by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   8 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   4 - 8 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   10 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 7:   3 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   6 - 5 - 7 - 3

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: ROYAL INHERITANCE (#3)
Kreesie appears to be the class of the field off her stakes win in late June. While that came against straight 3-year-olds, it’s not as if she was facing a particularly soft field that day in comparison to this test against older rivals. Runner-up Goodbye Brockley is an improving filly, and third-place finisher Mentality has shown her class against open stakes company. That said, Kreesie did get a great setup that day as the early pace was fast and she was able to make a sustained, unencumbered run from the back of the pack. Furthermore, she appeared to really improve going seven furlongs recently, so the cutback to three-quarters of a mile is a minor concern. I’m taking a shot against her with Royal Inheritance, who gets some needed class relief. She was just facing significantly tougher company in her only turf start. The top two finishers from that race are simply in a different league than the horses she’s facing this time, and it’s not as if she even performed that badly in that spot. Royal Inheritance outran the swift Okinawa to the lead that day and kicked on well at the head of the stretch before getting closed down by some quality fillies in the last furlong. Based on that effort, she might actually be better on turf than dirt despite not possessing much pedigree for this surface. It’s been a long time since she’s faced straight New York-breds, and I think she’s going to be difficult to reel in.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with ALL

 

RACE 4: SMART AND SASSY (#8)
Smart and Sassy is getting some significant class relief in this race and does not meet any formidable foes. Her main rival, Single Mission, has never run that well in her career and does not necessarily improve with added distance. Silveratta Road is a wild card, but she hasn’t done any running in either of her starts. Smart and Sassy has just faced much tougher New York-bred maidens in her recent starts. Some may be turned off by the fact that Smart and Sassy has already had eight chances to obtain her first win, but she’s actually had excuses in a number of races. She was buried down on the rail behind some tiring runners rounding the far turn in her April 27 return, and then last time, she was steadied out of position approaching the three-eighths pole, effectively losing all chance. Her June 2 performance was actually pretty good and would easily defeat this bunch if she could repeat it here.

Win: 8
Exacta: 8 with 1,3,6,7

 

RACE 6: CHARNLEY RIVER (#10)
I’m not one to go overboard on favorites, but Charnley River just appears to be the right horse in the right spot this time. While he did lose as the 6-5 favorite at this level last time out, a number of factors contributed to that defeat. This horse got a little unlucky last time as he could never quite extricate himself from a position behind the leaders once the field entered the stretch. Manny Franco did the right thing by trying to save ground, but he had to wait until the eighth pole to find a clear path, by which point the top two finishers had already spurted away. Furthermore, that race was contested just prior to Christophe Clement’s barn heating up at this meet. For that reason, I don’t see this trainer switch as a negative. Rather, Robert Falcone Jr. actually has strong numbers off the claim on turf, winning with 3 of 7 such starters ($5.57 ROI) during his training career. Charnley River is versatile enough to run well anywhere between six furlongs and a mile, so he should be perfectly suited to this seven-furlong distance. An interesting alternative to consider at a more enticing price is La Maquina Gris. While he’s never won turf, all of those starts came around two turns. On dirt, he’s been more proficient at sprint distances, so he’s certainly earned a right to try sprinting on this surface.

Win: 10
Exacta: 10 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 2,10 with 2,10 with 3,4,6,7

 

RACE 7: SPA TREATMENT (#3)
Two of the main contenders in this race are shipping in from Monmouth Park. Summer Sweet put in a solid effort against open allowance foes last time out and now makes her first start against New York-breds for Mike Stidham. While her prior New York form is pretty discouraging, it does appear that she has significantly improved as a 4-year-old for this barn, and I think she has to be taken seriously. Wantagh Queen exits a win at the Jersey Shore. While that did come against weaker company, this mare has proven that she can compete at this class level in the past, and she is the only multiple turf winner in the field. It’s also worth noting that Mike Dini’s horses have been performing very well at this meet. I’m using both of these contenders, but I’m interested in a higher-priced alternative. Spa Treatment really intrigues me on the switch back to turf. Going back to last year, she had run her best races sprinting on grass and presented herself as a horse with a preference for this surface. However, all of that changed last winter when Tom Albertrani added blinkers, which allowed her to run two of the best races of her career on dirt. She didn’t handle a sloppy track last time, but I’m not going to hold that against her since she’s never liked a wet dirt surface. I tend to think that she has improved simply due to the addition of blinkers rather than the switch to dirt, and I like that her connections are giving her another shot on grass. Others to consider include Citizen Matzo, who has plenty of pedigree to move up on this surface, and Forever Daisy, who gets a significant rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,6