Picks & Plays for Saturday, June 3
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 6 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 3: 7 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 7 - 10
Race 5: 7 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 6: 9 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 7: 6 - 8 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 6 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 8 - 1
Race 10: 6 - 2 - 12 - 8
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
There’s little doubt that Highland Grace (#5) is the horse to beat. This well-bred filly has been steadily improving with each start and may have just finally found a field that she’s supposed to beat. I really liked the way she finished two back in a race where the pace held together at Gulfstream, and then last time she launched a big rally from far back to get up for second. The only knock against her is that she will have to stretch out to 1 3/8 miles, which adds a level of uncertainty to what would otherwise look like a straightforward race. And distance could be a key factor for two of her main rivals, both second time starters from the Christophe Clement stable. Pret a Toucher (#8) actually comes out of the same race as Highland Grace, though she didn’t run as well in what was her career debut. Added distance figures to aid this daughter of War Front, who has plenty of stamina on the bottom side of her pedigree. I also won’t be surprised when she gets a more aggressive ride from Joel Rosario this time. Yet I prefer the other Clement runner Settling Storm (#4). This daughter of Tonalist just looks like one that wants to run all day. She’s a rangy, leggy type who was pretty one-paced in her debut where she stayed on for second going 9 furlongs. The extra distance figures to work to her benefit, and she’s bred to be a good one, as a half-sister to graded stakes winner American Lion. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see her up close to the race given her grinding style.
Fair Value:
#4 SETTLING STORM, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 4
Souffle (#7) is obviously the horse to beat as she returns from a layoff for her 3-year-old debut. She earned a flashy speed figure when she was unveiled last summer at Saratoga, just missing as the favorite in a fast race. She understandably attracted a ton of support when she came back for her second start at Aqueduct, but she regressed significantly finishing off the board as the 2-5 choice. There has to be some question about which version of Souffle is going to show up off the layoff, and she figures to be a short price once again. Spooky Lady (#3) is a difficult runner to assess as she moves up in class. She obviously took to turf last time when earning a field-best 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure for a narrow loss. Yet that was a weaker maiden claiming event and I’m a little skeptical that she can repeat that effort against tougher going 7 furlongs. I actually think the horse to beat is Snowy Evening (#5). This filly has run well in most of her turf sprint starts, and she has the recency that some others lack. She closed nicely for second in her return to turf in April and then last time was staying on best of all at the end in what may have been a stronger race for the level. She’s wheeling back on just 7 days’ rest, but nevertheless looks dangerous with Jose Ortiz getting aboard. My top pick is Cerretta (#4), who figures to be a better price. This filly seemed to really appreciate the turnback in distance on turf last year when she made a wild late run from far back to just miss in a maiden claiming event going 6 furlongs. She probably would have won that day if not for a poor start. She got back on turf last time off the layoff at Aqueduct and ran better than the result indicates. She was wide throughout, reserved off a slow pace that held together. Yet she was finishing best of all at the end, and we’ve seen horses return to run well out of that spot. H. James Bond does better second off a layoff than first off a layoff, and I think the 7-furlong distance will be perfect for her.
Fair Value:
#4 CERRETTA, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 5
David Jacobson’s barn has really come alive during the past month, so perhaps his entrant No More Talk (#1) will win his second in a row here after taking down a $16k claimer last week. Yet this is a much tougher spot than the prior races he’s won on this circuit, and he’s going to be a short price again with Irad Ortiz aboard. Others who figure to take money include Lohengrin Two (#4) and Heir Port (#6), though both are need the lead types who figure to hook up early. I think this is a great race in which to get a little more creative. First Deputy (#2) is surely one to consider as he drops in class. He’s been facing much tougher company at the state-bred N2X level and he won his last start for a $25k claiming tag in February. He tends to be slow out of the gate, so he really needs the pace to come apart, but that’s a possibility. My top pick is Charlie Five O (#7), who I believe will offer the best value of anyone in this race. Some may find it difficult to take these connections, but the horse has held his form pretty well since getting claimed by Eduardo Jones. He’s simply been running in many spots that are too tough for him. The most realistic spot he’s been in since the claim is a $32k claimer in April where he ran well to be third. Since then he was on a dead rail on April 20, and then last time he made a nice middle move before flattening out against a much tougher starter allowance field. He’s getting the class relief he needs and a rider upgrade to Oscar Gomez.
Fair Value:
#7 CHARLIE FIVE O, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 6
I’m not thrilled with many of the contenders who could take money in this allowance affair. Diamond Hands (#4) might go favored with Irad Ortiz aboard, but she’s hard to trust on the turnback after disappointing in a series of route races. They add blinkers to this front-runner, but there’s other speed signed on. I’m also not too keen on the horses who exit that April 16 allowance event at Aqueduct. Redifined (#1) is an enigma as she tries to get back on track following a poor effort at Tampa. Yet I’m concerned about the way she’s shut down late in each of her last two races and wonder if there’s an issue preventing her from displaying the form we saw at the start of her career. Cadencia (#11) would obviously be a major player if she drew into the field off the AE list. She ran a nice speed figure last time when dominating starter allowance foes and is obviously a danger in her current form. She figures to sit off Gun Boat (#3) in the early stages, and that Shug McGaughey trainee is another win candidate. The layoff is a concern, but she showed some promise as a 2-year-old and has a right to do having had some time to mature. Given my reservations about many of the short prices, I want to look outside the box. Michele M. (#9) figures to get somewhat overlooked despite going out for Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario. She obviously didn’t run very fast in either start last season on synthetic. Yet she’s bred to be more of a turf horse, by burgeoning turf influence West Coast out of a strong female grass family. The dam is a half-sister to millionaire turf horse Wilcox Inn, from the female family of awesome turf horses like Cetewayo, Dynaforce, Bowman Mill, and Innovation Economy. They paid quite a bit of money for her as a 2-year-old and Christophe Clement has placed her ambitiously off the layoff in her first start for his barn.
Fair Value:
#9 MICHELE M., at 9-1 or greater
RACE 7
I’m a little skeptical of Cumberland (#2) as the potential favorite in this maiden event. This colt obviously ran well when last seen at Gulfstream, setting the pace before getting run down by the talented Kalik, who will be one of the favorites in the Pennine Ridge. However, he debuted going 5 furlongs, and I wonder if he’s a horse who really gets better with added distance. He’s actually been entered twice already at this meet in races rained off the turf, and those were races carded at 6 and 7 furlongs. He’s the horse to beat, but I have reservations at a short price. You also might have to take a short price on Redistricting (#8), who appears to be a live first time starter for Chad Brown. This son of top sire Kingman is extremely well-bred, being out of a dam who is a full-sister to Breeders’ Cup Turf winner St. Nicholas Abbey. His last workout matches the aforementioned Kalik, and he’s expected to run well here. Yet I’m more interested in some runners with more experience. Balthazar (#4) makes some sense after steadily improving through his first four starts. He lacks the upside of some others, but seems like a reliable option. My top pick at a potentially bigger price is Ohana Honor (#6). This colt showed some talent early in his career on dirt, but didn’t really progress on that surface. He switched to turf last time and I thought he might have won that race with a clear stretch run. He was reserved off a moderate pace and had to wait for room in upper stretch before hitting his best stride too late. Any added distance figures to help him, and he’s getting a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat.
Fair Value:
#6 OHANA HONOR, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast early pace, which should work in the favor of likely favorite Shadow Dragon (#7). I wasn’t a big fan of this horse on the Derby trail, but he is now getting significant and needed class relief as he drops into this New York-bred allowance. He obviously handles the distance, and an honest pace up front should suit his style. I’m not against him, but I also don’t expect him to be much of a price. My top pick is Ormstown (#6). This 3-year-old feels like a runner on the rise. He didn’t run to his full potential in the first two starts of his career, as he needed his debut and then got the wrong trip second time out. He put it all together last time, easily making the front end before drawing away under mild encouragement. This half-brother to stakes winner Water’s Edge really improved with the stretch-out, and he doesn’t strike me as a need-the-lead type. I don’t think he has to take much of a step forward to beat the favorite, and he still has upside.
Fair Value:
#6 ORMSTOWN, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 9
I’ll be interested to see how this Pennine Ridge is bet. I didn’t make him the morning line favorite, but I view Kalik (#6) as the one to beat. His running style just gives him a massive pace advantage, and he kicked for home so impressively when using front-running tactics in his allowance score last time. That 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him one of the fastest horses in here, and the 9-furlong configuration on the inner should suit him perfectly. I made him 7-2 on the morning line, but I have a feeling he might go off at a shorter price given those obvious merits and Irad Ortiz in the saddle. Among the short prices, Far Bridge (#8) is the one that I would lean towards downgrading slightly. This colt is obviously quite gifted, but he’s gotten perfect trips in all of his starts and he may have to overcome some adversity here. My top pick is Silver Knott (#4), who I view as the most likely winner. He showed real ability as a 2-year-old, especially in winning a pair of Group 3 events last fall in England. He narrowly lost as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but he ran a gallant race that day, overcoming a slow start before knifing through a narrow opening at the rail in the stretch. He failed to show up with his good effort off the layoff in the 2000 Guineas, but that was an ambitious spot and he’s not at his best over soft ground. I like him stretching out to 9 furlongs, since he has a done of stamina on the bottom side of his pedigree. He just needs to break cleanly. Lachaise (#1) is the one price I tried to make a case for, as I liked his effort in the Pilgrim. This is just a tall order off the layoff.
Fair Value:
#4 SILVER KNOTT, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 10
This finale is a real skull buster. I would actually prefer AE Miracle Mike (#14) had drawn into the main body of the field, since he would at least be a horse to bet against. He got a great trip last time, closing into a very fast pace, and would take money based on connections. Among the main body of the field, a different horse out of that race is the one to beat. Barry the Builder (#2) made the first move into that quick pace, making up a ton of ground on the backstretch to contest the lead into the far turn before fading late. I thought that was a mild step forward on his 2-year-old form, and he could step forward again second off the layoff with Lasix going on. The interesting new face in here is Bad Larry (#12), who tries turf for the first time first off the claim for Mike Maker. He has plenty of turf pedigree, being by new turf influence Collected out of a dam who won on turf and has produced a turf winner. He faced some decent fields in his first two starts and finished well last time after reacting badly to kickback. I think he’ll like the surface, but the stretch-out is a minor concern. It’s also not as if he’s going to be some enticing price. My top pick is Just for Luck (#6). I have to give this horse one more chance after trying him last time in a tougher spot. He didn’t do much running that day, just trailing throughout, but he didn’t finish that far behind some others who are considered contenders in this spot. He did show ability on debut last year at Keeneland, overcoming a poor star to make a nice stretch rally against a better field. Perhaps switching into the Ray Handal barn and adding blinkers can help wake him up. He figures to be a generous price.
Fair Value:
#6 JUST FOR LUCK, at 10-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Friday, June 2
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 5: 5 - 7 - 8 - 2
Race 6: 5 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 7: 8 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 1A - 2 - 8
Race 9: 8 - 5 - 4 - 6
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
I’ll be interested to see how much money Cant Keep Me Down (#1) takes in this maiden claimer. She was a little chilly on the board in her debut last summer, and was unable to capitalize on a good trip. She was apparently purchased since then by Three Diamonds and transferred to Mike Maker. She now stretches out off the layoff while making a realistic drop into a high-priced maiden claimer. Maker is 6 for 17 (35%, $3.35 ROI) when he doesn’t use Lasix 180+ day layoffs over the past 5 years. She’s logical, but I worry she could be overbet with Irad taking the mount. Diamond Status (#5) might be the horse to beat in her current form, but it’s a little tough to endorse an 0 for 12 maiden. I thought she put in a nice effort against a tougher field at Monmouth last time, and now she’s dropping back down to a level at which she’s had success before. However, it is a little worrisome that she’s lost the early speed she once possessed. My top pick is Solevo Spritz (#2). She debuted at a lower level than this sprinting on turf at Aqueduct, showing decent early speed. She didn’t have much to offer in the lane, just staying on at one pace after a wide trip. Yet that felt like the kind of effort a horse might build upon, and she is bred to go longer, especially on her dam’s side. I would expect her to display more speed on the stretch-out in a race where forward position may be an asset. She has upside first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez and should be a square price.
Fair Value:
#2 SOLEVO SPRITZ, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 4
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario where Melting Snow (#7) has a clear early lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. That could be the case given her superior tactical speed. However, she was a little sluggish last time, unable to make the front before fading going this distance. Now she’s making her first start off the claim for Ray Handal, but she’s rarely an enticing price and I wonder if her last race is a sign she’s heading in the wrong direction. Customerexperience (#1) is a little more appealing on form, but I do worry about a lack of pace in this race. She’s a confirmed closer, and was badly compromised by a slow pace last time against tougher. Happy Sophia (#4) also rallies from off the pace, but she doesn’t have to be as far back in the early stages as she was last time. She leapt up at the start and did well to get up for second behind a runaway winner. This is a realistic spot off the claim and the price should be fair. My top pick is Run Devil (#5), who just appears to have multiple arrows pointing in her direction. She looks a little cheap, but I actually like the step up in class off the claim. Rob Atras is 9 for 26 (35%, $2.38 ROI) first off the claim with horses moving up in claiming price by 50% or more on dirt over 5 years. She lost a weaker race last time, but she had previously been in good form, and she possesses the tactical speed to get the right kind of stalking trip. I also think Manny Franco could be the right fit for a horse who tends to require some vigorous encouragement.
Fair Value:
#5 RUN DEVIL, at 7-2 or greater
#4 HAPPY SOPHIA, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 5
It’s a little concerning that $200k purchase River Tay (#8) is debut for a $40k tag, but I would tend to respect this filly anyway. Wesley Ward generally has success debuting horses in maiden claiming races, though the numbers are a little better on dirt than turf. I really liked her workout at the OBS March sale last year, but it’s obviously taken her a while to get to the races. She has the pedigree to be a turf sprinter, and John Velazquez takes the mount, so I won’t be surprised when she runs well. Lexi’s Spirit (#7) is a viable alternative as she gets class relief. She has shown some promise in turf sprints on occasion, but just seems a little overmatched at the maiden special weight level. She ran a decent race last time, wearing cheekpieces, but was unable to make up any ground through the final quarter. This is a softer spot and she has a good chance to break through if she merely holds her form. My top pick is Now Showing (#5). I don’t think we’ve seen the best this filly has to offer in either of her turf starts to date. She got badly shuffled and steadied back in traffic when she made her turf debut against a much tougher field at Gulfstream in March. Then last time she stretched out to a mile at Keeneland and was too keen though the early stages, rushing up to contest the pace from the outside draw. She’s more effective sprinting, and now she drops to a more realistic level. I believe she has more turf ability than the results indicate, and the price should be fair enough.
Fair Value:
#5 NOW SHOWING, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 6
Mondego (#4) is exiting a maiden here going this same distance four weeks ago, and a repeat of that performance makes him one of the primary contenders here. There doesn’t appear to be an abundance of speed signed on in this race, and his running style makes him a danger to wire the field. He also may be one of the most naturally talented horses in the field, as he showed promise on debut and seemed to put it all together last time when returning to front-running tactics. Among his main rivals is Clever Thought (#9), who got too far behind a slow pace last time at Keeneland but had previously run well in a pair of maiden events at Gulfstream. However, he will get a rider change to Ruben Silvera with Irad Ortiz going out of town to ride the Penn Mile. C’Est Magnifique (#6) is another to consider. He was also compromised by a lack of pace in his most recent start when closing for third behind his stablemate. Added distance should suit him, but new rider Eric Cancel will have to work out a trip. I’m most interested in a pair of first time turfers. My top pick is Jungfrau (#5), who showed promise early on and progressed nicely during his 2-year-old season. However, he was too ambitiously campaigned following a maiden victory by disqualification over the winter. He failed to show up in both the Withers and Florida Derby, so now Bill Mott will try something new. I’m sure turf was always a backup plan for this colt, given that he’s out of a dam who was campaigned in Europe who is a daughter of multiple Group 1 winner Special Duty. He gets Lasix for the first time and has the tactical speed to work out a forward trip in a race that lacks pace. I also want to use first time turfer Game Change (#7). He’s another who has recently gone the wrong way on dirt, but he showed some promise over the winter and has pedigree for this surface. He runs with an extended, high-striding action that should translate well to the grass, and he figures to be a generous price.
Fair Value:
#5 JUNGFRAU, at 5-1 or greater
#7 GAME CHANGE, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 8
This race was tough to wrap my head around. I suppose Deep Cover (#8) is the horse to beat as he returns from a layoff and drops in class. However, there are some red flags here. He showed the ability to win an N2X state-bred allowance last year, but he’s immediately dropping in for the tag following a break. Tom Morley is 3 for 43 (7%, $0.98 ROI) off 150-300 day layoffs over the past 5 years, so these types often need a start. The Oscar Barrera entry also makes sense, but I’m always reticent to take entries in this situation. I have more trust in Upper Level (#1A), who has dangerous speed with Jaime Torres aboard. Truebelieve (#1) has better overall form, but he’s tough to trust off a layoff at a short price with this low-percentage jockey named. These factors make me want to search for some better prices. One option to consider is He’s Got It (#3), who moves way up in class off the claim for Rob Atras. His recent dirt form leaves something to be desired, but he's clearly a better turf horse, and now he’s getting back on his preferred surface. As noted for Run Devil earlier, Atras has good stats moving horses up off the claim, and he ran some races on this circuit last year that put him in the mix. My top pick at a bigger price is Marathoner (#7). He looks too slow based on his recent form, but I don’t think we’ve seen the best he has to offer lately. He got significantly steadied heading into the far turn in his last turf race in April, and I don’t want to judge him off his surrounding dirt form. He shipped to Belmont to try turf once last year and nearly caused a 29-1 upset when just missing at a similar level. Marya Montoya has had some success with NYRA shippers in a limited sample. Marathoner has run a few other turf races out of town that put him in the mix and he’s going to be an enticing price.
Fair Value:
#7 MARATHONER, at 11-1 or greater
#3 HE'S GOT IT, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 9
Distance is a key factor in this 11-furlong maiden event that closes out the card, as most of the runners in this field are stretching out to a marathon trip for the first time. Typhoon Lagoon (#6), one of the few 4-year-olds in the lineup, is the only runner to have previously tried the distance. I could use him in exotics, but some others appear to have more upside. Likely favorite Cyber Ninja (#5) earned a solid speed figure on dirt in his career debut, but visually appeared to show more of an affinity for turf when he switched surfaces in his second start. He was put in tight quarters and got shuffled back on the first turn, racing keenly in a bunched field. Despite being relegated to the back of the pack behind a slow pace, he produced the best finish of all to just miss getting up. He seems like one that’s cut out to run all day based on his physicality and pedigree, so the stretch-out makes sense. He figures to be a handful if he shows up with his best effort. My top pick is one of the Christophe Clement trainees. American Hustle (#8) has raced on dirt in his last couple of starts, but I think he’s going to appreciate switching back to grass. He handled dirt reasonably well last November, and showed some real stamina to stay on for third in that demanding 9 furlong affair. That performances gives me some confidence that he’ll appreciate this longer distance on turf. His turf performances as a two-year-old got progressively stronger with each start. He stayed on well when picking up the pieces last September, and then finished a deceptively strong fourth in a very live maiden race in October. He wouldn’t have to improve much on those 100 TimeformUS Speed Figures to factor here, and he should be capable of better now that he’s a 3-year-old. I also want to use first time turfer Juan Valdez (#4). This expensive auction purchase has been a disappointment, but I think he’s going to appreciate the surface switch. He’s moves like a turf horse and does have enough influences in his pedigree. He’s only sprinted on dirt so far, but I think longer distances will suit him much better. He’s taken money in prior starts, but should finally be a more generous price.
Fair Value:
#8 AMERICAN HUSTLE, at 7-2 or greater
#4 JUAN VALDEZ, at 9-1 or greater
TimeformUS Analysis to return next week
David Aragona is on vacation. His TimeformUS Analysis will return for the Friday, June 2 card at Belmont.
Picks & Plays for Saturday, May 27
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 6: 3 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 10: 6 - 7 - 9 - 10
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
This compact field has attracted a pretty competitive group despite only sporting 5 betting interests. The West Point entry of Dripping Gold (#1) and Q F Seventy Five (#1A) figures to vie for favoritism, but I’m against both of them, especially at a short price. They’re each moving up from N1X victories where they got perfect trips, and the waters get much deeper here. I think the horse to beat is Portfolio Company (#4) and could get him if he doesn’t go favored. I like the rider switch back to Joel Rosario, since Irad Ortiz may be have been overconfident when he rode this horse last time. He advanced willingly to the top of the stretch, but was ridden without much urgency until it was too late. I also like the way Rosario has gotten this sometimes headstrong horse to relax when he’s ridden him, producing some of his better finishes. He has versatility that should allow him to work out a trip in this small field. Space Launch (#5) had a valid excuse when last seen on Nov. 19, since he raced 3-wide around both turns. However, he might need a start off the layoff and won’t be much of a price with Irad Ortiz taking the mount. Daunt (#2) would be the other horse that interests me. He ran pretty well off the layoff in a thinner field than even this one. I expect him to run well again, but I still would prefer to see him going a bit longer down the road.
Fair Value:
#4 PORTFOLIO COMPANY, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 5
Utilization Rate (#6) will probably go favored again based purely on connections, even though her form doesn’t give her much of an advantage over this field. She was an extremely short price as part of an entry last time against what appeared to be a weaker maiden field than this one. Yet she was unable to hold on that day, and she’s going to be a short price again with Irad Ortiz getting back aboard. I much prefer Doral (#4) among the shorter prices. This filly showed some talent on debut when she made a menacing late rally to just miss. She hasn’t really stepped forward since then, but I didn’t love the trip she got last time at Keeneland when she was always out of position. This imposing filly has the natural ability to win a race like this if she can put it all together. One key feature of this race is an apparent lack of pace. Utilization Rate is shown leading on the Pace Projector, but I wonder if Chad Brown will be reluctant to send her forward again given the way she failed to hold the lead last time. I believe Mirabella (#1) could get sent to the front from her rail draw. This filly showed some ability on debut last year at Monmouth, only hitting her best stride late in that 5-furlong affair before galloping out powerfully. She was off for a long time thereafter, but returned on turf last month at Gulfstream with a decent effort. She actually broke very sharply and was contesting the pace into the clubhouse turn before others showed more initiative. While no match for the winner that day, she kept trying gamely through the finish in a race she might have needed. She figures to be ridden more aggressively from her advantageous rail draw this time, and I suspect she’s better than the form indicates.
Fair Value:
#1 MIRABELLA, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
The Soaring Softly didn’t draw the largest field, but there appears to be some talent among these 6 fillies. Love Appeals (#2) is obviously the horse to beat off her dominant allowance score last month, for which she earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She seems well suited to this distance, whereas some others still have to prove that they can be effective sprinters. My problem is that she’s likely to be a very short price now that her form is exposed, and I think some others possess more upside. My top pick is the other Christophe Clement runner Queen Picasso (#4). She won going longer on debut at Gulfstream, but that’s come up a very strong race. Multiple horses have come back to improve their speed figures, including the pace-setting runner-up, who won her next start with a 105 TimeformUS figure. This filly has good positional speed, which should allow her to work out a forwardly placed trip in a race that features a murky pace scenario. She’s also bred to handle this cutback in distance, being a half-sister to a Group 1 Prix de la Foret winner. The other filly who I would use at a bigger price is Quarrel (#5). She has some things to prove as she returns from a layoff for a barn not known for gearing horses up off extended breaks. However, she showed some grit to break her maiden on turf last year, earning a speed figure that makes her competitive here. She also ran very well sprinting on debut, so perhaps this shorter distance will actually work better for her. I’m happy to find out at a square price.
Fair Value:
#4 QUEEN PICASSO, at 4-1 or greater
#5 QUARREL, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 10
Perhaps I’m overcomplicating this finale by exploring alternatives to prohibitive favorite Loon Cry (#9). I recognize that she’s the horse to beat, but I’m just not thrilled with her at a short price. She got a great trip in her lone turf start at Aqueduct, sitting just off a moderate pace, and was unable to forge past the leader late. The winner of that race is pretty good, as she came back to run well against winners with a favorable trip. I just thought others would offer better value. Autumn (#7) is perhaps the most interesting runner out of that Loon Cry race on April 8. She clipped heels and fell in any ugly stretch incident, but it did appear that she had some run and was going to have a say in the outcome at the time she encountered that trouble. I expect her to run well, but she took money on debut and I wonder what kind of price she’ll be here. I want to give another chance to Lakeside Getaway (#6) as my top pick. She didn’t show up last time, but she’s going out for a barn that can be a little random at times. I thought this filly had shown some nice progression at Gulfstream over the winter. She ran a lot better than it looks in that Jan. 8 maiden race where she had significant trouble before running on late. And then she contested an extremely fast pace that fell apart on March 16, holding on well for fourth. This 7-furlong distance is supposed to be better for her, and now she’s going to be a much more enticing price off that disappointing result last time.
Fair Value:
#6 LAKESIDE GETAWAY, at 7-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Friday, May 26
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 1A/1 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 5: 8 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 9 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 9: 4 - 8 - 10 - 6
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Tass (#1) is clearly the class of this field. Some may be alarmed by the class drop, but she when at the $40k claiming level the last time she dropped in for a tag on this circuit. She’s now a 7-year-old who isn’t really competitive at the allowance levels for which she’s eligible, so this is a logical spot. Carlos Martin doesn’t have the best numbers off layoffs, but this mare has run well fresh before. She makes sense, but I think others may offer better value. Among the likely favorites, I prefer Lucky Peridot (#5). This mare’s last effort, where she finished second to the talented Sanura, would make her the one to beat if she could repeat it. However, that performance came on synth. While she has run some of her best races on that surface, she’s run well on turf plenty of times. She was actually going to win her turf start in February, but she got stymied in a pocket for the final quarter mile. They’re both logical, but my top pick is Strong Odor (#3). This turf sprinter will attempt to stretch out to a route for the first time since 2021. In that prior turf route, she was second in a two-turn 7 1/2-furlong event at Indy, producing a strong finish in the stretch after getting held up early. It’s a little odd that she hasn’t gone long ever since then, though she has had success sprinting. The drop in class is understandable, since she hasn’t won recently. Yet she ran better than it might appear in that return to grass last time, where she got a conservative ride, appearing to finish with something left in the tank. Mike Maker is 12 for 71 (17%, $2.39 ROI) going from sprints to turf routes at NYRA over 5 years.
Fair Value:
#3 STRONG ODOR, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 5
Mauritius (#3) really took to turf last time despite not possessing an abundance of turf pedigree. He didn’t break that sharply, which prevented him from showing his typical early speed. Yet he always traveled in the bridle and finished up with good energy through the lane. That was an unusually strong field for the level, and runner-up Splendid Summer came back to win impressively here recently. This one-turn mile on grass should suit him even better, and he has the early zip to lead this field early if he breaks cleanly. Yet he’s moving up in class and there are some class droppers to consider, including Paratus (#4) and Penner Ash (#7). Both are looking to get back on track after lackluster returns in Florida. I’m willing to be a little more forgiving of Paratus, who faced some very tough fields in his two allowance attempts over the winter. His plodding running style is a minor concern, but the drop in class could do wonders for a horse who showed some talent as a 2-year-old. However, I want to go in a different direction in my search for value. General’s Duty (#8) had to drop in against maiden claimers to get his first victory last year, but he did have a few trips. He was particularly compromised on June 25 when he was steadied at a couple points, and then on Sep. 25 when he was extremely rank in the early stages of that race before finishing well. This deep closer actually travels in the bridle and could be more forward with Trevor McCarthy off the layoff. I usually despite progeny of Union Rags on the turf, but this gelding comes from a strong female turf pedigree tracing to second dam Bit of Whimsy. I find it notable that he’s placed ambitiously in his return for Jane Cibelli, who did win with a turf horse moving up in class already at this meet.
Fair Value:
#8 GENERAL'S DUTY, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 7
The scratch of Bronx Bomber actually makes this race easier for me, since I usually don't like to endorse coupled entries. This was a case where I liked both halves, but I'm happy to be left with Winning Drive (#1) on top, since he figured to be the bigger price of the two anyway. Winning Drive is a less obvious contender than his former entrymate, but I think he makes a lot of sense in this spot. He was competitive with these when competing for Rob Atras this winter, and he held his form well when claimed by Mertkan Kantarmaci last time. He had some issues early in the race, shuffled back while reacting badly to kickback. Yet he stayed on gamely at the end. These connections have been in a bit of a slump, so perhaps this entry won’t take as much money as it should. I’m also not thrilled with other likely short prices. I’d rather consider horses like Striking Speed (#4) and Prince James (#5). The former didn’t run so well first off the claim for Charlton Baker last time, but he was compromised by a poor start and could be more forwardly placed this time. Prince James moves up in class, but he’s steadily improved for the dangerous Ray Handal barn.
Fair Value:
#1 WINNING DRIVE, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 8
There’s no doubt that Whatlovelookslike (#3) is the horse to beat in this New York-bred allowance affair. However, she’s going to be a very short price off exposed form and some obvious trouble in her return race. Coming back off a 6-month layoff last time, she stumbled awkwardly away from the gate before chasing 3-wide around both turns. One could make an argument that she ran just as well as, if not better than, the winner Sanura. If she moves forward in this second start of her 4-year-old season, she’s going to be a handful. However, I don’t think she’s a cinch in a race where she figures to be the prohibitive favorite. Among those who finished behind Whatlovelookslike last time, the only one who I would project to improve is Home for Christmas (#1), who ran like a mare who needed the race off a layoff. She’s raced herself into fitness in the past, and was always out of position last time after a slight bobble at the start. Sweet Franny Lu (#5) is another option, as she returns from a 10-month layoff. She ran a couple of races last year that would make her competitive against this field, including that July 20 runner-up effort where she didn’t get the best trip or ride. However, Tom Morley has poor numbers off layoffs of this type. I want to go in a different direction for my top pick. Starship Laoban (#4) only just made her turf debut last month after 13 prior starts on dirt. She certainly appeared to take to the surface despite getting into some trouble. Breaking from the middle of the starting gate, she got sandwiched from both sides a few strides into the race as runners crossed over, causing her to get squeezed back to last. Closing from the back of the pack is not a familiar running style for this filly, but she nevertheless put in a game rally through the stretch to get up for third in a race that featured a tepid pace. I don’t mind the stretch-out at all given her physicality, and I suspect she can be part of the pace this time with a clean start.
Fair Value:
#4 STARSHIP LAOBAN, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 9
This conditioned claimer is one of the most interesting races of the day. Contention runs deep and horses are converging from a variety of class levels. I generally wanted to avoid shorter priced options like Foliage (#9) and Heymackit’sjack (#11). The former showed competitive turf sprint form in early 2022, but he didn’t look like the same horse for Tom Drury earlier this year, and subsequently sold at auction for just $22k last month. Now he gets Irad Ortiz aboard, so he's almost guaranteed to be favored by default. Heymackit’sjack ran some big races over 5 furlongs at Gulfstream over the winter, but he hasn’t been quite as successful going this distance, especially at Belmont. Volkert (#8) strikes me as the horse to beat, and he’s unlikely to be favored. This 5-year-old put forth plenty of competitive turf sprint efforts earlier in his career before failing to handle a yielding course when he last tried turf a year ago. I’m not sure why he’s concentrated on dirt recently, but now he’s getting back to the right surface. At a big price I could even use a longshot like Moon Hunter (#10). He looks slow on paper, but he’s going back to the barn of Michelle Hemingway, for whom he broke his maiden last year, and he’s also reunited with winning pilot John Velazquez. I thought his last turf effort at this level wasn’t nearly as bad as it looks, since the rider gave up on him and he finished with something left in the tank. My top pick is a first time turfer. Royal King (#4) might be the most naturally talented horse in this field based on the evidence of his February maiden win. He’s gone in the wrong direction since then, but he’s had excuses. He didn’t want any part of a route distance two back, and last time he blew the start before rushing up. Mike Maker obviously didn’t make a great claim for $75k, as he’s now dropping in for $30k. Yet the switch to turf may be more than an afterthought for this particular horse. While his pedigree doesn’t exactly say grass, his dam was a turf winner who moved up on the surface. It’s also notable that Royal King’s best race came over a sealed track, which he just skipped over, moving much more freely than in his subsequent dirt races. He strikes me as one that will appreciate turf, and he certainly has the quality to defeat a field like this if he handles the surface.
Fair Value:
#4 ROYAL KING, at 5-1 or greater
#10 MOON HUNTER, at 14-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Sunday, May 21
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 10 - 9 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 7 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 10 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 4: 10 - 9 - 11 - 1A
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 11 - 3 - 6
Race 7: 10 - 3 - 2 - 9
Race 8: 10 - 7 - 13 - 12
Race 9: 7 - 1 - 2 - 5
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 4
I don’t trust Oglethorpe (#1A), who could vie for favoritism in this spot. His dirt speed figures make him look competitive, but I have serious doubts about the quality of his last race and don’t want to take him at a short price. Luni Sima (#9) makes plenty of sense in his recent form, but he’s not the most compelling win candidate. He figures to take money off his recent speed figures, and I’m concerned that this 1 1/16 miles distance is pushing him past his limit. Film Star (#11) seems like a better fit for this race as he makes his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. He was beaten to the lead after an awkward start last time, and now should play out as the controlling speed with little other pace signed on. I think that makes him the horse to beat. My top pick is Complete Agenda (#10). I thought this horse put in a game effort trying to rally into a slow pace last time. The comment line says he bled, but this horse never quit despite seeming to struggle with the sandy kickback. I actually prefer him getting back into a one-turn race, since I think he’s run better than it might appear around one turn in the past, getting some trips. He also figures to be the best price of the main contenders.
Fair Value:
#10 COMPLETE AGENDA, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 5
I don’t want to accept a likely short price on Business Model (#3) here. He has faced significantly better competition in most of his recent starts, but he also hasn’t done much running in any of those races. Brendan Walsh actually has solid statistics with horses making their first starts for a tag, but this gelding’s best days may be behind him. He also lacks any early speed and I’m hesitant to take short prices on deep closers. There really isn’t much speed signed on in this race, but I’m not thrilled with either of the horses who figure to go forward form the inside, Two Thirty Five (#1) and Black Belt (#2). Back Ring Luck (#6) should stalk outside of those two, and he’s much more appealing. David Jacobson has had some success on this circuit recently, and I just think this gelding is spotted appropriately for his return to New York. He didn’t get the smoothest trip last time at Oaklawn, and I view him as the horse to beat. My top pick at what should be a bigger price is Lafitte’s Fleet (#5). This horse has been popular at the claim box recently, and I liked that he was reclaimed by Rudy Rodriguez, for whom he previously ran well earlier this year. It's also a good sign that Rudy moves him up in class to the $50k level off the claim despite the fact that he ran poorly last time. Clearly there’s an expectation that this horse can rebound, and I don’t mind him stretching back out to the mile. He’s run well going this distance before and the expected moderate pace should keep him more engaged early.
Fair Value:
#5 LAFITTE'S FLEET, at 6-1 or greater
#6 BACK RING LUCK, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 7
This New York-bred allowance affair is one of the most wide open races on the entire card. It’s hard to know exactly where the public will land, though Miss Stones (#3) does figure to attract some support off her dominant maiden score last month. She had been rumored to be a good one prior to that race, and delivered on the hype, drawing off to an impressive victory. However, the waters get much deeper as she steps up against winners, and she finds herself in a race that features plenty of other speed. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with the aforementioned filly getting early pressure from Fancy Joke (#2) and Try It Again (#9), as well as potentially others who also want to be forwardly placed. My top pick is Fancy Feline (#10). Notably, she’s the horse with the LP flag (highest Late Pace Rating) on the Pace Projector, which is significant in a race that is predicted to feature a fast pace. I thought she had a legitimate excuse two back when she got steadied and shuffled back around the turn after trying to show improved speed. Then last time she was the only horse making up ground in a race otherwise dominated up front. I expect her to get a more favorable setup here as she picks up Joel Rosario.
Fair Value:
#10 FANCY FELINE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 9
Danseur d’Oro (#2) makes sense as the likely favorite. She’s returned this year with a series of improving efforts, and I think we saw the best she has to offer last time when rallying from just off the pace to miss by a nose. She may merely need to hold her current form to get the job done against this field, though I think others have a bit more upside. Second time starter She’s a Nine (#1) got a strange trip on debut. She was mildly cut off at the start when the eventual winner crossed over. She then tried to rush up to chase the pace, but was tentatively ridden. I’m not sure if she was trying to perhaps lug in at the quarter pole, but her rider basically gave up on her and just eased her home. The same jockey is back aboard today, so perhaps there was a plan there. One would imagine she’ll show more speed this time, having drawn the rail. My top pick at what figures to be a bigger price is Krystalheir (#7). Her debut was actually a decent effort. It wasn’t a fast race overall, but she ran well within the context of that affair, making up quite a bit of ground through the lane. She did step forward from a speed figure standpoint last time, while also showing vastly improved early speed. She’s now been off for a couple of months and returns with blinkers added. I do wonder if she's the type who will ultimately want more ground than this, but she still has some upside for low-profile connections and will be a generous price.
Fair Value:
#7 KRYSTALHEIR, at 9-1 or greater
#1 SHE'S A NINE, at 6-1 or greater
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