by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 2: 10 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 4: 1 - 10 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 7 - 11 - 1 - 8
Race 6: 5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 2 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 8: 8 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 9: 9 - 5 - 3 - 7
RACE 3: ZOOMER (#6)
This Flat Out features the 7-year-old debut of the longwinded Rocketry. This likable marathoner finally got back to the winner’s circle following a long drought in the G2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance going 13 furlongs last year at Keeneland. He made his typical run from well back to get up over a decent field for a dirt marathon. However, that was the end of his campaign, and he is a horse who sometimes needs a start coming off a layoff. I’m using him here since he’s is proven in these races, but I wouldn’t want to take a short price. Musical Heart and Air Attack also figure to attract support after filling out the exacta in the Stud Muffin starter stakes at Aqueduct. They handled this 11-furlong distance that day but now they’re stepping up to face tougher company. Air Attack was coming back just 15 days after a breakout performance for Rob Atras, and I wonder if he’ll still be as sharp a month later. Musical Heart is still with Atras and has done well for this barn despite not winning since his most recent claim. This distance is probably pushing him to his limit but he’s a contender nonetheless. I’m interested in new face Zoomer. This horse had been campaigned as a sprinter for much of his career before they took a shot stretching him out last winter at Aqueduct. Since then he’s run some of the best races of his career, which perhaps shouldn’t come as a shock. He’s bred to run all day, being by Curlin out of an A. P. Indy dam that has produced other route-oriented runners. He put forth a huge effort to win going a mile in the slop last time for Rob Atras despite the fact that he hadn’t shown an affinity for wet tracks in the past. Now he’s back with former trainer Bob Klesaris and he’s stretching out to the longest distance of his career. There are questions to be sure, but he’s in great form and these longer races may be where he’s meant to excel.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7
RACE 5: OUT FIRST (#7)
Kept Waiting is a logical fit in this race as she returns from California and moves back into New York-bred company. She put in a decent effort in her lone start out west, staying on at one pace to get third in a starter allowance affair. That was going a two-turn mile, which is probably a little farther than her best distance. She seemed to appreciate one-turn races last year, so turning back to 7 furlongs seems like a smart move. She’s apparently training well for her return and figures to be tough with her good effort. She will have to defeat Big Time Lady, who improved quite a bit at the end of her 2-year-old season. Her maiden victory was merely ordinary, but she took a big step forward in the Tepin stakes after that, hanging on for third after setting the pace. While the winner of that race, Lovestruck, seems like a nice filly, I’m not sure there was a ton of quality behind the top two in that late November stakes. She makes sense as she returns from the layoff and arguably has more upside than Kept Waiting. I’m using both, but I’m most interested in a first time turfer. Out First makes her grass debut for trainer James Ryerson after competing on dirt throughout the winter at Aqueduct. Notably, her best performance to date has come over a sloppy, sealed track, so this move to turf could suit her. Outwork has had some initial success as a turf sire, and her dam was best on turf despite not winning. Going deeper into her female family, her second dam was a decent turf performer, so there’s definitely pedigree for her to take to this surface.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,8,11
RACE 6: A BIT O’IRISH SASS (#5)
Possible favorite Irresistible Girl followed up a fourth-place finish in her debut with a third, then a 2nd, so she’s seemingly ripe to get that maiden diploma this time. While her speed figures look relatively consistent, her performances have evolved more than the numbers indicate. She was never really a threat in her debut, and actually improved in that Feb. 14 affair, as she chased wide against a rail bias before getting overtaken late. She was perhaps a little disappointing to lose as the favorite last time, but was flattered when winner Summer Brew returned to beat N1X foes last week. I’m using her prominently, but I’m more interested in another player at a bigger price. A Bit O’Irish Sass returns from a layoff as she makes her 3-year-old debut for Rick Schosberg. She was off to a mildly tardy start in her debut last September but made good progress thereafter, closing best of all through the lane to be fourth despite staying on her wrong lead. She figured to step forward second time out, and she did improve her result. She got more involved in the early going, but couldn’t produce that same finishing kick in the slop. Her speed figure for that race was a mediocre 79, but that may have been a stronger race than it appears, as all of the horses who have run back improved their figures next time out. One of those was winner Vacay, who ran 9 points faster winning a stakes in her next start. This filly should be right there with routine improvement. The other horse that I would consider prominently is first time starter Cali Fitz. This daughter of California Chrome is out of a Grade 3-placed dam and is a half-sister to a sprint winner. The works look solid enough, and Jorge Abreu is an exceptional 11 for 27 (41%, $4.34 ROI) with first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,6,7
Trifecta: 5 with 3,6 with 1,3,6,7,8
RACE 7: CREED (#2)
Highest Honors is an imposing presence in this allowance affair as he makes his 5-year-old debut after missing the entire 2020 racing season. He looked like he could be any kind as a 3-year-old after collecting his second straight victory in the 2019 Curlin, beating a pair of talented rivals in Endorsed and Looking At Bikinis. He was bet down to 13-1 in a wide open edition of the Travers and didn’t fare badly at all, splitting the field in sixth with a 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, that was the last time we saw him, and now he returns from a 20-month layoff. Chad Brown is 8 for 23 (35%, $2.29 ROI) off layoffs of 360 days or more on dirt over the past 5 years. You can’t dismiss anything from this barn right now, but I also wouldn’t want to take a very short price on this type of horse. Another runner with some class returning from a layoff is Liveyourbeastlife. This colt has been an overachiever right from the start. He won his debut for a tag, and has been ambitiously placed ever since. It originally looked like his connections were mismanaging him, but he eventually rewarded their faith, finishing a game second behind subsequent Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide in the Jim Dandy. I won’t hold the Preakness against him, and now he returns in an appropriate spot for a barn that has been on a tear through early 2021. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is another layoff runner, Creed. This well-bred son of Honor Code looked on his way to the major summer stakes targets last year before his campaign was derailed by injury. Following months of rest, he finally made his return last month at Gulfstream, curiously going 6 furlongs. Unsurprisingly, he was outrun early and only hit his best stride when the race was ending before galloping out well in front. It all had the feel of a tune-up for a horse who clearly wants to go longer. Now he’s back at the right distance for the notoriously patient Shug McGaughey. He needs to produce the best effort of his career to win here, but that’s hardly out of the question for a runner with such apparent upside.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,8
Trifecta: 2,8 with 2,8 with 1,3,6
RACE 9: SWEET MELANIA (#9)
I’ll be interested to see how the public bets this race, because I wouldn’t want to accept too short a price on my pick, though I do believe she’s the horse to beat. Sweet Melania is the type of runner I would typically look to avoid, especially as a favorite. She’s done her best work going two turns on turf and now she’s attempting to translate that route success into a turf sprint. The move doesn’t work that often, but I actually think she’s a perfect candidate for a turnback. She possesses plenty of tactical speed and she has a habit of getting leg weary in the last furlong of her route races beyond a mile. She handled one turn when she impressively won the Wonder Again last summer, and she has a pedigree that suggests shorter distances should suit her. She’s by 15% turf sprint sire American Pharoah out of a dam who was a precocious sprinter early in her career. She’s also been successful coming from off the pace, so I’m not worried about her getting a little outrun in the early stages. She’s my top pick, but I respect the other fillies likely to attract support here. Lady Lawyer obviously needs to rebound from a poor effort last time, but I think sprinting is a more natural fit for her. She’s training well for her return and this barn has been sending out nothing but live runners on the turf in New York. I also think She’s My Type is dangerous off the layoff for Christophe Clement. She displayed a nice turn of foot in that Coronation Cup victory last year, and I won’t hold her poor effort at Kentucky Downs against her. I respect both of these alternatives, but I just think Sweet Melania has a bit more upside as she shortens up in distance.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,7
Trifecta: 9 with 3,5 with 1,3,5,7,8,10