PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   10 - 5 - 1 - 13
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   8 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 5:   10 - 1 - 13 - 5
Race 6:   11 - 3 - 10 - 9
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 9 - 7
Race 8:   5 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 9:   6 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 10:   4 - 1 - 16 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: FOREIGN AFFAIR (#10)
Assuming this race stays on turf, Into Summer is probably the horse to beat after just getting nailed at the wire going two turns last time. She should appreciate the turnback in distance, but she finds herself in a deep and competitive race. The other runner likely to attract support is Equalityforall, who goes out for Linda Rice, a 100-rated trainer with second-time starters. I respect both of those runners, but I’m going to take a shot with longshot Foreign Affair. She actually ran better than it appears in her lone turf start last summer at Saratoga. The pace of that race was very slow (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), and this horse did well to make up ground in the stretch. Third-place finisher Bellavais, who was also closing that day, has since come back to perform well in stakes. It’s hard to trust runners off long layoffs like this, but I think this filly has some ability.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,5,9,13

RACE 5: SHRINK (#10)
On turf, this is a difficult race to assess since none of the competitors is very talented. Ragazza di Papa will be a deserving favorite off her solid second-place finish last time. The only real knock against her is that she's likely to go off at a very short price in an otherwise-confusing race. Assuming she's an underlay, I want to take a small shot against her with Shrink in her second start back from the layoff. She had a right to need her return last time, and she didn't even run badly that day. She was hustled to set a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) and simply got tired late. I'm thinking that she'll get a slightly more conservative ride this time.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,13

RACE 9: KHARAFA (#6)
Christophe Clement was reportedly looking for some class relief for Blacktype, but he doesn't find it here as this race came up as tough as a minor stakes. He figures to face a challenge from Inspector Lynley, who finished behind him in this spring’s Maker’s 46 Mile, albeit with a tough trip. This Shug McGaughey trainee has shown the ability to take on a horse like Blacktype, but he struggles with consistency. They make a formidable pair, but I'm going to try to beat them both with Kharafa. This New York-bred has been successful against open company before, and he has run some of his best races at Belmont Park. I know that his two starts to kick off this season might suggest that he's gone off form, but I think you can make excuses for both of those races. Seven furlongs is a bit short for him, and last time, he just worked out an uncomfortable trip as Paco Lopez sent him forward to make a prolonged, wide advance toward the leaders without cover. He doesn’t mind a little give in the ground, which he likely will encounter here.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Box: 1,3,6
Trifecta Box: 1,3,6

RACE 10: ZENNA (#4)
I don't completely trust anyone in this race, so I'm reticent to take short prices on either of the favorites, Song for the Soul and Sapporo. The former is making her first start back from a lengthy layoff after stopping badly in her most recent start last November. The latter seems more trustworthy at first glance, but she's faced relatively weak fields and has now been a vet scratch twice since her last race. The only viable alternative I can find is Zenna, whose dirt races as a 2-year-old were actually decent, all against tougher company. She was setting a fast pace in her return in June, and she's probably just not a turf horse, so I can excuse her for getting tired that day. Carlos Martin, who gets just a 35 Trainer Rating off layoffs, gets an 81 Trainer Rating in the second start off a layoff.

Win: 4