PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 5:   5 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   5 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 7:   5 - 3 - 9 - 4
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 9:   7 - 10 - 3 - 9
Race 10:   3 - 10 - 8 - 12

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

The scratch of Laugh and Play dampens my enthusiasm for this race a bit. With This Vow (#7) might now vie for favoritism as she returns from a layoff and gets back on turf for new trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. She has plenty of prior turf efforts going longer that put her in the mix here, and she did sprint effectively early in her career. I don’t mind this spot for her. Itsakeyper (#5) is also a strong contender, though she was probably one that you wanted to have last time when she won and paid $15 against a softer field. That said, this race could also feature a favorable pace setup and she may just been in strong form right now. I’m going in a different direction with a more creative idea. Seven-year-old Ruvies in Time (#2) has made one prior start on turf when she was a 2-year-old. That was long before she turned into the horse she is now, as that turf race was no better or worse than her surrounding lackluster dirt form at the time. I’ve always wanted to see her get another chance on turf since she’s a daughter of good turf influence The Factor with some grass on the dam’s side. Perhaps they’re going back to this surface too late, since she’s gone off form recently. However, she’s going to be a price first off the claim for Bruce Brown, and it’s encouraging that Javier Castellano takes the mount for this barn.

Fair Value:
#2 RUVIES IN TIME, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4

I’m just not thrilled with either of the short prices in this field. Higher Quality (#2) also comes off a victory, but he earned that against weaker at the conditioned claiming level. He’s off the claim for Jamie Begg, but this runner was claimed by Rob Atras, and Begg is deputizing while that trainer is on suspension. Truculent (#5) is the other short price to consider, but he got a perfect trip on top of a slow pace when he won last time, and it feels like there’s other speed for him to deal with here. I just want some alternative to these who will offer better value, so my top pick is Royal Realm (#4). There’s obviously a possibility that he’s no longer good enough to compete on this circuit. However, I can make some minor excuses for his last couple of starts. Two back he was slightly shuffled back heading to the quarter pole and was guided down to the inside to make his run by a rider who tends to spend too much time on the rail. Then last time he broke slowly and was asked to make an early advance into contention before fading late. I think he’s likely to get a more patient ride with the switch to Trevor McCarthy, and it feels possible that this pace could come apart.

Fair Value:
#4 ROYAL REALM, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 5

My main interest in this race is to bet against two horses, Atomic Blonde (#1) and Star Devine (#6). The former will take money based on her superior speed figures, and the latter will get bet because it’s a trainer switch to Mike Maker with Irad Ortiz riding. Yet I believe that both of these fillies aren’t running over their ideal distance in this 9-furlong affair. This feels too short for Atomic Blonde, who has done her best work in races at 1 1/4 miles and beyond, and it surely seems too far for sprinter Star Devine. In my view, Skims (#5) is clearly the horse to beat and it seems possible that she might not even go favored. She was overmatched when she came off the layoff in the Jenny Wiley last time, but her form was heading in the right direction at the end of her 3-year-old season. She made a decisive move to take over on the turn of the Sands Point last year en route to victory, and then was hardly disgraced in the American Oaks where she was part of a rough stretch drive. If she can build on any of those races she’ll be tough to handle. I would use her with Mise En Scene (#2), who rebounded from a poor effort in the American Oaks last year in her return at Keeneland. She had a lot of ground to make up at the quarter pole and put in a strong late run to just miss. This feels like a tougher field than that one, but she could get some pace ahead of her.

Fair Value:
#5 SKIMS, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 7

This starter allowance affair looks particularly wide open. I suppose Meraviglioso (#9) will take some money again after narrowly losing at this level last time in her first start off the trainer switch to Rick Dutrow. Yet I thought she had her chances that day and didn’t see why she was supposed to turn the tables on Carbon (#3), who edged ahead of her at the wire last time. Carbon isn’t exactly a winning type, but I liked that she turned around her form last time with the blinkers added. She had obviously gone in the wrong direction for Linda Rice, but she showed some signs of life first off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmci and continued that forward progression last time. She went off at a very generous price last time when she just missed and I could be convinced to give her another chance here if she’s around her morning line odds. My top pick is Jolly Miss Jill (#5), who is one of a pair of fillies exiting a weaker $30k conditioned claiming event that was rained off the turf. She was beaten by Lady Mine, who reacted very badly to kickback early before launching a wild rally to get up at the wire. However, Lady Mine benefited from a quick early pace, whereas Jolly Miss Jill was chasing the leaders and took over from the other speeds before getting swallowed up by that closer. Now Jolly Miss Jill is first off the claim for Linda Rice, who is winning at 36% with this move over the past 8 months for an ROI of $2.47. She has prior speed figures that suggests she fits at this level. Yet this is a race where you have to let price be your guide, as I could see the wagering going in a number of directions and I wouldn’t want to settle for an underlay. Even a horse like Try It Again (#4) could be worth including at the right price. Her last race is a concern, but she seems to move up on a wet track and could play out as the main speed here in a race that features a murky pace scenario.

Fair Value:
#5 JOLLY MISS JILL, at 5-1 or greater
#3 CARBON, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 8

The obvious horse to beat in this allowance affair is Candle (#6), who may just be getting back into the right situation as she gets another chance to sprint on turf. Her only prior race over this distance on grass resulted in her lone victory, where she earned an impressive 112 TimeformUS Figure. That had seemed like an outlier at the time, but horses have run back out of that race to earn similar numbers in subsequent starts. She didn’t run that badly going a mile last time, but failed to finish off that race like a horse who will benefit from this turnback. I don’t have a major knock against her, but it does feel like she’s going to be a short price here. Main rival Shootoutthelights (#7) could also take money on the strength of her debut race at Gulfstream, where she was an impressive winner over 5 furlongs. However, she didn’t run nearly as well next time at Churchill when Irad attempted to rate her. I worry that 6 furlongs may be a touch too far for her. I’m more interested in two other fillies. Z First (#5) may get somewhat overlooked due to the fact that she’s primarily competed in route races recently. Her prior sprints earned lower speed figures, but she’s improved a lot since she last raced over a sprint distance. I was impressed by the decisive nature of her claiming win two back, and then last time she got a tough trip, chasing a fast pace at Monmouth while racing 3-wide. I’m not totally convinced that the 6 furlongs is perfect for her, but she figures to be running late if pace develops. My top pick is Plentitude (#2). This could be a tough spot for a horse to try turf for the first time, but I do get the sense that this filly has more ability than her debut speed figure indicates. She only won by 1 1/2 lengths in that Tampa dirt sprint, but she always appeared to be in command of that field, doing just what was required to maintain her advantage through the stretch. Some may be deterred by her lack of turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but Quality Road is a strong grass influence, especially sprinting. I think it’s meaningful that Christophe Clement immediately switches her over to grass, and she could get somewhat ignored against this salty bunch.

Fair Value:
#2 PLENTITUDE, at 9-2 or greater
#5 Z FIRST, at 6-1 or greater