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TimeformUS Race Analysis



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TimeformUS Analysis for September 18

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Friday September 18th
Race 1:  Well-matched field of 5 in the opener, but #5 Lady Luciano has the early advantage according to the TimeformUS Pace Projector.  TFUS Speed Figure of 102 earned for blowout win in the mud back on March 7th is the top number in this field, and she faced much tougher horses in her last dirt start.  #1 Jules N Rome steps back up looking for four in a row on dirt after prevailing in sloppy two-turn route at Saratoga last time.  Has the speed to keep Lady Luciano in range early.  #2 In Spite of Mama gave way as the chalk without apparent excuse off the short layoff at Saratoga.  Is better than that, and this shorter distance is a better fit.  #3 Familyofroses tried to circle into contention from last going longer last time.  Hasn't won a race since October of 2013, and she may be up against it from a dynamics standpoint, but she consistently runs her race.
Selections:  5-1-2-3
Race 2:  #2 Heat Flash took a game run from the back in a race won in wire-to-wire fashion last out at Saratoga.  Effort two back indicates that he has enough speed to keep closer in this spot, which is projected to favor runners on or near the lead, as he makes his first start off the claim for dangerous connections.  #6 Compliance Officer has clearly lost a step or two as a now 9yo, but he was game in defeat last time and is likely to be competitive at this level for the time being.  #7 Upgrade drops below the level of his recent claim by an excellent trainer.  He's another old-timer who can still run, but he has always been better off going a bit shorter than this.  #4 Sinatra may be the horse to beat, but we have never been enamored with him, and prefer Heat Flash out of that last race.
Selections:  2-6-7-4
Race 3:  #2 Indian Trail is the horse to beat while taking a cutback that figures to work well for him.  Uncle Mo's little brother has improved from start to start with ascending TFUS Speed Figures on display (92-95-101), but he gets harder to take at a short price with each passing race.  #8 Godrevy has also improved right along, and also figures to appreciate this cutback to a mile.  Thought he ran well in each of his two 9-furlong races upstate.  #7 Chomsky was cut out to be a good horse (he earned TFUS Speed Figures of 101 and 108 as a 2yo) before missing a ton of time following tough trip on turf at the end of 2013.  Thought he ran well in pair of sprints at Saratoga, and may be set for better in third start back.
Selections:  7-8-2-5
Race 4:  #1 Frontier Scout took part in a multi-horse battle for the lead and tired late in his first start back form a long layoff, and first for Joe Sharp two starts back.  Didn't use that speed last time in a race dominated up front.  #11 Southpaw has the advantage of being lightly raced in this big field of NY-bred maiden claimers.  Debut wasn't terrible, and he cuts back here while switching from turf to dirt for a top trainer.  #13 Apache Warrior is the one to beat as he drops with the fastest races behind him (TFUS Speed Figures of 94-89 for last two races are the top 2 figures in the field).  Good post, but he will have other speed to contend with early according to Pace Projector, and he tends to plod through the stretch.
Selections:  1-11-13-4
Race 5:  #5 Undertherain cut a fast early pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded red) and carried on to clear-cut win in NY debut off the trainer change to Michelle Nevin.  Cuts back and drops back down after tiring vs. better last time.  #6 Moon Medal drops for the first time.  Her races are nothing special, but she has faced much better horses on turf.  #1a Egyptian Magic was conservatively ridden and rallied too late in shorter sprint upstate last time.  Has improved since switched to turf by Linda Rice this summer.
Selections:  5-6-1a-7
Race 6:  #7 Stormin Stephen got the best of a contested pace in turf debut, but drifted through the stretch while acting green and couldn't hold on late.  Speed and experience figure to serve him well in this field, which is composed mostly of first-time starters.  Firster #5 Sherry's Miracle has turf on both sides of his pedigree (92 Breeding Rating for turf sprints), as does #2 Domus (87 Breeding Rating), debuting for Tom Bush, who has already sent out a 2yo to win first time out sprinting on turf at this meet. 
Selections:  7-5-2-6
Race 7:  #9 Tapitsphere exits career-best performance when cutting a legit pace going longer at Saratoga.  Cuts back a bit and projects for good trip tracking the stretch-out speed of #5 Roman Revival.  #7 Union River earned new top TFUS Speed Figure of 96 when closing down sprinters off the trainer change to Tony Dutrow.  Added distance not a concern, and Dutrow gets perfect 100 rating with last-out maiden winners.  #3 Hillbilly Style was slow to get going, and was then forced to try a wide run through the turn in his first start off the claim.  Will be running late.
Selections:  9-7-3-10
Race 8:  #7 Barrel of Love finished gamely for 2nd behind Ready for Rye two starts back with a TFUS Speed Figure of 118, and he was totally buried in the stretch of his last start without even coming clear to run.  He's proven effective going longer, but we have always liked him sprinting on turf.  #2 Summer Breezing wasn't able to get much running in last year, but he's come back running as a 6yo, and he has speed from the inside.  #4 Tripski and #10 Sandy'z Slew finished noses apart when just missing at Saratoga last time.  They are both contenders here, but they may be better off with the shorter sprints available to them upstate. 
Selections:  7-2-4-10
Race 9:  #3 Sheyn Vi Di Levone was green after a slow start on debut, but she put in a long wide run to contention there before getting a bit tired late.  Eligible to improve quickly for that experience.  #4 Miss Kew came away only second best to a perfectly ridden winner on the stretch-out last time.  Has run well enough in both career starts to be considered the horse to beat here.  #8 Lady Lucky was always inside and had to work her way clear of horses before finishing gamely while just shy of Miss Kew last time.   Forward to go.  #6 Head Shrinker took some money, but didn't run after being bothered at the start of sprint debut.  May show more on the stretch-out.  
Selections:  3-4-8-6

TimeformUS Analysis for September 17

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Thursday September 17th
Race 1:  #7 Northern Screamer is the shortest of prices on the ML as she plummets in class for a good trainer (Kenneally is rated 98 with horses dropping MSW to MCL).  Is the speed from the outside, and owns the fastest figures.  #6 Your Turn will try to close for a piece late while switching from turf to dirt.  Earned career best TFUS Speed Figure of 82 the last time she made this surface switch.  
Selections:  7-6-4-5
Race 2:  #7 Defoe Street has been consistently fast enough to go with these horses, and she has handled one-turn routes in the past.  Shut off and outrun after breaking slowly in NY debut.  #6 Star of the Forest put up pair of new top TFUS Speed Figures once switched to Jacobson barn back in June.  Projects for good trip up close, and this barn connected with a couple of big prices on Wednesday with horses suddenly finding their best form.  
Selections:  7-6-2-1
Race 3:  #3 Luv Dakota Skye drops back down after even finish from last vs. allowance company upstate.  Has nice versatility and is a better fit at this level.  #7 Malibu Charlie figures dangerous as the main speed as he also drops in class after being listed as a vet scratch on August 27th.  Has raced cheaply before, and he hung badly when finishing ahead of Luv Dakota Skye in that race back on March 17th.  #2 Ogermeister is tough to take on top at this point, but he may be better on turf, and he's off the claim for a hot trainer.
Selections:  3-7-2-5
Race 4:  #4 Hush Now was well-backed in pair of dirt starts to begin her career as a 2yo while landing in some tough spots.  Interesting returning to dirt having shown improved form on turf this year.  Of the three exiting the August 27th race behind blowout winner Women Win, #9 Kellyesque was kept closest to that rival, and was spent at the end while closed down by #1 Royalton and #6 Stone Supplier late.  Eligible for better, and she may play out as the main speed here.  #10 Lady in Shades turns back to sprint after putting up new career top figure of 89 going long upstate.  
Selections:  4-9-10-1
Race 5:  #7 Cease drops off the re-claim by Jacobson.  Hasn't won in a while, but continues to run faster races than his competition in this spot.  #9 Golden Itiz drops and cuts back a bit after failing to get involved in his first start off the claim for Gary Gullo.  #5 Grandpa Len is capable of a race that puts him close to Cease at this point, and he is first off the claim for Bruce Levine (88 rating first off the claim).
Selections:  7-9-5-4
Race 6:  With the TimeformUS Pace Projector indicating that a fast pace is on tap for this $50k claimer for maidens over one mile on the turf, we will hope that #11 Kitten's Angel can work the right trip and take advantage late.  She had the tougher wide trip two back when the inside-running #8 Mama's Red Hat outfinished her for 2nd, and she was wide again last time when just outfinished by the pair of #1 Break Away and Pointe Class.  #2 Blue Earth drops in to face MCL company after racing on without threat in MSW debut.  Good post for Pletcher, who gets perfect 100 rating with second-time starters.
Selections:  11-2-1-9
Race 7:  Alternatives hard to come by in 7th race, for claimers on grass, though it seems reasonable to want to be against ML favorite #3 Welcome Speech following uninspiring effort on the drop last time.  Effort two back likely puts her in the winner's circle.  #6 Milkyyourway is a maiden on turf, but she's dropping second off the layoff, and has races that put her there.  #11 Weekend Score needs to improve a bit but she is heading the right way, and she's the best price of the ones we are considering.  Win vs. maidens over this course was a legit effort.
Selections:  11-3-6-7
Race 8:  Tough call with #1 Sioux, who drops down in second start back from a long layoff after failing to impact a much tougher crew last time.  He's fast when he's right, and ran a couple of races at the end of last year that would overwhelm this group.  #5 Fleeting is a better fit over these one-turn routes, and he can make a late run if Sioux gets hooked, or just isn't the same horse any longer.  #7 Beyond Empire is ok, and he has returned from Dubai in respectable form.
Selections:  1-5-7-6
Race 9:  #3 Jessica's Ride sped clear on a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded red) and was only tagged late by a repeat winner in much improved performance in her first start back from a layoff.  #11 Splendid Gold was down inside trying to rally as #8 Wantagh Queen closed out in the clear at this level upstate.  They look like the two to beat entering right back.  #7 Super City was wide from an outside past when a non-factor last time.  Positive rider change for this, and she's capable of a race that will put her there.
Selections:  3-11-8-7

TimeformUS Analysis for September 16

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Wednesday September 16th
Race 1:  #2 Not So Quiet Man adds lasix and takes the MSW to MCL drop after landing in pair of tough races in New Jersey.  Had speed last time, and new trainer gets 98 rating with this class drop.  #6 Bluegrass Prevails owns the top two TFUS Speed Figures in the field at this point.  Drops another notch after getting stuck on a tough wide chase behind a sharp frontrunning winner last time.  #3 Threeskills was away last and then outrun by that same sharp winner last time.
Selections:  2-6-3-7
Race 2:  #2 Silver Ride earned field-best TFUS Speed Figure of 108 in game effort three starts back vs. a much tougher field (Race Rating 113, vs. today's preliminary rating of 94), and he has since been up against it trying to close into slow paces (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded blue) over tracks that were favoring speed (note Race Rating Box shaded red).  Trainer pulls perfect 100 rating dropping from ALW to CLM.  #5 Stay Tuned is the main danger, but he appears to be heading the wrong way following pair of defeats upstate as an odds-on favorite.
Selections:  2-5-7-1
Race 3:  #4 Indian Brut came wide into a slow pace (note Pace figures/fractions color-coded blue) and engaged in game stretch duel before settling for 3rd in first route attempt at Saratoga.  Slight cut-back for this may work better for him.  #1 Juan and Bina was trying to close over a pair of speed-favoring tracks upstate (note Race Rating Box shaded red for each of his last two starts), but still managed to put up a new top TFUS Speed Figure of 109 last time.  Added distance not a negative.  #2 Ice Cutter didn't make a start at Saratoga after posting his maiden win over this track and trip in early July, but he trained right along up there for trainer pulling 98 rating with last-out maiden winners.
Selections:  4-1-2-6
Race 4:  #7 Heaven's Touch has three 100+ TFUS Speed Figures from her six career starts thus far, and she is first off the claim for David Jacobson (100 rating off the claim) after chasing a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded red) last time.  #8 Greek Life closed down pace-setting Henry's Gal at this level to post third win in last four starts upstate.  Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice from a good outside post.  #5 Trail Walker is not always reliable, but her best race is pretty good, and she was a game 3rd after taking an early run when last in NY at this level.
Selections:  7-8-5-3
Race 5:  #7 Lord of Love doesn't win often, but he's quite a bit better than his overall record makes him look, and repeat of 101 TFUS Speed Figure earned in most recent turf start makes him a contender in this race, at a price.  #4 Three for Me has been in form for an excellent trainer since switching back to turf.  He can go longer, but has proven more effective sprinting, and he turns back here.  #5 Latigo Trail is a dangerous speed in a race favoring his running style, according to the TimeformUS Pace Projector.
Selections:  7-4-5-6
Race 6:  #1 More Stormyweather looks like the right new face in this race for trainer getting perfect 100 rating first with trainer.  TFUS Speed Figures earned in two turf starts in California suggest that she has found the right field, and she will have some pace to close into, according to Pace Projector.  #9 Hillaryinthehouse drops in to face claiming company for the first time after getting wired closing weekend at Saratoga.  Owns series of TFUS Speed Figures that suggest she is the horse to beat.  #3 Awesome Quick was game while taking part in a contested pace that fell apart late on dirt last time.  Prior race on turf resulted in new top figure of 84.  
Selections:  1-9-3-8
Race 7:  #1 Aesthetique impressed in convincing win at Monmouth just 12 days ago, and enters here with the top last-out TFUS Speed Figure in tow (98).  Needs to run her best race while facing allowance company again, but she's talented enough, likes this distance, and has speed at her disposal. #3 Amazing Anne is the one to beat as she steps back from pair of stallion series races just three days apart (one of them vs. colts) at Saratoga.  We're getting weary of following #6 Skinner Box, but she is competitive here with her best race, and the cut-back may really work for her.  
Selections:  1-3-6-2
Race 8:  #7 Ocala Jim drops down after facing much tougher horses in all five starts so far this year (Race Ratings 116-118-114-115-113, as opposed to today's preliminary rating of 105).  Figures tough in this spot, and any residual "give" in the ground from last weekend's rain moves him up.  #9 Iced Over has come back an improved horse as a 4yo, ringing up consecutive new TFUS Speed Figure tops of 101-102-105 on turf.  Good finish without much chance to get to frontrunning Goodtolook last time.  #10 Slew's Brew makes 4yo debut off the long layoff today.  Improved on turf at the end of last year, and has a versatile running style.
Selections:  7-9-10-11
Race 9:  #7 Not Now Joanie drops down while switching to dirt, and will have lasix for the first time, off the trainer change to Michelle Nevin (96 rating first with trainer).  Has some speed, which should serve her well in this field.  #9 Glare Ice is the one to catch, and beat, switching from turf to dirt.  Stamina has been her issue to this point, but she may simply have found the right field here.  #2 Justenuffdior was a wise guy horse off the trainer change last time, but he did come through with a new TFUS Speed Figure top of 76 while going long on grass.  Returns to level of the claim back on dirt. 
Selections:  7-9-2-14

TimeformUS Analysis for September 13

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Analysis for Racing at Belmont Park on Sunday September 13th
Race 1:  All first-time starters in this 2yo filly MSW sprint over six furlongs to start the day.  #1 Lewis Bay gets a strong Breeding Rating of 95 for dirt sprints as a half to Graded Stakes winners Misconnect and Winslow Homer.  #2 Holders Season debuts for Pletcher (100 Trainer Rating with 2yo first-time starters).  #4 Wave of Glory appears to be training well up to this for her underrated trainer, and she is a half-sister to four multiple winners from this dam.
Selections:  1-2-4-3
Race 2:  According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, #4 Lakeview Lady has the early advantage in this 7-furlong turf sprint.  Like her cutting back a bit for this, and she has TFUS Speed Figures that make her competitive.  #5 Arctic Ocean looks to finally get a turf race to go after having her two Saratoga starts rained off to the main track.  Turf form as a 2yo makes her formidable here.  #1 Jennys Creek is logical for trainer quietly having a good run of success, but she is not exactly a winning type.
Selections:  4-5-1-2
Race 3:  #3 Piccolo Flats lost for the first time in a one-turn mile when trying a wide run in the $200k Critical Eye back in May.  Arrives fresh, and with a field-best TFUS Speed Figure of 106 in tow from her comprehensive win over this track and trip two starts back.  #2 Carrumba has been improving steadily for Shug.  Cuts back a bit in a race that may not set up that well for her, according to Pace Projector.
Selections:  3-2-1-6
Race 4:  #8 Transact looked heavy and in need of a race prior to showing brief speed in dirt sprint debut, which came in a live field that included next-out Grade 1 winner Rachel's Valentina.  Switches to turf with pedigree for trainer who excels with stretch-outs (perfect 100 rating route to sprint) and second-time starters (94).  #5 Girls Secret and #6 Grey Stark exit same Saratoga debut, where they both showed something to work on while finishing 3rd and 4th, respectively.  Grey Stark will add blinkers after racing greenly following a slow start in that spot.
Selections:  8-5-6-3
Race 5:  #8 Little Miss Julia takes big class drop (Weaver gets perfect 100 Trainer Rating dropping from ALW to CLM races) for her second start back from a layoff, and she has drawn a perfect post on the outside.  #5 Riding First Class ships in for a dangerous trainer, and she switches from turf to dirt while also taking a class drop.  Parlayed a perfect trip into maiden win three starts back, a race that TimeformUS did not rate highly (71 TFUS Speed figure).
Selections:  8-5-3-4
Race 6:  #2 Magnificent Margo took a speed try off the long layoff at Saratoga, and she tired in the stretch.  Still earned a new career top TFUS Speed Figure of 92 for that effort, and we want to give her one more chance sprinting on turf for trainer off to a promising start, and who gets a rating of 95 off of this kind of spacing.  #1 Easy Feeling has faced some better horses since arriving from France, where she was kept to sprinting.  Turns back in an easier spot.  #8 Lady Kreesa has proven a more effective sprinter than router, and she is fastest on the way in with several TFUS Speed Figures that make her a clear horse to beat.
Selections:  2-1-8-9
Race 7:  #9 Mexicoma made a promising return to the races over a sloppy track here back in June, and he was hung up wide all the way around the first turn in the $100k Alydar, which was wired by Bay of Plenty last time.  Projects to have some pace in front of him here, assuming this field stays intact.  #8 Noble Moon overdue for a win after getting closed down by Street Baba last time.  Getting back around one turn with a slight cut back might help.  #6 The Truth or Else trying a tough spot off the short layoff, but he's talented and improving.  #3 Hartford returned from an extended layoff to gut out a victory sprinting at Saratoga.  Stretches out and needs to improve.  
Selections:  9-8-3-1
Race 8:  #8 Ready for Rye is the one to beat in the $100k Allied Forces for turf sprinters.  Two for two on turf, he earned a big 120 TFUS Speed Figure with an easy trip two starts back, then came home gamely to take the Quick Call at Saratoga over a couple of these.  #6 Cyclogenisis was behind Ready for Rye lat time, but he was stuck down inside and behind horses through the stretch, and he never got much room while finishing gamely.  He has a habit of staying inside in his races, and that could present a problem, but he can run. 
Selections:  6-8-1-5
Race 9:  #11 Blue Shark has tough outside post to overcome, but he may have finally found the right spot here.  #10 Ducks Dock lacks for early speed, and he may want to go longer, but he is a good fit in a field like this with his good race.  Drawing Away entry of #1 Let's Wrap It Up and #1a Valuetempo are logical contenders, and they both have enough early speed to ensure the right kind of trip, which may make all the difference in this race. 
Selections:  11-10-1/1a-3