by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 2: 5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 5: 7 - 8 - 3 - 12
Race 6: 6 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 7: 12 - 8 - 9 - 1
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 7 - 5 - 4 - 3
RACE 1: ALWANEES (#6)
I suppose Michael Wonderful is the horse to beat after finishing second in his return last time. A repeat of that effort obviously gives him a chance here, but the published running line makes it seem like he was more of a threat than was actually the case. The winner of that race was dominant, and Michael Wonderful was merely picking up the pieces for second after the race collapsed behind him. In some ways, Espresso Caliente is more appealing out of that race as he forced the race to collapse late and should appreciate the slight cutback to a mile. I’ll use both, but there are two interesting first-time turfers drawn to the outside. While neither one has overwhelming turf pedigree, Alwanees strikes me as the type of horse who could move up on this surface. Almost all of the progeny of Street Cry seem to handle turf, and I think Steve Klesaris has picked out a good spot for this one to make his turf debut, as this restricted 3-year-old claiming race has not drawn a particularly competitive field.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,7
RACE 4: TOO FOOFOO FOR YOU (#2)
Both of Wesley Ward’s first-time starters seem dangerous in this spot. He’s named live riders on each of them, and both possess significant turf pedigrees. Kuna is a daughter of top turf sire Scat Daddy and is out of a turf-winning dam, whereas Cyclical is the first foal out of graded stakes-placed turfer Wave Theory. Ward seems to be winning with almost every juvenile he sends out, so you aren’t likely to get much value on either one of these fillies. Among those who have run, I do think there’s a candidate to step forward. Too Foofoo for You finished far back in her debut going five furlongs earlier at the meet. However, she had significant trouble early in the race, as she got squeezed leaving her inside post as the field converged toward the rail heading into the turn. She lost four or five lengths as she was steadied, and her race was basically over at that point. Yet, all things considered, she still made a decent run in the final quarter, showing me enough to give her another shot here. Tom Morley, who isn’t necessarily known for winning with first-time starters, adds blinkers for this filly’s second start. The stretchout to six furlongs also should help.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,7
RACE 5: LA NATUREL (#7)
Avery Maeve has to be considered the horse to beat as she gets back into a race against members of her own gender after trying males last time. She just didn’t get the right trip that day as she was shuffled out of position early. She figures to move forward off that effort and she ran plenty of races last year that would give her a good shot against this bunch. Another horse that must be included is Angel Food, since she’s made just one turf start in her career and it was a winning one in competitive time. However, this is a wide open race and I think there are some others to consider at better prices. One horse that may get overlooked somewhat is La Naturel, given the ostensibly negative trainer change away from Wesley Ward. However, despite having a barn of cheap horses, Richard Metivier actually does a decent job, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to hold together this filly’s solid recent form. I like that he’s running her back on just 13 days’ rest after a ridiculously easy maiden victory at the expense of overmatched rivals. I don’t mind the 7 furlongs for her given how strongly she finishes her races and she proved that she’s just as effective rating in her start two back. That day, she nearly beat Samara, who would probably be among the favorites in this spot. At a big price, I also want to throw in Animauxselle, mostly because the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and she seems like one that is likely to be picking up pieces at the end.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,8,11,12
RACE 7: TIZ HE THE ONE (#12)
This is one of the more intriguing races on the card. I’m just not thrilled with Yummy Bear, who gets back to the right spot after being overmatched in the Kingston last time. He typically runs well, but he’s had his chances at this level and usually finds someone to beat him. Battle Station is sure to take money as he returns to turf for the dangerous Wesley Ward barn. I do find it somewhat curious that they have focused solely on dirt racing since he made his winning grass debut last fall, but perhaps those are where the opportunities were as a New York-bred. I’m using him defensively, but he will need to improve. Ambassador Jim is a difficult call since he just hasn’t taken a step forward since his 2-year-old season. He gets needed class relief, but I’m not sure it will be enough. I’m most interested in one who figures to go off at a much bigger price. Tiz He the One made two turf starts last summer at Laurel. I’m not concerned about his performance on Aug. 5 since that race was run over boggy conditions that he clearly didn’t handle. His prior effort on July 15 was actually quite good. Bombs Away, the winner of that race, is a talented horse who was in very good form at the time. Tiz He the One did well to chase him before getting a bit tired late. It seems likely that he prefers a shorter distance than that, so I like this spot as he returns as a new gelding.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,8,9
RACE 8: HONOR UP (#6)
A couple of horses are coming out of the eighth race on April 21. While the speed figures for that race came back fast, they have not held up over time. J J’s Dreaming looks like a standout in here based on that performance, but it’s not nearly as fast as the figures suggest. I think he’s very vulnerable if he does indeed go off as the favorite. Honor Up is supposed to win this race if he shows up. The question is, which Honor Up will we get? He showed plenty of ability as a 2-year-old, finishing a game second behind Grade 1 winner Audible back in November. They picked an ambitious spot for him to return in the Lexington, and it appeared that something went amiss that day. He appeared to have landed in the perfect spot last time, but he didn’t show up. The muddy track may have had something to do with that, as winner Danebury showed up with a surprisingly dominant effort to win. If Honor Up can rebound and get back to the races he was running last year, he’s going to win this race.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4 with ALL