by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 2:   4 - 9 - 2 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 7:   12 - 4 - 10 - 5
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 9:   10 - 3 - 14 - 1

PLAYS

 
RACE 6: PALLAS ATHENE (#1)
Romantic Pursuit is the horse to beat off the strength of her 2-length loss to graded stakes-placed Varenka last time while well clear of the rest. She benefited from racing close up to a slow pace that day, but her tactical speed should be an asset once again as she stretches out. One rival who has no stamina concerns is Monhegan, the lone 4-year-old in this field. She stayed on well going 11 furlongs in late May, and that was a loaded field for the level. While she doesn’t possess a great turn of foot, she has enough tactical speed for her grinding style to be effective. Yet I’m also interested in some lightly-raced runners. Bacchanalia didn’t attract much support in her Spa debut as a 2-year-old. She lagged well back in the early going while saving ground on the turns. She was still nearly last at the top of the stretch, yet did well weave through traffic, eventually getting up for third. Brown does well with these types and she’s certainly bred to stretch out. I’m using all of these, but my to pick is Pallas Athene. This filly has failed to make much of an impact in either start, but one of those was on dirt and the other was her career debut. That May 11 affair featured an extremely slow pace and all except winner Varenka struggled to make up ground. This filly is obviously a turf horse and is likely one that needs more than 1 1/16 miles to excel. Her Galileo dam is a full-sister to Vita Nova, who was 2nd in the G2 Lancashire Oaks over 12 furlongs, so she is likely to take a step forward going this distance.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,7,8,10
 

RACE 7: SKY FULL OF STARS (#12)
Following the scratch of Gaining, as well as a number of others who will instead compete in the Robert Dick Memorial at Delaware, this race has changed considerably. Sempter Sententiae should now go off as one of the favorites, and she is as solid as they come. She always seems to show up with a top effort, but she’s starting to collect a few too many minor awards. She was obviously no match for that formidable Chad Brown duo last time and the stretch-out will help her, but I’m just not sure I trust her to win. Scottish Jig also figures to get some attention in her second U.S. start for Bill Mott. She was visually impressive last time, but she had everything her own way up front and I’m not totally convinced this daughter of Speightstown will relish 1 1/2 miles. I’m using all of these, but my top pick is Sky Full of Stars. This 5-year-old mare had gotten quite good last summer in Germany, taking down a Group 2 event in her final start over there. She seemed to improve on the stretch-out to 12 furlongs and she ran an enterprising race that day, leading throughout while turning away multiple challenges. She never had a chance to use her tactical speed when taken back behind a slow pace in the E. P. Taylor last time, and now she’s been off for a long time since. She appears to be training well for this return, and I could see Jose Ortiz getting aggressive from this outside draw.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,4,5,10
Trifecta: 12 with 4,10 with 2,4,5,10
 

RACE 8: COOKIE DOUGH (#2)
Sue’s Fortune will probably win this race if she runs back to her effort in the Jersey Girl. She took a bold late run at the undefeated Break Even, earning a field-best 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This New York-bred had shown some talent as a juvenile, but that most recent performance suggests that she has taken a massive step forward this year. I’m using her, but she’s going to be a much shorter price this time and she has some legitimate rivals in this Grade 3 event. Royal Charlotte must be respected as she goes for her fourth victory in as many starts. She had to work for that allowance win over next-out winner Bingwa at Keeneland two back, and was far more authoritative against stakes company at Monmouth last time. She got shuffled back in the early going of that race and had to come around the field when making her run. She clearly has ability, but she’s going to take money due to her undefeated record and she needs to run a bit faster to take down this bunch. I respect both of the aforementioned favorites, but my top pick is Cookie Dough. This filly was moderately effective sprinting earlier in her career and did improve when stretched out. Yet, I think she’s actually just taken a step forward from an overall sense since she’s returned as a 3-year-old. She faded badly in the late stages of the Acorn last time, but she was absolutely cooked in that extremely fast pace. She’s fast enough to make the lead here if they don’t go too quickly up front and I think she has the stamina to hold off the two favorites late.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with ALL
 

RACE 9: PRETTY SPECTACULAR (#10)
Horses like Moyne Spun and Molly’s Nighthawk may win this race after finishing second and third, respectively, in a similar spot at this level in early June. However, I’m not a huge fan of either horse and wouldn’t be surprised if one of the many new faces is able to post an upset. I’m also not particularly enthused with Mrs. Orb, who will get bet off superior dirt figures and didn’t show much in lone turf start. I have to bet back Pretty Spectacular in her second turf start. She has the pedigree to handle this surface and she got her first try over it on June 12. She was getting a decent trip through the first half of that race before her rider unwisely committed to riding the rail at a point when the race was starting to fall apart. He tried to get her to squeeze through a hole inside, but the gap closed up just as she was getting to it, and she got completely sawed off in traffic. Robbed of all her momentum, she trudged home a distant 6th. To my eye, Pretty Spectacular was handling the turf prior to that incident. I think she deserves another chance of this surface, especially now that she’s gotten a rider switch to Manny Franco. The stretch-out to a mile is a question mark, but it’s not as if she’s facing a particularly tough field this time either. It's also worth noting that a couple of live also-eligible runners have drawn into the race. Fika put in a decent effort against maiden special weight company as a 2-year-old and has a right to improve, and Big Expense would be very dangerous if able to repeat her last effort. I'll include both.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,3,5,7,13,14