by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   7 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 5:   1 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 10 - 7
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 8:   1 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 9:   9 - 8 - 2 - 12

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: CONNIE A (#3)
My Girl Annie steps into open company for the first time as she makes her first start against winners. She had to be dropped in for a tag to break her maiden last time, and did so against a woefully weak group. She’s earned speed figures that make her a win candidate here, but I don’t want to bet her at a short price. Paula’s Pistol comes into this race off a fast second-place finish at this level, and if she were to repeat that effort, she would likely win. However, that race came nearly 3 months ago. I want to see her do it again before supporting her. I’m taking a shot against these fillies with Connie A. I know that her recent form looks disappointing, but she’s had excuses in those races. She raced very wide against a good rail on Jan. 27 while racing a field that was just too tough for her. Then last time, she was again racing off the rail on a day that featured an intense inside bias, exaggerating the margin of defeat. She’s kept at the right level, and the prospect of a wet track may enhance her chances, since her only win came over a sloppy, sealed track.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,7

 

RACE 4: SUMMER SQUEEZE (#4)
Pana Elianne is clearly the horse to beat. Her new trainer, Dermot Magner, has been an assistant to trainer Chad Brown, and it appears that this is his first starter. This filly ran well enough at this level last season and does not face the toughest assignment in her return to New York. The two logical alternatives are not particularly appealing. First-time starter Geranium has plenty of turf pedigree, but it’s not a great sign to see her entered for a tag in her debut, and this barn has been cold in recent weeks. Sardonyx gets a needed drop in class, but it’s not as if her turf races make her a serious threat. I’m looking beyond these fillies and taking a shot with Summer Squeeze. This filly has had no success in her three starts, including one attempt on turf. However, she is undoubtedly bred for grass and her only race over it may not be as bad as it seems. In that Dec. 2 turf sprint, she showed brief speed in the early going before quickly plummeting through the pack. She was well out of contention by the time the field entered the stretch, racing greenly. However, once Junior Alvarado set her down and gave her a few taps with the whip, she started running. Looking at Trakus figures, she actually ran the fastest final eighth of any horse in the field (11.74 seconds), and was quickly passing horses at the wire and on the gallop out. It’s pretty clear that this filly wants to get back on turf, and I think you need to forgive her for that initial start.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3

 

RACE 7: WILBURNMONEY (#2)
This is one of the most competitive races of the day, as each runner has a reasonable chance to win. Among those at shorter prices, Sandy Belle and Wilburnmoney appear to be most dangerous. The former possesses ample early speed in a race that does not feature much of that. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runner, and that gives her an advantage. Wilburnmoney ran some fast speed figures on occasion last year and was often hindered by poor trips or adverse circumstances in the races in which she underperformed. She appeared to get back on track with her return effort against open company last time. This is an easier spot than that one and she figures to work out a decent stalking trip. With the likely scratch of Silly Sister, who was entered back on Sunday, Wilburnmoney becomes my top pick, and I'll primarily use her with Sandy Belle, recent allowance winner Sugarille, and Mizzen Max, who also possesses speed. The horse that I'm somewhat against at a short price is Playinwiththeboys, who appeared to improve when stretched out in distance and drew a difficult rail post position for this race.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6

 

RACE 8: ROMAN APPROVAL (#1)
Rocketry is likely to go off at a short price again following a fairly obvious troubled trip in his last start at Gulfstream. While it’s unclear how much closer he would have finished that day, he was clearly hindered. Now he’s getting back to New York, and is again stretching out to a longer distance. Anything shorter than 10 furlongs is probably a bit shy of his best trip, so this added ground should allow him to get back to his better efforts. He’s the horse to beat, but he does face some significant rivals, including two from the Mike Maker barn. St. Louie has arguably run the best recent turf races of anyone in this field, but he’s coming into this race off a five-month layoff. Mike Maker has very good numbers off breaks like this, but it’s not as if you’re going to get a particularly enticing price on this gelding. I’m actually more interested in Maker’s other entrant, Roman Approval. His recent form is concerning, but he ran all of those races for Tom Morley. Some horses just click with certain trainers, and Roman Approval had previously run exceptionally well for Mike Maker. I think it’s a great sign that he’s claimed back by these connections and immediately stepped up in class. Furthermore, there’s very little speed signed on for this race, and Roman Approval has successfully gone wire to wire on this Belmont course in the past.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,3,5

 

RACE 9: CAITRIONA (#9)
Dream Passage has consistently run the fastest races among her competitors, and this 7-furlong distance seems to be ideal for her. Her first race back from the layoff last year was actually quite good, so there’s reason to believe that she can fire fresh once again. I’m certainly not against her, but there are other options to consider in this intriguing maiden race. Among the top challengers are those with prior turf experience. Kreesie ran well last November and draws Irad Ortiz for her return. Out of Orbit should appreciate a cutback in distance after finding two turns to be a bit too far in her grass debut. Ailish is coming out of a weaker race last fall, but ran a bit better than it seems considering her wide trip. I’ll use them as backups, but there are some first time turfers to consider. The obvious one is Exceed the Goal, whose pedigree is full of turf influences. She was running late in her dirt debut a few weeks ago and should appreciate this switch to grass. I’m certainly using her, but my top pick is Caitriona, who may fly under the radar in this race. This filly actually has plenty of turf pedigree. She’s by 13% turf sire Munnings, and is out of a dam that handled turf despite never winning a race. However, the second generation of her female family is full of grass influences. Her second dam, Irish Actress, was a multiple turf stakes winner during her career and has been a solid grass producer. She produced Bella Attrica, a full sister to Caitriona’s dam, who won over $200,000 while racing primarily on turf. Caitriona’s return last time was not as bad as it seems and she showed some ability as a two-year-old. She should offer value in this competitive spot.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,6,8,12