by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 10 - 2 - 1 - 9
Race 6: 11 - 9 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 6 - 1A - 2
Race 8: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 2 - 5 - 7 - 1
(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)
RACE 1: SHADOLAMO (#3)
The Linda Rice entry figures to attract plenty of attention in this Friday opener. The stronger half appears to be #1 Charge Account, but I have some reservations about this mare. Her form since returning from the layoff this winter doesn’t seem too alarming at first glance. However, I don’t think she’s run particularly well in each of her starts this winter. She was riding a gold rail in her return on Jan. 23, and still faded badly in a race that isn’t nearly as strong as the speed figure indicates. Then last time she had little excuse to lose as the 3-2 favorite, unable to reel in the longshot leader while getting passed by closers late. I don’t like that she’s been off for two months since the claim, and Linda Rice’s go-to rider Jose Lezcano lands on the other half of this entry, #1A Foxtail. Much was made of Lezcano’s ride on Foxtail last time, and perhaps she should have won that day. Yet it doesn’t meaningfully change the fact that her overall form is inconsistent. I think there are much more appealing options. I view #4 Chaysenbryn as the horse to beat. This open $25k claimer is tougher than the conditioned race she won last time, but she earned a solid 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure, drawing off impressively late. She’s clearly relished the stretch-out to a mile in recent starts, and it was encouraging to see her display improved tactical speed last time. Yet there are additional contenders to consider at even bigger prices. My top pick is #3 Shadolamo. Her form may look somewhat inconsistent, but she’s been running against tougher fields in her last three starts. She was justifiably a longshot in her attempts at the NY-bred N2X level, and she didn’t run that badly against starter stakes foes in the Videogenic two back. The last time she tried an open $25k claimer, she was a 54-1 winner over today’s favorite Charge Account. She showed excellent speed that day, in contrast to last time when her jockey didn’t really persevere. I’m hoping she gets a more aggressive ride from Jackie Davis this time and think she’s a threat on the class drop. I would also use #5 Gringotts, who actually finished ahead of Shadolamo in that Apr. 8 optional claimer. This mare has clearly improved as of late and is hardly impossible in her current form as she also drops in class.
WIN: #3 Shadolamo, at 7-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #5 Gringotts, at 7-1 or greater
USE: 4
RACE 2: HOLIDAY JAZZ (#4)
Two 3-year-old fillies will meet their elders for the first time in this NY-bred allowance, and they’re arguably the two runners to beat. #6 Stone Creator figures to go favored as she drops out of a pair of stakes tries. She was second-best to heavy favorite Yo Cuz on both of those occasions. I thought she ran pretty well two back when chasing that rival gamely, but she wasn’t as effective in the East View last time when nearly getting caught for second. Stone Creator was somewhat hindered by a slow start that day, but she got into good position thereafter and lacked finish. This isn’t the toughest N1X allowance field and she appears to fit well, but I’m not inclined to take a very short price on her. I have similar feelings about #2 Preposterous, who broke her maiden in an off-the-turf affair last year. She did earn a reasonably strong speed figure for that race, and the horses who finished behind her have since validated that form in subsequent dirt starts. Saffie Joseph has good numbers off layoffs, going 14 for 49 (29%, $2.01 ROI) off layoffs of 120-240 days on dirt over the past 5 years. She’s registered some fast workout times recently, but it doesn’t look like she’s grown up that much during the time away. I’m going in a different direction with another lightly raced option. #4 Holiday Jazz is a year older than the two aforementioned rivals, but she’s still pretty light on experience. Her former connections basically gave her away for $25k last time, but the drop in class may have been premature as she ran away from that field to win impressively by 9 lengths. The 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure is modest, but she has a right to do better going out for a new barn. David Duggan is 5 for 22 (23%, $3.26 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years. This filly is bred to stretch out, being out of well-bred dam who is a half-sister to turf marathoner Campanologist. It’s also interesting that Kendrick Carmouche lands here after riding Stone Creator in all of her prior starts.
WIN: #4 Holiday Jazz, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4: TREAT STREET (#5)
Possible favorite #3 Shamalamadingdong took plenty of money to get bet down to 5-2 in her only turf start last year and just lacked some late punch. The pace was honest, giving her every chance, but winner Runaway Rumour ran right past her in the lane. It was a solid field, considering the winner went on to win a stakes on the turf, so I don’t want to get too down on her performance, especially considering today’s competition. She was switched into the Christophe Clement barn last summer, and subsequently went back to dirt with mixed results. Now she returns from a break, and Clement is 13 for 54 (24%, $1.71 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf sprints over the past 5 years. She’s obviously the most reliable option with prior turf form, but there are some others to consider. #2 Queen of Lies offers some appeal as she tries this surface for the first time. This 4-year-old filly was a modest $2,000 weanling purchase and took a while to reach the races. She was dismissed at 28-1 in her synthetic debut going long, and had some early trouble that day. She got very rank heading into the clubhouse turn and was forced to steady off heels, leaving little left for the stretch drive. She was soundly beaten, but was facing a pretty good field as three runners from that affair have come back to win with strong speed figures. Her sire was a pure turf sprinter in Europe, so the turnback makes sense. I’m going in a different direction with one of the first time starters. #5 Treat Street doesn’t have as much obvious turf pedigree as some others in here, but I think there are some reasons to like her. She sold for $70k as a 2-year-old after working a furlong in 10 2/5 at Fasig-Tipton Timonium last year. Candy Ride is a 12% debut sire and a 13% turf sprint sire. Mark Hennig is 1 for 18 (6%) with first time starters in turf sprints, and the lone winner went off at 64-1. Four other horses in that sample hit the board at generous odds, so Hennig can get one ready to fire on debut. This filly had worked in promising fashion last summer before going to the sidelines. She appears to have some ability, and it’s a good sign that Javier Castellano takes the mount for this barn.
WIN: #5 Treat Street, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2,3,4
RACE 6: CANDY MONET (#11)
I suppose #3 Runaway Rockette will take some money in this race by default, since she does own a set of speed figures that make her a contender at this level. However, she’s turning back to a sprint distance at which she’s never been effective. Her best turf efforts have come in longer races, and she’s a filly who clearly has quite a bit of hang in her. She got a great setup two back at Gulfstream and just followed the winner home without really threatening. She doesn’t seem like the most genuine sort, and her lack of early speed is a concern as she shortens up. #10 Freedomofthepress could also take some money, but I have serious reservations about her. She did win sprinting two back, but she was pretty disappointing in her return from the layoff last time, her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. She’s a filly who has struggled to finish races in the past, and she showed that same tendency last time. #9 Half Birthday is a little more appealing just for the fact that you know she’s in good form right now. She beat a weaker field breaking her maiden at Aqueduct just 7 days ago, but she did so in pretty convincing fashion. I think it’s smart of Tom Morley and the connections to strike while the iron is hot, and she’s a contender once again coming back on short rest. Though, I prefer another for my top pick. #11 Candy Monet is getting back on her preferred surface. While she hasn’t yet won on turf, she ran the two best races of her career on this surface late last year. She just missed against a decent maiden claiming field going this distance in September before trying much tougher allowance company. She raced on dirt through the winter, but that just means that she’ll be fit for this return to grass. I also like the addition of blinkers for a filly who has been a little quirky in the past. I would also use #4 Write This Down, but she's totally dependent on pace and finished behind Candy Monet when they met in allowance company late last year.
WIN: #11 Candy Monet, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 4,9
RACE 8: FLASHNDYNAMITE (#3)
#1 Love and Love is probably the horse to beat as she seeks to make it two in a row since returning from the layoff to launch her 6-year-old campaign. She finally broke through her N1X allowance condition off the bench last time, earning a solid 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, now the waters get a bit deeper, and she’s being asked to cut back to 7 furlongs. This trip has been a bit short for her in the past, and she’s facing some rivals who are already proven at this class level. #2 Customerexperience is another who figures to attract support. I do like the slight turnback for her, since a mile is her absolute upper limit. However, I’m not sure that she really fits here from a class standpoint. She beat much weaker when she earned her top speed figure this winter on Jan. 23 and that race has proven to be of dubious quality in retrospect. Her subsequent form is merely mediocre and doesn’t exactly make her formidable here. I don’t see that much true speed in this field, so I’m going with #3 Flashndynamite. This 7-year-old doesn’t need to be in front, but I do hope that Kendrick Carmouche gives her an aggressive ride. She’s generally faced tougher company at this level, as was the case when she ran into the classy Make Mischief last time. The rail was the place to be on April 14, and this mare chased outside the entire way. She rarely takes much money due to the out of town connections. Yet her overall form on the NYRA circuit has been solid, and I think this race came up on the soft side. I also don’t mind the slight tunback in distance, since she’s been successful sprinting in the past.
WIN: #3 Flashndynamite, at 7-2 or greater