by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 3: 8 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 11 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 4 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 6: 10 - 4 - 9 - 11
Race 7: 4 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 1 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 9: 2 - 15 - 11 - 4
RACE 2: WARRENS VENGEANCE (#3)
The Pace Projector is predicting that Big Brown Cat will be clearly in front through the early stages in a situation favorable to the leader. She’s the only confirmed front-runner in this field and has used those tactics en route to two consecutive victories. She is stepping up to face a slightly tougher group this time, but she owns the best last-out speed figure in the field and is clearly the one to beat. I’m taking a shot against her with Warrens Vengeance. This filly ran better than it seems in her first start off the claim for Linda Rice last time. That starter allowance field was not particularly tough for the level, but I thought she ran quite well to be second. Apprentice rider Benjamin Hernandez seemed intent on rating this filly despite the fact that she broke very sharply. The early pace was fairly moderate, yet Hernandez gave up valuable position as he allowed Warrens Vengeance to get shuffled back on the turn. She finished up decently to be second once clear in the lane. Now she gets a positive rider switch to Manny Franco, and she should find herself in a chasing position just behind Big Brown Cat early. I believe she can get the jump on closers like Saratoga Style and Mary’s Girl.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,7
RACE 5: BRASS RING (#4)
Avalina is clearly the horse to beat in this starter optional-claiming event. She dazzled in her debut with a 13-length triumph in the slop and validated that performance by nearly staying undefeated in her second start at today’s level. She is unlikely to be affected by rain in the forecast for Friday, and her pair of speed figures clearly makes her the horse to beat. The only drawback is the price since she figures to be a prohibitive favorite. Some may consider Big Bennys Tribute to be her main rival, but I’m somewhat skeptical of this filly. She was beating a weak field in her debut, and the speed figures seem unreasonably high. I prefer some alternatives with more experience. Excess Capacity has a right to do better as she drops in class out of the Buster Stakes. She ran well to beat a decent maiden field two back and may appreciate the slight cutback in distance. I’m using her, but my top selection is Brass Ring. It took this filly a while to figure things out, but her last effort suggests that she belongs among the top contenders in this field. Coming off a three-month layoff and wearing blinkers for the first time, she carved out swift fractions, fending off a heavily favored Jason Servis runner before getting run down by the classy winner. Even when she was passed in the lane, she continued to battle on gamely to the wire. Her 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance is tied with Avalina’s best number, and she’s going to be a much more enticing price.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 6,7,8
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 3,5,6,7
RACE 8: BAVARO (#1)
Pat On the Back is a deserving favorite as he returns from the layoff. He won a pair of statebred stakes last year and even gave a solid account of himself in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile at season’s end. This versatile son of Congrats is capable of handling sprint distances, as he displayed in last year’s Affirmed Success, but he’s meeting a tough field in this first start off the bench. I respect his talent and will certainly use him defensively, but this may be the right time to take a shot against him. His main rival is Syndergaard, who was unlucky to lose a couple of photo finishes to Honor Up this winter. Despite coming out on the wrong end of those decisions, he earned speed figures that put him on par with the favorite. I won’t hold his Tom Fool performance against him since he was ridden too aggressively in the early stages. He’s drawn a good post position for this race and should be a threat from close range. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Bavaro. This speedy son of Freud has always had serious ability, but his trainers have struggled to turn him into a top-class performer. He seemed to finally put it all together this winter, and Linda Rice justifiably moved him up into stakes company in the Hollie Hughes off a pair of claiming wins. Not only did he win that race, he did so in remarkable fashion. Need-the-lead types like Bavaro are typically doomed when they break slowly, yet somehow this gray horse overcame his poor start and beat four of today’s rivals. His 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance is among the best numbers in this field. He actually ran pretty well in the Tom Fool in his next start before falling apart in the Caixa Eletronica. I won’t hold that effort against him since seven furlongs is too far and he got the wrong ride that day. This time, Rajiv Maragh just has to send Bavaro from the rail, and I won’t be surprised if he takes them all the way at a square price.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6,8
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 2,4,6
RACE 9: PASSPORTTOVICTORY (#2)
This race has been transferred to dirt, but my top selection is not changing. Passporttovictory has subtly improved throughout the winter under the care of Jeremiah Englehart. While I didn’t mind the switch to turf, she clearly handles dirt without any issues. She does not always run her best races over sloppy dirt tracks, but put forth solid efforts when she encountered fast going in December and April. Moisture in the surface this afternoon is a concern, but I'm hoping she can handle it this time. That most recent effort was much better than it appears, as she got shuffled back in the early going and made an eye-catching late run in a race that did not set up for closers. After scratches, her main rival appears to be the MTO Wadadli Princess. This filly is stepping up to meet older horses for the first time after closing to be second in a pair of 3-year-old stakes. I thought she got a very good trip and ride from Jose Lezcano last time in a race where others had some trouble, but she nevertheless ran quite well. My only reservation with this filly is her lack of early speed, which could be a hindrance in a dirt race that seems to lake pace. Questeq could find herself on the early lead, and that advantage gives her a chance. However, she’s not exactly a winning type at just 3-for-34 lifetime.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,11,15