Monday, June 16, 2014
TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer
Analysis for Wednesday June 17th at Belmont
Race 1: We've said this more than once before, but #6 Cost Affective is the horse to beat here, and, based on his career to this point, we have to be against him. Yes, he exits the strongest effort of his career, posting a new top speed figure of 99 in a narrow loss at this level, but that was yet another no-excuse loss in what is becoming a long line of them for this horse. Our alternative to him in here is #1 Yankee Dime. He starts for the hot Nick Zito barn, and he showed enough in a pair of tough NY maiden races last year to give him a look in here. #3 My Son Ernie ran talented stablemate Profluent to a photo first time out, and exits a live race at Pimlico last out; speed-type may be compromised with #4 Perfect Danger drawn right outside him.
Race 2: #6 Barbara's Smile impressed with wide run in debut win, and comes back to a spot in which she fits well.
The others have had their chances, and while #4 Sundae School ran well last time, we prefer #1 Devilish Love (who has a long layoff to overcome) and #2 Medaglia d'Argento (who took advantage of a fast pace last time) to her.
Race 3: This seems a good spot for ML favorite #6 Penthouse Party, who earned speed figures for her last two dirt races that are faster than anything any of her rivals has run recently, and she has proven in the past that she can bring her race to NY; projects for nice trip out in clear tracking her main rival, #2 Platinum Bombshell, who has the speed and has posted 2 of her 3 career wins over this distance.
Race 4: #11 Stormkeeper could only be second best as a heavy favorite in her debut, but she ran well that day in putting in a game stretch run once altering off the inside, and she figures to benefit from both that experience and the drop in class. #1 Tordita also ran well while settling for second best last time, and she is an interesting case for our new pedigree ratings as, while she doesn't get much turf influence from her sire, she gets plenty from her dam, who was a three-time turf winner herself and is a half-sister to the graded stakes performer Somali Lemonade.
#2 Prove It All Night flashed plenty of speed and little stamina as a 2yo, so returning at this shorter trip makes sense; drop in for the price won't hurt, but there is other speed signed on here.
Race 5: We expected more from #1A Kate Greenaway last time, and were frankly disappointed with her chase-and-fade effort that day. In her defense, she caught a muddy track, which she didn't have to like, and she also ran into a very impressive winner. With a perfect post on the outside from which to track the pace, she can be given one more chance, and perhaps at a slightly better price this time. #2 Shayjolie made a highly promising debut of her own last time, taking money and closing gamely despite being forced to go around horses to the outside as the winner got a neat split to make the lead; normal caveats apply for the muddy, sealed track she competed over, and that was a race in which the heavy favorite, Brilliant Jewel, was a no-show. #7 Rapid Repair is a short price on the ML, and her last race was an improvement, but we'd like to see it again, as she was run down by a longshot winner that day without any apparent excuse.
Race 6: #6 Hillhouse High was the bigger price of a pair saddled by Chad Brown on May 18, but ran the better race by far that day after being forced into an early move after the lead; she has disappointed before, but that was a strong effort within the context of the race last time, and a similar effort will make her tough. #4 Inspired by Grace faces a tough stretch-out in distance from 5-to-7 furlongs, but she was impressive rolling over maidens last time despite taking a shuffle on the turn. #7 Knacque posted an easy maiden win over just three others in an off-the-turf event last time, but has turf form that makes her competitive here, and #2 Charm City Girl did a lot of racing with pressure from several challengers to break her maiden in her turf debut last month; her unraced dam is out of the multiple Grade 1-winning turfer Tout Charmant, so it's no surprise that she improved with the switch.
Race 7: #2 Mister Popsicle had little chance in a stakes race last time, and got a bad ride being wrangled back off of a walking pace in turf debut at Aqueduct; in position to take advantage of a similar scenario this time, according to Pace Projector.
#8 Asset Inflation was a clear-cut winner of turf debut last summer at Saratoga, but hasn't been seen since, and returns for a tag with all of his conditions left; trainer aces with runners returning from layoffs. #3 Archer Hill is capable, but has proven difficult to handle on the track; drops in for the price in third start back this year.
Race 8: Not sure what happened with #7 Papy last time, as he didn't fire as the strong favorite, but he has already run a strong race over this longer trip, and that is no small thing. Difficult to land anywhere else with confidence. #3 Special Agent has a big pedigree for dirt, but disappointed there and needed every inch of a perfect trip provided by Castellano to win his turf debut last time. #4 Upper East Side could be a dangerous player with his speed, but faces a tough hike up in distance.
Race 9: Finale projects to be run at a fast pace, and that plays best for #10 You You, who switches back to dirt at a likely level; posted much-the-best win from off the pace when last on the main track here. #2 Three for Me was part of a contested pace in a race that fell to closers last week, but he's run well from off the pace before, and he hasn't had many fair chances since debut win. #3 Donttellyourmother drops down while switching from turf to dirt, and has earned some of the best figures in the field, but he's a speed horse and faces a tough scenario here.