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TimeformUS Race Analysis


2015-10-06_11-04-02 new_for_$5.99_ad 2015-10-06_10-56-45



Belmont Analysis for Thursday May 15

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  Both #7 Blue Ballerina and #6 Wild Kay are well-drawn speeds, so the key to their success (or failure) may come down to how aggressively they are ridden.  Because Blue Ballerina is the better price, we'll take her on top.  She has been in career-best form lately, a turnaround that has coincided with her starting to show speed in her races, and she is back to the right level after catching a muddy track here last week.  #1 We'll Talk could be the beneficiary if a duel develops, as she looks for four in a row.  

Selections:  7-1-6-2
Race 2:  #6 Bounty Pink buried a weak field when returning from a layoff in December, and it was another four months before she resurfaced with a respectable effort on grass, despite getting wiped out at the break.  No layoff this time, and we like her returning to dirt.  #2 Soul Opposition hasn't done much to get excited about to this point, but she's in for a tag for the first time, and did have a troubled trip in her last race.  #5 Fujiana has the top last number in the race (72), although #1 Fee and Sugar was in that race and and earned a 75 (she's run twice more since then), but Fujiana has been well-backed several times and has proven to just not be that good.
Selections:  6-2-1-5
Race 3:  Pace Projector favors runners up close to the pace, and that figures to play well for #2 Cast a Doubt, who received the wrong ride last time, rating back off the pace before being forced to take a wide run.  
He has more speed than that, and can use it from the inside here.  We'll also use #3 Bemata, who is making his third start off the claim by very sharp connections and will appreciate turning back in distance, as he is 4 for 8 sprinting on dirt, and 0 for 10 doing anything else.  
Selections:  2-3-4-6
Race 4:  Tough turf sprint to figure, as 7 of the 13 entered, including both halves of the coupled entry, have never been on grass.  #3 Ziggy the Great made a promising debut last summer, getting bet and then closing gamely to run down the favored leader well clear of the rest of the field.  Figures to benefit from the turn-back in distance here after getting wired off the layoff, and he picks up Castellano.  #11 Countknickerbocker has had his chances already, but he endured some tough trips last year and may wind up catching some pace to run into if this field stays intact.   #6 Sol the Freud is a full brother to Grade 1 winner Franny Freud, who handled all surfaces, and he held his own vs. some solid competition as a two-year-old.
Selections:  3-11-6-4-2
Race 5:  #7 Cashmere Cat ran into a sharp debut winner when returned from the layoff, and then received an odd ride while kept wide throughout off of a moderate pace last time.  Switches to Rosario for this, and his trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with runners dropping from MSW to maiden claiming company. #3 Rich 'n' Tuck earned a solid 102 TimeformUS speed figure for his debut run vs. a solid field, and he is back to dirt for the first time since the end of November, with some class relief.  
Selections:  7-3-1-5
Race 6:
Appears that first-time starter #9 Silverama has found a soft spot here if she can run.  Has enough pedigree, being out of a dam who went 4-for-8 in France, and was a listed stakes winner, and Christophe Clement is a rare trainer who excels with runners debuting going long on grass (98 Trainer Rating).  #10 Medaglia d'Argento drops down and returns to turf after getting outrun over Gulfstream's main track; will have blinkers on for the first time on grass.  #3 Hiddenite ran quite well on a solid pace when switched to turf last time, but she was 35/1 that day, and you'll be required to take a much shorter price this time around.  The other first-time starter, #1 The Giant's Lamp, also has plenty of pedigree (her dam made almost $150k on grass, and was stakes placed multiple times).  
Selections:  9-10-3-1-8
Race 7:  Pace Projector indicates a fast pace is on tap here, and that may be to the detriment of ML favorite #1 B Shanny, who is drawn on the rail.  We'll take #6 Dan's Gold, who couldn't avoid a duel when breaking from the rail here opening week, but is nicely drawn outside today, and showed in his impressive win back in December that he is comfortable tracking from the outside. #2 Chilton has put up back-to-back wins for sharp connections while pairing up a new top speed figure of 91 in the process, and he may be the main beneficiary of a contested pace here.   #7 The Rhythmisright is a quick three-year-old, and he drew well on the far outside, but he's likely to be tested by some hard-hitters in this spot and doesn't figure to offer much value.  
Selections:  6-2-1-3
Race 8:  We have been impressed with #3 Patent's turf efforts to this point--he is extremely well-bred for the surface. His grass performances have come vs. some tough competition, and while he probably wasn't going to win the Palm Beach stakes last time, he did have legitimate trouble on the turn when impeded by a rival and forced to steady.  
We will take him to rebound here, and use him with returning 3yo #6 Mansion House, who impressed with his strong finish after some traffic trouble in his stateside debut.  They will, however, have to be conscious of the race dynamics early, as Pace Projector favors runners on or near the early lead in this race, and indicates that #2 Canzoni, who owns the top speed figure in the field for his 3rd place finish behind repeater Chart Topper last out, will be in a prime early position.  
Selections:  3-6-2-4-7
Race 9:  We were impressed with #7 Raffies Bay's turf debut last year at Tampa, as he contested a hot pace before giving way to closers late.  He then endured a tough trip after trouble at the start when sent to NY for his second start on grass.  To us, he may be quite a bit better than he looks, and if he's ready to go off the layoff, he may prove tough in this field.  #1 Forever Utopia is logical based on last year's turf form, and is tactical enough to pull a nice trip from his inside post. #10 With Expression shouldn't be ignored, as he debuted in a race at the end of last year that was dominated up close, and he will receive lasix for the first time today.
Selections:  7-1-10-9