PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   5 - 7 - 8 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 7:   8 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 8:   7 - 1A - 2 - 8
Race 9:   8 - 5 - 4 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

I’ll be interested to see how much money Cant Keep Me Down (#1) takes in this maiden claimer. She was a little chilly on the board in her debut last summer, and was unable to capitalize on a good trip. She was apparently purchased since then by Three Diamonds and transferred to Mike Maker. She now stretches out off the layoff while making a realistic drop into a high-priced maiden claimer. Maker is 6 for 17 (35%, $3.35 ROI) when he doesn’t use Lasix 180+ day layoffs over the past 5 years. She’s logical, but I worry she could be overbet with Irad taking the mount. Diamond Status (#5) might be the horse to beat in her current form, but it’s a little tough to endorse an 0 for 12 maiden. I thought she put in a nice effort against a tougher field at Monmouth last time, and now she’s dropping back down to a level at which she’s had success before. However, it is a little worrisome that she’s lost the early speed she once possessed. My top pick is Solevo Spritz (#2). She debuted at a lower level than this sprinting on turf at Aqueduct, showing decent early speed. She didn’t have much to offer in the lane, just staying on at one pace after a wide trip. Yet that felt like the kind of effort a horse might build upon, and she is bred to go longer, especially on her dam’s side. I would expect her to display more speed on the stretch-out in a race where forward position may be an asset. She has upside first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez and should be a square price.

Fair Value:
#2 SOLEVO SPRITZ, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 4

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario where Melting Snow (#7) has a clear early lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. That could be the case given her superior tactical speed. However, she was a little sluggish last time, unable to make the front before fading going this distance. Now she’s making her first start off the claim for Ray Handal, but she’s rarely an enticing price and I wonder if her last race is a sign she’s heading in the wrong direction. Customerexperience (#1) is a little more appealing on form, but I do worry about a lack of pace in this race. She’s a confirmed closer, and was badly compromised by a slow pace last time against tougher. Happy Sophia (#4) also rallies from off the pace, but she doesn’t have to be as far back in the early stages as she was last time. She leapt up at the start and did well to get up for second behind a runaway winner. This is a realistic spot off the claim and the price should be fair. My top pick is Run Devil (#5), who just appears to have multiple arrows pointing in her direction. She looks a little cheap, but I actually like the step up in class off the claim. Rob Atras is 9 for 26 (35%, $2.38 ROI) first off the claim with horses moving up in claiming price by 50% or more on dirt over 5 years. She lost a weaker race last time, but she had previously been in good form, and she possesses the tactical speed to get the right kind of stalking trip. I also think Manny Franco could be the right fit for a horse who tends to require some vigorous encouragement.

Fair Value:
#5 RUN DEVIL, at 7-2 or greater
#4 HAPPY SOPHIA, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 5

It’s a little concerning that $200k purchase River Tay (#8) is debut for a $40k tag, but I would tend to respect this filly anyway. Wesley Ward generally has success debuting horses in maiden claiming races, though the numbers are a little better on dirt than turf. I really liked her workout at the OBS March sale last year, but it’s obviously taken her a while to get to the races. She has the pedigree to be a turf sprinter, and John Velazquez takes the mount, so I won’t be surprised when she runs well. Lexi’s Spirit (#7) is a viable alternative as she gets class relief. She has shown some promise in turf sprints on occasion, but just seems a little overmatched at the maiden special weight level. She ran a decent race last time, wearing cheekpieces, but was unable to make up any ground through the final quarter. This is a softer spot and she has a good chance to break through if she merely holds her form. My top pick is Now Showing (#5). I don’t think we’ve seen the best this filly has to offer in either of her turf starts to date. She got badly shuffled and steadied back in traffic when she made her turf debut against a much tougher field at Gulfstream in March. Then last time she stretched out to a mile at Keeneland and was too keen though the early stages, rushing up to contest the pace from the outside draw. She’s more effective sprinting, and now she drops to a more realistic level. I believe she has more turf ability than the results indicate, and the price should be fair enough.

Fair Value:
#5 NOW SHOWING, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6

Mondego (#4) is exiting a maiden here going this same distance four weeks ago, and a repeat of that performance makes him one of the primary contenders here. There doesn’t appear to be an abundance of speed signed on in this race, and his running style makes him a danger to wire the field. He also may be one of the most naturally talented horses in the field, as he showed promise on debut and seemed to put it all together last time when returning to front-running tactics. Among his main rivals is Clever Thought (#9), who got too far behind a slow pace last time at Keeneland but had previously run well in a pair of maiden events at Gulfstream. However, he will get a rider change to Ruben Silvera with Irad Ortiz going out of town to ride the Penn Mile. C’Est Magnifique (#6) is another to consider. He was also compromised by a lack of pace in his most recent start when closing for third behind his stablemate. Added distance should suit him, but new rider Eric Cancel will have to work out a trip. I’m most interested in a pair of first time turfers. My top pick is Jungfrau (#5), who showed promise early on and progressed nicely during his 2-year-old season. However, he was too ambitiously campaigned following a maiden victory by disqualification over the winter. He failed to show up in both the Withers and Florida Derby, so now Bill Mott will try something new. I’m sure turf was always a backup plan for this colt, given that he’s out of a dam who was campaigned in Europe who is a daughter of multiple Group 1 winner Special Duty. He gets Lasix for the first time and has the tactical speed to work out a forward trip in a race that lacks pace. I also want to use first time turfer Game Change (#7). He’s another who has recently gone the wrong way on dirt, but he showed some promise over the winter and has pedigree for this surface. He runs with an extended, high-striding action that should translate well to the grass, and he figures to be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#5 JUNGFRAU, at 5-1 or greater
#7 GAME CHANGE, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 8

This race was tough to wrap my head around. I suppose Deep Cover (#8) is the horse to beat as he returns from a layoff and drops in class. However, there are some red flags here. He showed the ability to win an N2X state-bred allowance last year, but he’s immediately dropping in for the tag following a break. Tom Morley is 3 for 43 (7%, $0.98 ROI) off 150-300 day layoffs over the past 5 years, so these types often need a start. The Oscar Barrera entry also makes sense, but I’m always reticent to take entries in this situation. I have more trust in Upper Level (#1A), who has dangerous speed with Jaime Torres aboard. Truebelieve (#1) has better overall form, but he’s tough to trust off a layoff at a short price with this low-percentage jockey named. These factors make me want to search for some better prices. One option to consider is He’s Got It (#3), who moves way up in class off the claim for Rob Atras. His recent dirt form leaves something to be desired, but he's clearly a better turf horse, and now he’s getting back on his preferred surface. As noted for Run Devil earlier, Atras has good stats moving horses up off the claim, and he ran some races on this circuit last year that put him in the mix. My top pick at a bigger price is Marathoner (#7). He looks too slow based on his recent form, but I don’t think we’ve seen the best he has to offer lately. He got significantly steadied heading into the far turn in his last turf race in April, and I don’t want to judge him off his surrounding dirt form. He shipped to Belmont to try turf once last year and nearly caused a 29-1 upset when just missing at a similar level. Marya Montoya has had some success with NYRA shippers in a limited sample. Marathoner has run a few other turf races out of town that put him in the mix and he’s going to be an enticing price.

Fair Value:
#7 MARATHONER, at 11-1 or greater
#3 HE'S GOT IT, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9

Distance is a key factor in this 11-furlong maiden event that closes out the card, as most of the runners in this field are stretching out to a marathon trip for the first time. Typhoon Lagoon (#6), one of the few 4-year-olds in the lineup, is the only runner to have previously tried the distance. I could use him in exotics, but some others appear to have more upside. Likely favorite Cyber Ninja (#5) earned a solid speed figure on dirt in his career debut, but visually appeared to show more of an affinity for turf when he switched surfaces in his second start. He was put in tight quarters and got shuffled back on the first turn, racing keenly in a bunched field. Despite being relegated to the back of the pack behind a slow pace, he produced the best finish of all to just miss getting up. He seems like one that’s cut out to run all day based on his physicality and pedigree, so the stretch-out makes sense. He figures to be a handful if he shows up with his best effort. My top pick is one of the Christophe Clement trainees. American Hustle (#8) has raced on dirt in his last couple of starts, but I think he’s going to appreciate switching back to grass. He handled dirt reasonably well last November, and showed some real stamina to stay on for third in that demanding 9 furlong affair. That performances gives me some confidence that he’ll appreciate this longer distance on turf. His turf performances as a two-year-old got progressively stronger with each start. He stayed on well when picking up the pieces last September, and then finished a deceptively strong fourth in a very live maiden race in October. He wouldn’t have to improve much on those 100 TimeformUS Speed Figures to factor here, and he should be capable of better now that he’s a 3-year-old. I also want to use first time turfer Juan Valdez (#4). This expensive auction purchase has been a disappointment, but I think he’s going to appreciate the surface switch. He’s moves like a turf horse and does have enough influences in his pedigree. He’s only sprinted on dirt so far, but I think longer distances will suit him much better. He’s taken money in prior starts, but should finally be a more generous price.

Fair Value:
#8 AMERICAN HUSTLE, at 7-2 or greater
#4 JUAN VALDEZ, at 9-1 or greater