PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 6:   10 - 3 - 9 - 4
Race 7:   6 - 5 - 4 - 9
Race 8:   1/1A - 9 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 1 - 11 - 9

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: BYE BYE (#3)

#7 Bay Storm is obviously the horse to beat as she returns to the site of her last victory, a triumph over this course and distance in the Christiecat last September. She led from gate-to-wire that day, and figures to use similar tactics here given the lack of speed signed on in this affair. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the early leader, and she looks loose up front. Her two races since returning from a layoff this year have been decent, but I thought she was supposed to offer more of a finish last time as the 4-5 favorite. I’m taking a shot against her with #3 Bye Bye. This Christophe Clement trainee made her return from the layoff at this level last time and put in a good effort to just miss. That was a day when the rails were set at 9 feet on the inner turf course, and the inside path probably wasn’t the best place to be. I think she can move forward with that start under her belt, and she had a nice foundation of solid turf sprint form from her 3-year-old season that she can still build upon. I prefer her to the other obvious alternative #4 Alwayz Late, who could be somewhat compromised by the lack of pace in this affair. I’m actually more afraid of Clement’s other runner #8 Mischievous Dream, who was a visually impressive winner last time and has seemingly found her niche as a turf sprinter.

WIN: #3 Bye Bye, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 7,8

RACE 5: SIDEKICK (#4)

I have no major knocks against #6 Gasoline, who is overdue to break his maiden after posting strong speed figures in the first three starts of his career. He just ran into a better rival last time when run down by the promising Artorius. He has the tactical speed to work out a good trip and goes out for a barn that has really come alive in recent weeks. He’s the one to beat, but he figures to be a short price now that his form is totally exposed. I actually think #5 Winit has more upside from that June 10 affair, though it remains to be seen if he can turn the tables on Gasoline. Winit showed promise when overcoming a wide trip to be second at Gulfstream in his dirt debut over the winter, and took a further step forward in his return last time. I think this well-bred son of Tapit still has upside and he should be a square price. My top pick is #4 Sidekick. This son of Honor Code is a half-brother to Travers winner Code of Honor, so the pedigree is there for him to be a good one. He ran like a horse that would benefit from more ground in his career debut when rallying belatedly to get up for third. I liked the way he seemed to level off and run to daylight in the last furlong in a race that didn’t feature a particularly strong pace. Shug McGaughey is 8 for 30 (27%, $2.60 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to dirt routes over the past 5 years.

WIN: #4 Sidekick, at 5-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #5 Winit, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 7: WHITTINGTON PARK (#6)

Both Jorge Abreu runners in this N1X allowance drop out of the Mike Lee, which was won on the front end by Rotknee. I thought #5 Who Hoo Thats Me ran the better race despite finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind his stablemate. The winner set a torrid early pace and Who Hoo Thats Me was uncharacteristically close to the front end, ultimately paying the pace as he faded in the stretch. This time I would imagine that Prat will take him off the pace in a race that features plenty of speed types. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and he proved that he can run well from behind in his first start off the layoff. #4 Unique Unions is arguably most dangerous of the speeds, since he is versatile enough to stalk. However, I don’t think he gets better as the distances stretch out beyond 6 furlongs, so I worry a little about his stamina, especially in a race with so much pace signed on. I’m going in a different direction with #6 Whittington Park. This horse was green in his career debut last year, weaving in and out through the stretch en route a third-place finish behind the talented Rotknee. He was more professional with blinkers in his second start, sailing clear to an easy victory. Something obviously went awry in the Bertram F. Bongard, and he’s been off since then. I like his steady series of workouts for the return and Brad Cox has decent stats off layoffs of this type. He’s a half-brother to quick sprinter Steam Engine and stakes performer Critical Value, so there’s pedigree here for him to improve. This son of Midnight Lute just feels like one that could benefit from having time to grow into himself and the price figures to be fair.

WIN: #6 Whittington Park, at 7-1 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 8: ROMANOSA (#1) / ANGELINKA (#1A)

#9 Invincible Gal is supposed to beat this field as she returns from a layoff and makes her first start for the Chad Brown barn. Graham Motion did a good job with her, but she did develop a habit of settling for second, just never able to get back to the winner’s circle after winning her career debut. Most of those subsequent starts came against stakes company, so she figures to appreciate dropping back down into an allowance. I don’t fully trust her to seal the deal at a short price and she seems like the kind of runner on which the public could go overboard. Nevertheless I do prefer her to Brown’s other entrant #6 Nazuna, who didn’t have a major excuse when checking in second at this level last month. I instead prefer #1 Romanosa from that affair. She was making her first start in this country for Christphe Clement, which is not a strong move for the barn. She finished far back, but I thought she got the wrong trip, sitting on the rail in a race that was dominated by outside movers. It’s unclear how much she would have had to offer in the lane, but she was forced to alter course while rallying. I like her French form and think she can do better here. She’s part of an entry, which normally would be an issue for me. Yet I also like her entrymate #1A Angelinka. This filly faced lesser company in France and Germany, but achieved decent results, showing steady improving over the course of 2021. She did her best running on the lead in Europe, so it was curious to see her rated aggressively in her U.S. debut last time. Irad Ortiz stays aboard here, but at least she’s landing in a race that figures to feature a more honest pace, so she’ll have a better chance to settle if he rates her again. I just think she’s better than that stateside debut would indicate and the entry figures to be a fair price given the presence of two Chad Brown runners.

WIN: #1 Entry, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9: SLUGO (#2)

I’m not particularly fond of anyone with turf form in this finale. #10 Martinez is arguably the horse to beat, but he probably doesn’t have much improvement left and this barn has been a little cold lately. I actually prefer #9 Moon Hunter from his last race, since he seemed to appreciate the turnback, just hitting his best stride too late. #1 Luca At the Spa exits a different race at this level which came up much slower, but I thought he ran decently. The pace wasn’t particularly fast and he closed well after getting shuffled back in the early stages. Multiple horses from that affair have come back to improve their speed figures, so he strikes me as one with some upside. There are also some first time turfers to consider. The logical one is #11 N Y Anthem, a son of War Dancer who is a half-brother to a multiple turf winner. I don’t fully trust these connections to make the surface transfer, since trainer Tyler Servis has never won a turf race, but the horse makes sense. My top pick at a bigger price is #2 Slugo. This horse has obviously had some issues, as he’s a 5-year-old making just his third career start. He ran on decently in his debut after a poor start, and last time showed improved tactical speed before flattening out. He’s coming off another layoff here, but I like the surface switch for him. Big Brown is a deceptively good turf influence. The dam never tried turf, but she’s produced a couple of foals who handled it without winning. Michelle Nevin is the midst of a strong meet, and Luis Saez figures to get aggressive from the inside in a race that lacks a clear pace scenario.

WIN: #2 Slugo, at 8-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #1 Luca At the Spa, at 10-1 or greater