in the Turf Classic, but he can't get too much credit for that, as the horse he dueled with, Sky Captain, was still around at the end. He has been given some time since, and he will get lasix this time off the switch to Clement.
Race 10: #1 Brooklyn Speights steadied out to last after a hard bump at the start of sprint debut, and then tried a game wide run through the turn before tiring in the stretch. Trainer does well with first-time starters (82 rating), but improves them a bit second time out (89 rating), and he also does well stretching them out from sprint to route (94 rating). #10 Yummy Bear was pinched back to last at the start, then proceeded to race greenly throughout debut. Eligible to improve quickly for trainer (95 rating with second-time starters) having an excellent year with her 2yos. #8 Converge is a dangerous first-time starter for Chad Brown (perfect 100 rating debuting in turf routes) with some pedigree (dam was a Grade 3 winner on turf).