PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 9 - 11 - 4
Race 7:   2 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 9 - 1 - 8 (Dirt: 11 - 5 - 8 - 10)
Race 9:   8 - 7 - 5 - 3 (Dirt: 13 - 12 - 3 - 11)

PLAYS

RACE 4: BEATTHATFLEW (#7)
Tapalist could go off favored here as he makes his NYRA debut off the claim for Robertino Diodoro. This barn hasn’t had too many starters in New York over the past year or so, but he does have an excellent record of improving horses off the claim at other circuits. This colt did put forth a strong performance two back when he won impressively for the $10k tag at Oaklawn. He couldn’t handle a step up in class last time, but that was probably a tougher field than the one he meets here. If he improves at all he’s going to be tough for this field to handle. However, there are questions about him and others to consider. I’m not a big fan of Pier Forty, who just seems to have gone the wrong way of late, and Beach Front seems like a dubious candidate to get a mile. Therefore, I’m going in a different direction with Beatthatflew. He wasn’t defeating much of a field when he won his N2L condition two back, but he drew off impressively through the lane and earned a respectable speed figure for the level. Some may dismiss him due to the fact that he was well beaten in his first start for the Joe Parker barn last time, but he was badly overmatched against allowance company. Despite the stiff competition, he was running on late in that race, confirming that he has taken a step forward since the winter. Now he’s back at the right level, and he ran the best race of his career over a sloppy, sealed track, which he could encounter again.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,6

RACE 6: CALI FITZ (#7)
With this race coming off the turf, Raffinity figures to go off as the public choice once again despite disappointing as the 2-5 favorite last time. Perhaps the turnback to sprinting didn't agree with her, but she had run competitively going short at the maiden claiming level in the past. She'd obviously be tough to beat if she ran back to her May 21 performance, but she had everything go her way that day over a fast track. Among the MTO entrants, I actually prefer A Bit o'Irish Sass, who finished behind Raffinity last time out. She proved that she could handle the distance that day, and I think she's been developing at a steady rate, whereas Raffinity may be heading in the wrong direction. Yet I’m most interested in one of the horses entered for turf. Cali Fitz stretches out in her second start after finishing well back in her debut. This filly was extremely green that day as she reacted badly to racing in tight quarters on the backstretch, climbing while taking herself out of the race. She was outrun for much of the way but was running on at the end, as if more distance won’t be an issue. She had some turf pedigree, but I'm sure the connections aren't upset to see this race get transferred to the dirt. I expect her to have a bit more to offer provided that she can break cleanly and get a more forward position this time.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,9,11