by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 11 - 6
Race 5: 1A - 5 - 4 - 2B
Race 6: 2 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 7: 4 - 10 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 11 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 9: 5 - 8 - 10 - 2
RACE 1: FACT CHECK (#5)
So, who is going to beat Herecomesyourman this time? This Tony Dutrow trainee has arguably run the best recent races but just always finds a way to lose. Javier Castellano committed the cardinal sin with this horse in his most recent start, moving too soon with a horse who needs to make the last move in order to win. I don’t mind him stepping back up in class since he’s run well at this level before, and the slight cutback helps him. He’s just hard to trust. I’m taking the obvious alternative, Fact Check. This son of Yes It’s True has some stamina questions to answer here, but he did win going 7 1/2 furlongs at Gulfstream last winter. Given the massive run-ups at that track, for all we know, the actual distance of that race may have been farther than the distance he’ll have to run in this spot. Fact Check appears to have stepped up his game since returning in Jason Servis’s care this summer. While he couldn’t make a dent on the winner’s advantage at this level last time, that May 25 heat has proven to be a very strong race. The winner, Dirty, returned to win his next start at Laurel by five lengths with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure, while runner-up Axtell returned to win against tougher before trying a Grade 1 race. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and Fact Check figures to work out a great trip either setting the pace or stalking Hoard. The other runner to consider is Zefiro since he actually was running well late last time once in the clear. However, he does need to improve.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,7
RACE 7: HERSH (#4)
Payne is undoubtedly the horse to beat as he returns from a layoff, now in the Chad Brown barn. While his 2-year-old races did not come up exceptionally fast in terms of speed figures, he did face strong competition in those races. The winner of his debut, Quip, would go on to win the Tampa Bay Derby as a 3-year-old. Dream Baby Dream, who ran him down last time, has since placed in a couple of stakes races and was briefly on the Kentucky Derby trail. Payne ran very well within the context of that Nov. 25 race, as he contested the pace four wide on the turn, took command at the head of the stretch, and just failed to sustain his bid as he was cut down in the last sixteenth. A mere repeat of that effort may be good enough to win here, and it’s likely that he’s improved since then. I’m intrigued by first-time starter Hersh. This colt debuts for former Brown assistant Dermot Magner and is likely to go off at a significantly higher price than the aforementioned pair. He is bred to be precocious as a son of Jimmy Creed and worked a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds at the OBS sale as a 2-year-old. While his recent work tab looks pretty nondescript at first glance, I was able to watch his drill two back on June 15 and was impressed. I don’t know if his unraced workmate has any ability, but he completely drowned her as he gobbled up ground coming to the wire under no encouragement. Hersh actually put in the serious part of his drill on the gallop-out, as he visibly lengthened his stride and put away his rival by 15 to 20 lengths by the time they reached the clubhouse turn. I don’t know if this barn cranks them up to win their debuts, but it's apparent that this horse has ability.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6,8,10
Trifecta: 4,10 with 4,10 with 1,3,6,8,9
RACE 8: GET A VALENTINE (#11)
Masked is clearly the horse to beat as he drops out of some tough stakes events into this optional claimer. While he is tackling older horses for the first time, it’s not as if this came up as a particularly strong event. The seven furlong distance of his last race may have been a bit too far for Masked, who set a quick pace before succumbing to some talented rivals. There aren’t too many trainer switches away from Bob Baffert that could be considered lateral moves, but this is one of them, as Brad Cox excels with his turf runners. While I’m not against this horse, he’s probably going to be a very short price, and I think there is one intriguing alternative to consider. Get a Valentine has significantly improved since switching into Joe Sharp’s barn. All of his efforts at Fair Grounds last winter were strong, and he may have run his best race ever last time out at Keeneland. He earned a career-best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure that day after chasing a ridiculously fast early pace. Three horses raced far ahead of the others in the early going. Two of them plummeted to the back of the pack in the stretch, as Get a Valentine was the only one who fought on in a race that totally fell apart. Sharp has outstanding numbers in every category with his turf sprinters and has even had plenty of success with these runners at NYRA tracks. This race looks wide open behind the favorite, and Get a Valentine could get dismissed at a fair price.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 3,6,7
Trifecta: 3,11 with 3,11 with 6,7,9,12
RACE 9: ULTIMATE CAUSE (#5)
This is among the most competitive races on the entire card. The primary players are coming out of a pair of key races. The June 15 starter allowance race in which La Naturel beat Avery Maeve for second was flattered by the subsequent performance of winner Kitten’s Covergirl. Both of these fillies should also appreciate the slight cutback to 6 furlongs, but they are just two ordinary contenders in a very tough spot. Orecchiette outdueled Samara in a stretch-long battle last time, albeit at a slightly weaker class level. While Samara was claimed out of that race by the sharp Mike Maker barn, I think Orecchiette is the more dangerous of the two, given her back class and Jonathan Thomas’s impressive results so far at this meet. I’m using all of these fillies, but there’s a longshot in this race that intrigues me. Typically, you want to avoid horses turning back in distance on the turf. That said, I think Ultimate Cause deserves a chance in a turf sprint. The only time that she competed at this distance was in her debut and she just didn’t seem to be prepared to deliver a competitive effort that day. Since then, she has turned into a decent filly going longer and has proven that she fits at this level. She was claimed in April by Michelle Nevin and gave a decent account of herself at Monmouth despite having to make a run through a tight spot on the rail. Michelle Nevin is not known for her prowess with turf horses, but she has actually compiled a good record in turf sprints over the past two years (9 for 52, $3.27 ROI). However, the most noteworthy thing about this mare is her pedigree, since she is clearly bred to be a turf sprinter. Her dam, Supreme, was best going 5 furlongs on turf, winning or placing in a few stakes races. Furthermore, her younger half-sibling Tillie’s Lily is a talented and still undefeated turf sprinter. I know this is an unorthodox move, but I trust Michelle Nevin’s judgment and believe this horse could fly under the radar in a confusing race.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7,8,10,11