by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, get our TimeformUS Belmont Stakes Day Package, in which I do a deep dive into this card: horse-by-horse analysis for every horse in each of the ten stakes, plus betting strategies (yes, the actual tickets) for each race, including related pick 4 and pick 5 tickets.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 6 - 3 - 8
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 9 - 8 - 2
Race 6:   8 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 12 - 7
Race 8:   8 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 9:   8 - 10 - 1 - 2
Race 10:   1 - 10 - 13 - 3
Race 11:   8 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 12:   5 - 3 - 1 - 9
Race 13:   1 - 3 - 9 - 6

TOP PLAYS

 
Race 2, The Easy Goer:
MASK (#2)

Mask attempts to rebound from a disappointing performance as the favorite in last month’s Pat Day Mile. Before getting sent to the sidelines this winter, he was considered one of the top early contenders for the Kentucky Derby off the strength of his win in the Mucho Macho Man. He was allowed to set a slow pace that day, and he won with energy to spare under a light hand ride from Javier Castellano. He led that field wire to wire, but he’s certainly not one that needs the lead. The Pat Day Mile was a funny race. It seemed like horses that raced on the rail had a major advantage while everyone else was spinning their wheels racing outside, Mask included. I’m disregarding the effort, and will hope that he at least got some fitness out of the race. It’s a positive sign that he’s running back this quickly, and I’m not taking a strong stance against him. Rugbyman and Breaking the Rules are his two primary challengers, but both will need to improve if Mask rebounds.
 

Race 3, The Ogden Phipps:
ABEL TASMAN (#6)

How much stock should we put in Abel Tasman’s disappointing loss as the 3-5 favorite in the La Troienne? Salty and Martini Glass are nice fillies, but a champion like Abel Tasman is supposed to beat them. However, I do think it’s important to note that circumstances were not in Abel Tasman’s favor last time. The Churchill Downs surface was somewhat speed-favoring on Oaks Friday (as indicated by the pink color-coded Race Rating box in TimeformUS PPs). Furthermore, the early pace never developed, as they all let Farrell sneak away to a clear advantage through a very slow opening quarter mile. That allowed Farrell to hang on for second and prevented Abel Tasman from coming with her typical finish. Mike Smith did not abuse her in the last sixteenth, and I have to believe she’s going to be move forward this time. Baffert probably would not be shipping her to this race if she weren’t doing well. Furthermore, her Acorn win over this track was one of her most visually impressive wins of a stellar three-year-old season. Pacific Wind feels like her main rival, but I don’t expect her to offer great value as the second choice. The horse that you probably want to upgrade in American Gal’s absence is Unchained Melody. She’s hardly trustworthy, but she may find herself racing on an uncontested lead.
 

Race 4, The Acorn:
MOONSHINE MEMORIES (#1)

I’m hardly against Monomoy Girl, but I do believe she faces some worthy foes this time and I’m not willing to just accept an extremely short price on this favorite. Moonshine Memories was one of the best of her generation last season, reeling off consecutive Grade 1 victories while remaining unbeaten in three starts. She disappointed in the Breeders’ Cup, but her effort in that race was not quite as discouraging as it initially seemed. The rail was not the place to be at Del Mar, and she raced right down in that inside path for her entire trip in a race that featured a strong outside flow. It took her a while to return to the races, but she did so last time in a fast-paced Angels Flight at Santa Anita. The quick early tempo of that race forced her to adopt rating tactics, and she actually handled the situation well, sitting behind the leaders before swinging out to make a run in the lane. She and all of the others got enveloped by the late move of Emboldened, but the winner may be a very nice filly. I thought it was a solid starting point for a talented filly, and Simon Callaghan has very strong numbers in a small sample in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 3 for 6 ($6.88 ROI) second off a layoff in Grade 1 dirt races.
 

Race 5, The Brooklyn:
HARD STUDY (#3)

I know that others have run faster speed figures, but this is the “now” horse. Hard Study was an overachiever for much of last season, moving from a maiden claimer to starter allowance company before holding his own in some listed stakes races. He opened up a new set of options when he won the 14-furlong Birdstone at Saratoga last summer, and I’m sure Todd Pletcher has had this race penciled into his schedule ever since then. He hinted that he might have returned as a better horse this year when he won that optional claiming race at Gulfstream and he confirmed that notion last time in his commanding Flat Out victory. I know he was beating weaker company, but I love the way he accomplished that win. Manny Franco appeared to have a handful of horse throughout, and Hard Study responded willingly once finally asked for run in the lane. Horses are usually grinding away at the end of these 12-furlong dirt races, but Hard Study was comparatively sprinting to the wire last time. According to Trakus, he ran his final quarter-mile in a remarkable 23.98 seconds. Some of that was due to the slow early pace, but much of his impressive closing fraction owes to this horse’s superior stamina. I’ve become a fan, and I think he’s going to be awfully tough to hold off in the stretch.
 

Race 6, The Jaipur:
HOLDING GOLD (#8)

Disco Partner has to be considered a leading candidate to win this race for the second year in a row, but he’s not an exciting wagering prospect as the favorite. At first glance, Holding Gold seems like a horse that’s gone off form. However, a closer examination of his recent races reveals that this isn’t actually the case. He’s had a number of valid excuses in his recent races, and is overdue for a clean trip. After pairing up stellar efforts behind Disco Partner and Green Mask last summer, he caught a good track at Parx Racing, which is not his preferred kind of going. He lost to a few of Saturday’s rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, but he actually ran much better than his seventh-place finish indicates. He was racing in heavy traffic for much of the stretch drive and, unlike Disco Partner, didn’t find clear sailing until it was too late. He returned with a win at Fair Grounds that was so much more impressive than the final margin indicates. The pace of that race was exceptionally slow and was set by the eventual runner-up Will Call, a nice horse in his own right. Holding Gold was extremely wide all the way around the far turn, yet somehow still produced a rally that carried him to victory in a race where few others were able to close. They took a shot in Dubai thereafter, but that trip didn’t quite work out for him either, as Javier Castellano tried to send him through a hole that was closing about two furlongs from the wire, losing momentum at a critical juncture. He’s been given time to recover, and now he takes a second crack at the Jaipur. He’s sure to get dismissed as one of the longest prices in the field, but I believe there’s a strong chance he’s still capable of producing a top effort.
 

Race 7, The Woody Stephens:
STILL HAVING FUN (#6) / MADISON’S LUNA (#1)

I am putting very little stock in the Pat Day Mile as a predictor of future results. So many talented horses failed to handle a drenched Churchill Downs surface, the rail may have been very strong for that one race, and the results appeared to be completely random. I’m tossing it from consideration. Therefore, in my mind, Madison’s Luna is undefeated and exiting a breakout performance in the Hutcheson. I loved the way this son of Tapit willingly moved to the lead on the far turn of that race and pulled away through the lane despite racing somewhat greenly. I can see why Phil Bauer is adding blinkers this time, but I am somewhat concerned that the intention is to show speed from the inside post position. Madison’s Luna does not appear to need to be forwardly placed, and I would prefer to see them take back and try their luck stalking in the second flight of runners.

Still Having Fun never got close to Mitole in the Chick Lang, but he nevertheless deserves credit for rallying to be a clear second. Horses were having trouble making up ground throughout the Preakness card at Pimlico, and Still Having Fun was able to pass all but the winner despite the pace of that race being very slow (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures for every split in TimeformUS PPs). If you isolate the one-turn races within his past performances, his overall form looks much more encouraging. I know that he’s been campaigned solely in Maryland against supposedly inferior competition, but a few of those races have been fast – in fact, just as fast as many who will be a fraction of his price. The 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned in the Chick Lang puts him right on par with Kanthaka and Madison’s Luna. Furthermore, he’s one of only a few true closing sprinters in a race loaded with early speed. He’s also been paired with Joel Rosario, a master at timing late moves with horses such as this. Still Having Fun is going to be viewed as a longshot, yet I can’t get past the notion that he’s among the most likely winners given the projected race flow.
 

Race 8, The Just A Game:
LA CORONEL (#8)

A Raving Beauty will be awfully dangerous if she repeats her Beaugay effort. However, she’s unlikely to offer value as the probable favorite. I respect her stablemate Off Limits, who is arguably the most talented miler in the race. However, she may not get enough pace to close into. I want to take a shot against them with La Coronel. I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve never been this filly’s greatest fan. In my opinion, she took advantage of favorable circumstances on a number of occasions last season. She was allowed to set slow paces in both the Sands Point and Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, and took full advantage. However, she hasn’t been nearly as lucky so far this year. On the surface, it appears that her form has tailed off, but I actually think the opposite is true. She ran deceptively well in the Hillsborough against some of the best horses in this division. She could only manage third that day, but may have been closer if she didn’t have to wait for room on the turn and alter course in the stretch. She was game to hang on for fourth in the Jenny Wiley next time out in a race that was totally dominated by closers. Finally, last time she lost all chance at the start, as she broke from the disadvantageous outside post in an 11-horse field. Jose Lezcano tried to get her to rate at the back of the pack, but she was too keen and ended up racing extremely wide around both turns. She’s clearly better than that, and I think she will appreciate getting back to Belmont Park. She showed last year that she possesses the tactical speed to be forwardly placed in her races, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jose Lezcano get aggressive here. I’m not totally convinced that she’s quick enough to fend off the late charges of either Chad Brown filly, but she’s going to be an enticing price in this race and I can envision her working out a great trip from this slot.
 

Race 9, The Metropolitan Handicap:
RANSOM THE MOON (#8)

Mind Your Biscuits is the most likely winner of this race, but the distance is a slight question mark and he’s going to have to work out a trip from off the pace in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of early speed. Most regard Bee Jersey to be his main rival, and I think he’s one that you definitely have to use. Bolt d’Oro probably won’t offer much value, but he is talented and I wouldn’t throw him out. The horse that I want to focus on at what should be a generous price is Ransom the Moon. This California sprinter will attempt to ration out his speed over the one-mile distance. He’s had an interesting career, briefly starting out in Kentucky before moving to Canada to contest longer races on turf and synthetic for the majority of his three- and four-year-old campaigns. Privately purchased prior to the 2017 season, he has transformed while under the care of trainer Phil D’Amato. The new connections immediately recognized his quality and cut him back to sprint distances on dirt. He exploded with a pair of graded stakes wins over last summer. In his two finest performances of 2017, he battled with the talented Danzing Candy through a blazing 7 furlongs in the San Carlos and conquered champion sprinter Roy H in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby. He earned a massive TimeformUS Speed Figure for that San Carlos effort, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the performance came at the farthest distance he’s attempted while in Phil D’Amato’s barn. Ransom the Moon got in a good prep last time and now attempts to tackle the added ground in his second start off the layoff. Based on his prior form in Canada, he probably does possess the stamina to see out the trip. And, if he’s still capable of putting forth performances like those we witnessed last summer, isn’t he just as fast as Mind Your Biscuits? Ransom the Moon is flying under the radar in this Met Mile, but there’s an argument that he should be regarded among the top contenders.
 

Race 10, The Manhattan:
ROBERT BRUCE (#1)

The word was out when he made his U.S. debut, as he was bet down to 8-5 odds despite having never been truly tested in his native Chile. Considering the manner in which the Fort Marcy unfolded, it would have been impossible to win by a large margin. They waltzed through the opening six furlongs and sprinted home. Once Tyler Gaffalione found a seam and got Robert Bruce in gear, he finished fastest of all and appeared to cross the wire with something in reserve. Watching this horse’s races in Chile, it’s clear that he possesses a turn of foot and the rare ability to sustain a move over a long stretch of ground. In many of those wins, it didn’t look like he was going to win by large margins with a furlong to run, but he was able to separate himself from his competition with superior staying power. He handled the nine furlongs of the Fort Marcy, but his Chilean form suggests that more distance may actually be preferred, and this 1 1/4-mile trip seems perfect. Perhaps the scariest thing about this horse is that he’s running this well despite being only 3 years old as a Southern Hemisphere October foal. I think he’s going to take another step forward off his U.S. debut, and he figures to work out a great trip from this advantageous rail post position.
 

Race 11, The Belmont Stakes:
VINO ROSSO (#8)

While I acknowledge that Justify is the most likely winner, there are many ways to lose this demanding race. Betting an odds-on favorite in a situation where the entire field is trying a new distance for the first time is not a great value proposition, so I will be taking a shot against him. As I noted in my analysis for this year’s Kentucky Derby, Vino Rosso was never going to be well suited to that race. The Derby typically features an extremely fast early pace and a crowded field of 20 runners, two factors that are incongruous with a notoriously laid-back horse who prefers to run outside of rivals during his races. While John Velazquez was able to get Vino Rosso to the outside at Churchill Downs, in doing so he was forced to race five or six paths off the rail around both turns. Vino Rosso is once again drawn in an outside slot for this race, but Belmont’s large main oval with its more gradual turns should allow him to get into a steady rhythm, something that he was never able to do last time.

Vino Rosso’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, has a knack for getting horses to rebound in the Belmont Stakes. In the 12 editions contested since 2006, Pletcher has sent out either the first or second place finisher on 8 occasions, winning it three times – a remarkable feat in a notoriously demanding race. Vino Rosso seems tailor-made for this 12-furlong test and has a similar profile to Pletcher’s prior Belmont winners, Palace Malice and Tapwrit, who both finished off the board in Kentucky. No other horse in this brings a pedigree with so many stamina influences. His sire Curlin nearly won this race, and his dam is a half-sister to Commissioner, who was also narrowly beaten in the Belmont Stakes. Vino Rosso ran a competitive speed figure when he won New York’s Wood Memorial two back, and he has shown the ability to sit closer to the pace than a closer like Hofburg. If Vino Rosso puts forth his best effort, I believe he has a strong chance to upset Justify’s Triple Crown bid, and he figures to offer better value than Hofburg.