by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 2: 4 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 5 - 9
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 4 - 9 - 1 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 8 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 9: 2 - 8 - 10 - 4
RACE 2: ELEKTRONIC (#4)
I don’t usually strongly endorse favorites, but I believe Elektronic will be very tough to beat. This lightly raced 3-year-old is hardly a standout in terms of speed figures, but you get the feeling that the best is yet to come. Linda Rice’s runners almost always need a start first out, and he showed improvement, which is typical of this barn, in his second start. Elektronic stepped up to handle winners last time, and the manner in which he won belies the final margin. He was always in control of that race, flicking his ears back and forth as he brushed off Veteran’s Beach in deep stretch. This colt is bred to be special as a son of the 13-time turf winner Karakorum Elektra, and he has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip. Notably, Jose Lezcano rode all three of this race’s top choices in their prior starts yet sticks with this colt. The main alternative is Rice’s other runner, Fast Getaway. He dominated an overmatched group upon his return at Aqueduct, but he was supposed to win as the favorite last time. He is honest and reliable, but I get the sense that we’ve already seen his best, whereas Elektronic is clearly on the rise. The other horse to consider is Mango M. This 4-year-old gelding finally broke through his N1X allowance condition last time after failing at short prices on a number of occasions last year. That was a relatively soft race for the level, and this one is considerably tougher due to the presence of the two Rice entrants. Turning back to seven furlongs should not pose a problem considering how well he ran going six furlongs last June. I find the other two to be more appealing though.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 4 with 1,7 with 1,2,3,7
RACE 3: NINJA DUST (#5)
Ari’s Naughty Luca is expected to scratch after he ran in an off-the-turf race on Thursday. That leaves Inclunation as the heavy favorite, and I don’t dispute that he is the most likely winner. However, this horse has been in spots where he was supposed to win before. That was certainly true last time when he went off as the even-money favorite and was unable to reel in a longshot winner. He has earned speed figures that suggest he’s much faster than his rivals, but I don’t think it’s quite as clear-cut as it seems to be on paper. I want to take a shot against this horse with Ninja Dust. I know that he’s been a major disappointment so far this year, but all of his efforts have come sprinting. This horse had shown improvement when they stretched him out in distance as a 2-year-old. He was no match for Tacitus in his second start, but he ran deceptively well in his final start of 2018, closing to be fourth, just a head behind today’s favorite Inclunation. He’s a son of Lookin at Lucky, so added ground is supposed to help him. He’s going to get ignored in this spot based on his inferior speed figures and the switch to an apprentice rider, but I think he’s got an outside chance to pull off an upset.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Box: 5,6
RACE 7: FLEET WARRIOR (#5)
Rally Cap deserves to be the favorite in this spot, but he almost seems too obvious. Mertkan Kantarmaci is clearly hoping for an easy win here as he runs him back at the same level for which he was claimed despite the fact that he won so decisively last time. His top speed figures tower over this field, but I’m not going to be surprised if he regresses off that big effort last time. Most will consider Linda Rice’s pair of runners to be the best two alternatives. Stink Man earned a competitive speed figure last time, but he was beating a weak field that just didn’t show up behind him. I think he’s not quite as good as he looks. Dr. Lloyd would be more dangerous if he showed up with his top effort, but you have to be concerned about the fact that he was vanned off last time and is now dropping in class. There’s another horse in this race who makes a ton of sense and is going to get ignored merely due to the connections. Fleet Warrior showed improvement off the claim for the Rob Atras barn this spring, but he also may have just appreciated getting back on fast tracks. He ran well in those two claiming events in March and April, earning speed figures that make him faster than everyone in this field except Rally Cap. He was claimed out of his last win by the low-percentage Luis Miranda, who rested him and brought him back in an impossible spot. Yet, all things considered, Fleet Warrior didn’t even run that badly in the Mike Lee. He was chasing a fast pace early, got spun wide off the turn and only faded from contention late. Based on that performance, I don’t think his form has totally fallen apart for the new connections. It’s very interesting that Jose Ortiz is taking this mount and I think this runner might be live in a race that many players might try to oversimplify.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 1,2,3,4,8
RACE 9: DYNAMITE KITTEN (#2)
This seems like a race that the public is going to misread. Many of the contenders have had plenty of chances on turf, so I anticipate that horses like Paved with Gold and Fetching are going to attract plenty of support. The former was oddly bet down to favoritism in her turf debut last time, and she certainly ran to that support. Yet that was a relatively weak maiden race for the level, and I believe she will have to improve to beat this field. I feel the same way about Fetching, who has a right to improve in just her second career start. She overcame some traffic to win, but she also got a very favorable pace setup ahead of her and now has to stretch out for the first time. I have to bet Dynamite Kitten in this race. I know she looks a bit cheaper than some of her rivals, but she has significantly improved since returning to turf for John Kimmel. Her performance two back is worth watching since she essentially bolted on both turns and somehow still finished second. According to Trakus, she covered 111 more feet than the winner, Got the Gist – the equivalent of about 12 lengths. She confirmed that improvement when she stepped up to this level last time, earning a 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Furthermore, she even ran better than it seems in that race since she got involved in a very fast pace that fell apart. The early pace of this race should be far more moderate, with only Flush likely to outrun her to the lead. She also gets a positive rider switch back to Junior Alvarado for this start.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,8,10
Trifecta: 2 with 4,8,10 with 1,4,8,9,10