by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 6:   11 - 1 - 9 - 2
Race 7:   3 - 1A - 2 - 4
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   12 - 10 - 6 - 2

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: CODYLICIOUS (#6)
C K Dexter Haven is obviously the horse to beat, but he’s had plenty of chances. He is dropping in for the lowest tag of this career, but he’s not the kind of horse you’re supposed to bet. The alternative that most people will consider is Uncle Pockets, a son of top sire Uncle Mo who debuted for a tag and immediately drops down to $20,000 in his second career start. His debut effort was abysmal, as he could barely keep up with an atypically slow pace and plummeted to the back of the pack. Jason Servis does a terrific job, but it would be quite a feat to get this runner to the winner’s circle off that effort. I’m instead taking a shot with Codylicious, who should be a decent price in this race. This horse obviously has some mental issues, as he was his own worst enemy in each of his two starts in March. That was especially evident last time out, as he actually broke well and was up close, but seemed to lose focus when horses ranged up outside of him on the turn. He got bumped and lost his action as he abruptly took himself completely out of the race. This runner probably has more ability than that, and he would benefit from an aggressive rider from Pablo Fragoso here. A quick recent workout last week might suggest that he’s doing well.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5

 

RACE 3: MOTIVATIONAL (#6)
I’m not enamored with any of the runners likely to take money in this spot. Laythatpistoldown is a bit cheaper than these horses, but he has been in good form. Jorge Navarro, who has done poorly at NYRA historically, has improved his statistics on this circuit during the past year, so I don’t think you can dismiss this runner. Lucky Ramsey has held his form well for the new barn. War Bond clearly has back races that would win this, but his recent form has to be concerning. I’m trying to beat these runners with Motivational, who gets back to flat racing after failing to win his maiden over jumps. This horse has actually run well on the flat in the past, and Jack Fisher quietly does very well in this situation. Filtering for races at 10 furlongs or less on turf in DRF Formulator (therefore excluding hurdle races), Fisher is 11 for 57 (19 percent, $3.99 ROI) over the past five years. Obviously, he’s won with some prices, and this horse figures to be a square price despite drawing Javier Castellano.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,7,8,9

 

RACE 5: WHEATFIELD (#7)
Tillie’s Lily has to be considered the horse to beat. She’s largely untested, and her early speed makes her especially dangerous in a field where her only significant pace rival is Touch of Bling. Jonathan Thomas has decent numbers off layoffs, but I do think this filly needs to continue moving forward because she has beaten slightly weaker company in all of her races. Touch of Bling would be tough if she ran back to her race two back, but that was a different situation over the Aqueduct turf course. Rumble Doll is a nice mare, but she’s always dependent on pace, and there just may not be enough of it in this field. I’m taking a shot against the shorter prices with Wheatfield. She’s only had a few chances on turf, but she has made the most of those opportunities. She was a close second behind the talented turf sprinter Rapid Rhythm in early 2017, and then she was third at a huge price in an exceptionally tough Smart N Fancy at Saratoga last summer. I know that her most recent turf effort in the Mardi Gras was lackluster, but she had to alter course a few times during the stretch drive of that race. Some may argue that she’s gone off form recently, but she actually had legitimate trouble two back. She’s hardly the most likely winner, but she’s going to offer value.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,5

 

RACE 6: SOUPER PLATINUM (#11)
While there are many contenders in this race, few really interest me as wagering prospects. Cookie Crisp has been in reasonably strong form, but he should have won last time against a weaker field. Shortlist drops out of a tougher spot and gets back to the right distance, but he clearly does not have a strong will to win. Cumberland River interests me a bit because his lone turf race came in his career debut, and he wasn’t quite prepared for a top effort that day. This is clearly a move of desperation, but I think he’s one you have to use. I won’t be surprised if there’s a wacky result in this race, which is why I’m making a case for longshot Souper Platinum. I know he looks way too slow, but I think we’re going to see an improved effort out of him. His maiden win came sprinting on a synthetic surface, and he ran well that day, indicating that he actually has a little ability. He returned from the layoff as a gelding last time and ran what was easily the best turf race of his career, albeit against a weaker field. That race was run over a “good” turf course that was playing pretty slowly. It’s notable that his only other turf race also was run over a course rated “good,” yet that one was actually a total bog. Therefore, it’s forgivable that he didn’t handle it. I think it’s interesting that Michael Trombetta is bringing this horse to New York and running him in such a tough spot after protecting him last time. He’s bred to be a decent turf horse since his dam was a graded stakes winner on this surface. I know this pick is a bit of a reach, but I think there are some signals pointing in this direction today.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,4,8,9,13

 

RACE 7: SIR BALLANTINE (#3)
The entry is going to be a very short price in this race. The one that they’ll be betting is Splashtastic, who is arguably facing a much easier field in his second start off the layoff. There were some talented runners, such as Sunny Ridge and Timeline, in his return race last time, and Splashtastic didn’t run that badly to be fourth. However, that feels like a race where a number of the expected favorites underperformed. Splashtastic has back races that would absolutely crush this field, but you have to wonder about whether he can get back to those efforts after taking a year off. Furthermore, the $62,500 claiming tag does not exactly inspire confidence that he’s going to take a step forward. The likely second choice is Driven to Compete, whose speed makes him dangerous. However, he’s run his best speed figures against vastly inferior competition and I find it curious that Pletcher has run him at Parx in two straight starts. He’s not for me. Realm is somewhat interesting, as he actually ran better than it seems in his last two dirt starts in Florida. However, he still may be a bit slow. Since I don’t trust any of these horses, I’ve landed on the contender that I know is in great form. Sir Ballantine earned the highest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field (118) when beating allowance company last time, and horses have come back out of that race to validate the number. It’s not as if the pace of that race was particularly fast, and there’s an argument to be made that Sir Ballantine ran well within the context of the race as the only horse to make up any ground whatsoever. Perhaps the most appealing thing about this runner is his trainer’s record with last out winners. Over the past five years, Danny Gargan is 17 for 68 (25 percent, $2.68 ROI) with horses in dirt routes coming off wins.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,8
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,4,7,8,9

 

RACE 8: CHINA RIDER (#2)
I suppose Really Proud is the horse to beat off her third place finish against stakes company last time. While that was just a listed stakes for restricted three-year-olds, the winner Miz Mayhem is a very nice horse. Yet there are still hurdles for this filly given that all of her good efforts have come at five furlongs in Florida and she’s stretching out today. The two fillies coming out of the 4th race on May 5 both ran well. Conquest Tizfire set a legitimate pace and was unlucky to lose as the winner got a perfect trip to close her down. However, the horse that I want to bet out of that race is China Rider. This filly obviously needs some luck as one of the closers in this race. However, it’s undeniable that she has been in very good form since returning to turf this spring. Both Okinawa and Mominou, who beat her on Apr. 12, would be heavy favorites in this race, and China Rider never got fully clear when attempting to rally through traffic behind Conquest Tizfire last time. Furthermore, China Rider rarely gets the respect that she deserves and figures to go off at a square price once again.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5,6,8