by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 3: 9 - 3 - 13 - 4
Race 4: 4 - 2
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 8 - 9 - 1
Race 7: 6 - 7 - 3 - 8
Race 8: 1/1A - 3 - 4 - 10
Race 9: 7 - 4 - 3 - 2
RACE 1: KNOW POINT GIVEN (#3)
Incredible Miss is going to be a heavy favorite due to a perceived lack of competition rather than any serious confidence in her own merits. She did earn this field’s highest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure in her return from an eight-month layoff, so she has a right to do better here with that effort under her belt. She’s also getting further class relief after dropping in for a $35,000 tag last time. The only major hurdle for her is the stretch-out in distance, and it’s basically an unknown factor. Her dam was proficient over route distances, but that doesn’t necessarily mean much. She’s the most likely winner, but she’s just not very good and is going to be a severe underlay. Therefore, I want to find an alternative. There are few viable options, but I do think there is one horse who deserves consideration. Know Point Given looks fairly unappealing at first glance. She’s had 18 chances and has only managed to hit the board on three occasions. Yet she’s coming off one of her better efforts, as she closed for second with a respectable 73 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Furthermore, she’s now stretching out to a route distance, and the added ground may actually be to her liking. I know she has not been particularly competitive in her route attempts, but it’s worth noting that all of those races came at the maiden special weight level. This is the first time that this daughter of Point Given is dropping in for a tag in a route race. As long as she maintains her form, I expect her to come with a solid late run at a square price. If the favorite proves vulnerable, she might just find herself in the winner’s circle.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5
RACE 3: NEW YORK HERO (#9)
This is one of the few races on today’s card that is still worth discussing after coming off the turf. There is a good deal of pace left in this dirt race, as Steam Engine, Bronx Bomber, Sams Last Ghasp, and Foolish Ghost all want to be forwardly placed in the early going. Steam Engine is hard to trust on this kind of track after he failed to handle sloppy going in his 3-year-old debut. Bronx Bomber has been rounding into solid form lately, but his lone start over a wet track was not spectacular. The same goes for Foolish Ghost, who should improve in his second start off the layoff. I’ll use them in some capacity, but I want to try and beat them with New York Hero. You can make the argument that this horse should actually be favored in this spot. He’s clearly seen better days, but he’s run plenty of dirt races that are good enough to beat this field. He didn’t have much success for Jeremiah Englehart, but he actually ran fairly well in his first start off the trainer switch to Gary Contessa two back. He contested a fast pace that fell apart and hung on well to be second in the late stages. I won’t hold his turf start against him and now he’s getting a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz. Furthermore, he’s versatile enough to close from off the pace, which is probably the preferred running style in this race. I’ll use him with some of the aforementioned runners, and I’ll also include Mystical Song, who has some past dirt races that give him a shot.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,11,13