Picks & Plays for Sunday, July 16
by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 1: 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 8 - 11 - 10
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 7 - 8 - 6 - 9
Race 6: 11 - 5 - 1 - 10
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 5 - 10
Race 8: 9 - 10 - 5 - 4
Race 9: 9 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 10: 3 - 5 - 1 - 8
Race 11: 9 - 4 - 11 - 6
RACE 2: ONE PENNY PIECE (#6)
Peru has to be considered the horse to beat on the drop in class. She comes into this race with superior speed figures for a respected barn. However, it’s not as if she’s done that much actual running in her recent starts, and I wonder if she’s going to be an underlay. The morning-line favorite is Magsamelia, but I don’t trust her. She’s always been a little suspect at seven furlongs, and she figures to face more pace pressure today after walking on the lead last time. Instead, I’ll take a different horse out of that race. One Penny Piece was most compromised by dynamics that day, as the early fractions were extremely slow (color-coded in blue in the PPs). She was really rolling in the lane but had just been left with too much ground to make up. She’s run well at this distance before, and I think she deserves another chance in her second start for Robertino Diodoro.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 7,8,10,11
RACE 8: ALASKAN PRINCE (#9)
The runner coming in from out of town who is likely to attract the most attention is Maniacal. He ran well in his turf debut two back when hugging the rail before encountering traffic trouble late, but then he totally fell apart when fading badly against a similar group in his most recent start. He’s dropping in class, but he’s unreliable. Instead, I want the other horse coming out of those Churchill Downs races, Alaskan Prince. While Maniacal ran better two back, this horse has gotten wide trips in his last two starts and is a more reliable option at a much more attractive price. He and logical favorite The Zip Zip Man should be closing late in a race that should feature an honest pace.
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,4,5,8,10
RACE 10: RUNAWAY POSSE (#3)
This might be the toughest race on the card. You could make a case for any number of horses, and it’s very difficult to find the center of this race. El Talento will probably go favored off two strong local performances, but this is the toughest field he’s ever met. Furthermore, he’s likely to face pace pressure from Mineralogy and his stablemate Diamond Jim. Air Vice Marshall is a tough horse to read. His dirt start two back was encouraging, and that’s not even supposed to be his preferred surface. However, he was awful as the favorite last time over a boggy turf course and must rebound here. Ultimately, I landed on Runaway Posse, who may offer decent value. While this horse has primarily run in route races recently, I’ve always thought he’s at his best around one turn, and seven furlongs is the perfect distance for him. He actually ran better than it appears last time when getting an impatient ride from Dylan Davis. Today’s rival Lord of Love beat him that day, but Runaway Posse encountered traffic in the stretch, which certainly cost him a higher placing. Danny Gargan’s runners have been performing well at the end of this Belmont meet.
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,8,13
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5,8 with 1,2,5,8,9,11,13