by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 2 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 5 - 1A - 6
Race 9: 11 - 7 - 8 - 9
RACE 2: MAJOR FORCE (#6)
I suppose Fuel the Bern is the horse to beat as he ships up from Florida off a series of solid performances. He’s tried a variety of distances, but his best effort was arguably his turf debut, which came going today’s 7-furlong distance last fall. While it’s somewhat of a negative that he was dropped in for a $16,000 tag in March, he’s since turned around his form and actually finished just behind a good horse last time. I’m hardly against him, but I do think Major Force will be awfully tough for this field to hold off in the lane. I was skeptical of him turning back in distance to six furlongs last time, but that turned out to be exactly what this horse needed. In a race that featured a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), he rallied past them all in the stretch and won going away. According to Trakus, he ran his final quarter-mile in 21.78 seconds, which would be remarkable for stakes horses going that distance. The negatives are that he’s stepping up in class and his main rival in that race, Charnley River, did not get a great trip. On the other hand, I think it would be unwise to underestimate the finishing power that this runner displayed last time. Linda Rice now moves him back into a protected spot, and she actually has very good numbers off wins in this situation. Over the past five years, she is 14 for 64 (22 percent, $2.10 ROI) with last-out winners in turf sprints at NYRA.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5,7
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 3,5,7
RACE 5: BLUGRASCAT’S SMILE (#4)
This is a very confusing race. Danebury looks like the right favorite off a commanding win over a muddy track last time. He’s really turned his career around since a string of poor efforts derailed him last season. On the other hand, I have some doubts that he can reproduce that performance given today’s circumstances. There are other speeds, and Charlton Baker has poor numbers off wins in dirt routes. In fact, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could also compromise his main rival Horoscope. Ultimately, I’m against both of these horses and would rather focus on those that can rally from off the pace. The horse that seems most likely to get the right trip is Blugrascat’s Smile. While he’s a bit slower than the aforementioned two, he’s shown the ability to rally from off the pace, and he put forth a career-best effort given similar circumstances last time.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5
RACE 6: MO FLASH (#1)
Theodosia will win this race if she is able to transfer her current turf sprint form to this longer distance. She was successful going longer on the dirt in the past, so you would think she would have enough stamina to see out this trip. Her last race came against much tougher company and she got a weird ride from Jose Ortiz, who appeared to think he had less horse than he actually did in upper stretch. This time, she might be the speed, but there are other horses that want to be forwardly placed here. I’m taking a shot against her with Mo Flash, who unfortunately is coupled with a stablemate that will also take money. This filly made three turf starts as a two-year-old, and they’re worth watching. She completely blew the start in her debut, breaking about 5 or 6 lengths behind the field. She actually ran fine in her second start, which came against colts, despite the race receiving a low speed figure. Then, in her final start on turf, the running line comment is misleading. She was steadied hard coming out of the final turn and then found herself in behind a wall of runners when attempting to rally in the stretch. She easily could have finished closer with a clean trip that day. As a daughter of Uncle Mo, it makes sense that she would handle turf and she’s clearly improved as a three-year-old. I like her getting back on this surface now that she’s developed into a better racehorse. I just wish she weren't coupled with another horse who will significantly drive down the price.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,7,8
RACE 7: ELOWEASEL (#2)
March X Press is obviously the one to beat at what figures to be a very short price. You can throw out her dirt race in the Soaring Softly last time, and her prior turf efforts make her awfully tough. I’m definitely using her prominently, but I prefer Eloweasel at a better price. At first glance, it appears that she hasn’t regained her prior good form for David Donk, but that assessment would be far from accurate. Eloweasel got a poor ride in her turf return in April, as she was in good position before Irad Ortiz inexplicably eased her back approaching the stretch. She was forced to race in traffic for the final quarter-mile and otherwise may have won. Then last time, they left her in a dirt race and she actually ran reasonably well, considering that it’s not her preferred surface. I like that she’s stretching back to 7 furlongs, which has always been her best distance.
Win: 2
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,8,11
RACE 8: WONDERFUL LIGHT (#4)
This race features the return of the popular multiple stakes-winning gelding Stallwalkin’ Dude. One of the most remarkable aspects of this runner’s career has been his durability, as he has netted nearly $1 million over the course of the last two seasons, running 22 times between 2016 and 2017. He rarely puts forth a poor effort and has been able to compete at a top level for almost the entire time he’s been in David Jacobson’s barn. However, Jacobson is not known for his success off layoffs, and Stallwalkin’ Dude hasn’t gotten a significant break in a very long time. I certainly hope he comes back as the same horse, but that’s hardly a certainty. I think this is the right time to take a shot against him, and Wonderful Light seems like the best alternative. There is actually some speed in this race, as Angry Moon and both halves of the Michael Dubb entry are all front-runners. That should help stalker Wonderful Light sit a perfect trip. While his speed figures are a cut below those of the favorite, he’s actually run very well recently. He put forth a strong effort to run down a well-meant pacesetter last time, and horses have returned out of that race to improve.
Win: 4
Trifecta: 4 with 5 with 1,3,6