PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 9 - 7 - 8
Race 2:   1 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   1 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 6: 9 - 10 - 12 - 2
Race 7:   3 - 14 - 1A - 13
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   4 - 7 - 6 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: PRIMO PENTIMENTO (#1)
The horse to beat is Professor Snape, who gets back on dirt, his preferred surface, and drops down to a more realistic level. I prefer him to Casigordo, who is also dropping in class. However, he seems to have lost some of his early speed in his recent starts and may be up against it from a pace perspective. I'm going to try to defeat them both with Primo Pentimento. This horse actually ran better than it appears in his return from the layoff last time. He was dueling for the lead through fast early fractions (indicated by red color-coding in PPs) and just got tired late in his first start in over four months. The horse that he was battling in the early stages that day came back to finish a good second recently. Now Primo Pentimento is making his second start off the layoff and the Pace Projector is predicting he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6

RACE 5: JETER (#1)
My main idea in this race is to play against the likely favorite Special Jo. This horse looks formidable at first glance, but I think he's vulnerable here. While he has run some competitive speed figures, most of those races were run out of town against cheaper company. Now he's making his first start off the claim for Joe Sharp, who is just 2 for 30 ($0.34 ROI) with that move during the past five years at NYRA. I'm going to try to beat him with Pegasus Red and Jeter. I know that neither of these runners are really winning types, but they're dropping out of tougher New York-bred $25,000 claiming races and are likely to be overlays. Furthermore, there appears to be enough speed in this race to keep Special Jo honest and set up the late runs of these closers.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,7

RACE 7: EL KABEIR (#3)
This actually becomes an interesting race after being switched to the main track. Gypsum Johnny is the horse to beat as he returns just five days after a solid third-place finish behind the talented Diversify in the Saginaw. Once a sprinter, he's handled longer distances in his last two starts, and he figures to be involved from the start in a race that doesn't feature that much early speed. He'll be on my multi-race tickets, but the runner that I think will offer the best value in this race is El Kabeir. I know that his recent form has been pretty disappointing, but he's had excuses in those starts. He was just overmatched two back against some of the best sprinters in the country and actually didn't run quite as badly as it appears. Then last time at Monmouth he worked out a very wide trip in a race that was totally dominated by horses that stayed towards the inside. He's handled wet tracks in the past, and I think he's very dangerous at a price.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,13,14

RACE 8: STORY TO TELL (#5)
This is a weird race where many of the runners that are likely to take money have not yet run fast enough to win at this level. I'm skeptical of runners such as Francesco Appeal, Moon Over a Beauty, and Brimstone, who are all stepping up in class. Instead, I'll take the horse who has run fast enough to win this race, even if he hasn't done it recently. Story to Tell put forth some impressive efforts over the winter, but appeared to tail off after the inner track season. He returned last time at Belmont in an ambitious spot, and he actually ran better than it appears. Irad Ortiz was oddly passive in the early portion of that race and Story to Tell was shuffled to the back of the pack. The horse clearly had some run late, but he was left with too much ground to make up in a race that mostly held together up front. He's better when he gets a more aggressive ride, and Manny Franco should have him placed closer to the pace here.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4

RACE 9: SECRET SCHOLAR (#4)
Martino will attract support as he gets a positive rider switch to Javier Castellano, but his dirt races are pretty slow. At a more attractive price, I prefer Secret Scholar. I know this horse has had his fair share of chances, but I think he finally catches the right field. He actually ran pretty well two back when he chased a fast pace that collapsed. Another horse involved in that wicked pace, Shadow Surprise, came back to destroy a field in his next start. Secret Scholar disappointed in that subsequent race, but he may have been badly hampered by an awkward start, and I think he deserves another chance.

Win: 4