PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   2 - 9 - 11 - 7
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 5:   7 - 12 - 9 - 3
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 7:   1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 9:   3 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 10:   2 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 11:   5 - 4 - 11 - 7

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: EXACT ESTIMATE (#1)

Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher each hold a strong hand in this maiden affair. #2 Commandperformance figures to attract support for the sheer fact that he’s dropping out of a Grade 1 into a maiden race. And it’s not the first time he’s done so, having failed to graduate when trying the maiden ranks in March as the 1-20 favorite. This horse was a talented 2-year-old, but it’s possible that he just hasn’t moved forward this year. He didn’t get an ideal trip in the Blue Grass, but he also didn’t run particularly well. I prefer Pletcher’s other entrant #4 Gasoline. His debut was decent, but he took a big step forward in his second start in a salty maiden heat on Derby day at Churchill Downs. He earned a strong 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure despite having some trouble early in the race and being forced wide on the turn. He obviously has talent, but these two are meeting an intriguing pair from the Chad Brown stable. #3 Artorius is the more immediately appealing of Brown’s two runners. He launched an eye-catching late rally from far back to get up for second in his debut, and galloped out strongly past the wire. While he’s out of multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Paulassilverlining, it’s likely that the added ground will suit him as a son of Arrogate. He’s obviously a major player, but I’m equally intrigued by Brown’s other entrant. #1 Exact Estimate didn’t run as well on debut, finishing over 11 lengths behind impressive winner B Dawk. Yet I thought he showed some determination to come back for second after getting passed in upper stretch. He’s really supposed to appreciate added ground, as his dam was Grade 2 placed routing on dirt and he’s a half-brother to dirt marathoner Tizamagician. He looks like a galloping sort who should appreciate the mile, and he also possesses speed from the rail in a race that features a somewhat murky pace scenario.

WIN: #1 Exact Estimate, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 3,4

RACE 4: RYAN’S CAT (#4)

There is no shortage of early speed in this N1X allowance affair. While the TimeformUS Pace Projector isn’t predicting a fast pace, run-off speed #2 Prisoner almost guarantees that they’ll be moving up front. That could spell trouble for others who want to be forwardly placed, particularly #6 Reggae Music Man and #7 Montauk Daddy. Prisoner is undefeated in 3 career starts, winning each of his races by open lengths. However, he’s working his way up the class ladder after being risked for a $25k tag upon return. This is by far the toughest field he’s met and he’s returning from a brief layoff. If he comes back to the field, #1 Scilly Cay is the most obvious beneficiary. He’s run well from off the pace in the past and put in a good effort in his lone prior start at this level in May 2021. The only problem is that we haven’t seen him in action in nearly a year. Chad Brown does well off 180+ layoffs in general, but he’s just 22 for 99 (22%, $1.36 ROI) off that type of break in dirt sprints. Narrowing it down even further he’s 3 for 6 ($3.51 ROI) off a trainer switch within that sample. I won’t be surprised when this horse runs well, but it’s not like he’s a standout in this field. I’m going in a different direction with #4 Ryan’s Cat. He possesses the highest TimeformUS Late Pace Rating in the field, which is always a positive in potential pace meltdowns. This horse obviously hasn’t gotten back to the speed figures he achieved in early 2021, but he’s slowly been working his way back into fitness since returning from a layoff this year. I’ve liked each of his recent races more than the last, and want to give him extra credit for closing into a slow pace last time. He figures to work out the right trip here and could be sitting on another improved performance.

WIN: #4 Ryan's Cat, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8: OUTBOX (#4)

I’m not really trying to beat the Euros in this 2-mile Belmont Gold Cup. I made them my top two selections, though I do strongly prefer #4 Outbox of the two foreign runners in here. This British gelding has kept a busy schedule, making 16 starts last season. He also displayed some quality in a few of those races, racing close behind recent Group 1 Coronation Cup winner Hukum twice during the summer. He’s also no stranger to international travel, having finished second in Swedish Group 3 and winning a Group 1 in Qatar just within the past year. He returned from the most recent trip abroad to finish just behind BC Turf winner Yibir at Newmarket, setting the pace before getting outkicked to the wire. He clearly regressed when wheeled back in just 15 days last time, but this subsequent trip to America suggests he’s no worse for wear. While he’s gone shorter distances recently, he just missed in a 1 7/8 miles stakes early in his career, and he’s tried 2 miles on all-weather before. He travels keenly and likes to be forwardly placed, but I trust regular pilot Hollie Doyle to work out a trip for him. I have far more questions about the form lines of #1 Loft, who travels over from Germany. These connections know how to take down big races, as his trainer upset the Arc last year with Torquator Tasso. Loft obviously handles the distance, having won a German Group 2 stakes going the 2 miles last time. There were some crazy late splits posted in the replay of that race, but I’d view them with quite a bit of skepticism given that the final time was posted on screen before the horses even reached the finish line. I won’t be surprised when he runs well, but I’d want a more generous price on him than Outbox. As for the Americans, I’m not the biggest fan of #2 Abaan, though I do respect his stamina. I’m a little more interested in #5 Strong Tide, who lost all chance when steadied badly in the stretch of the Louisville last time. Yet I’m not really interested in elevating him above his European counterparts.

WIN: #4 Outbox, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 1,5

RACE 11: JOUSTER (#5)

This Intercontinental is among the most wide open races of the entire weekend at Belmont Park. There’s no clear favorite and I can make a case for many runners at a variety of prices. In this situation, I typically try to do some value shopping, so I’m somewhat against the first two choices on the morning line, #7 Caravel and #13 Miss J McKay. The former obviously has races that make her competitive here, but she hasn’t been quite as reliable since leaving Elizabeth Merryman’s barn, albeit while trying some tougher spots. She’s a player, but I didn’t see her as having a significant edge. Miss J McKay was fairly impressive when winning the local prep for this last time, but she got a very favorable pace scenario, sitting on top of slow early fractions. She displayed a nice turn of foot through the lane, but it will be tough to work out as good a trip from post 13, even with Joel Rosario taking over. #4 Tobys Heart is the one horse who figures to be single-digit odds that I want to use prominently. She just shows up and runs well almost every time they spot her appropriately in a turf sprint. I liked the way she overcame a slow pace to win last time, and the 6 furlongs of this race should suit her perfectly. Looking for bigger prices, there are a couple of longshots that interest me. My top pick is #5 Jouster. There isn’t a ton of early speed signed on, and she has the ability to be much more forwardly placed than she was in the Giants Causeway last time. She got squeezed back soon after the start and found herself last in a field of 13, a disaster for a filly who does her best work on the front end. All things considered she actually closed well for sixth, leading me to believe that she has a future as a turf sprinter. I think she can be more effective with a better trip this time, and she retains Flavien Prat. I also want to use #11 Miss Majorette at an enticing price. Though she finished 3 lengths behind Miss J McKay in the License Fee, I liked the way she closed through of the pack to get second into that slow pace. She’s been improving with nearly ever start since focusing on turf sprints, and I thought she took a subtle step forward getting into Mark Casse’s barn last time. She figures to get overlooked and will be charging late if some pace materializes.

WIN: #5 Jouster, at 7-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #11 Miss Majorette, at 12-1 or greater
USE: 4