PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   8 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 11 - 8 - 10
Race 7:   9 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 1A - 6 - 3
Race 9:   11 - 10 - 5 - 4

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

This state-bred optional claimer is a good exercise for trip handicappers, since 5 of the 6 runners entered for turf are coming out of the same race on May 28. Catch That Party (#3) was the 3-2 favorite on that occasion, and he’s likely to go off at a similar price again here despite finishing third. He surely ran the best race on that occasion, since he broke poorly and was reserved at the back of the pack behind a moderate pace. He launched a strong rally on the far turn, but just had too much ground to make up and couldn’t sustain his bid in the final sixteenth. The problem with this gelding is that he does have a tendency to break slowly, and there isn’t much pace signed on here. However, he might not have as much ground to make up in this smaller field. Ray Handal sends out his two main rivals, who also exit that May 28 event. Barrage (#2) finished ahead of Catch That Party, but I thought he had every chance to win that day. He did have to race 3-wide on the turns, so he covered more ground than some others. Yet he was in position to get the job done in mid-stretch and just a hung a bit in the late stages. My top pick is the other Ray Handal runner Agent Creed (#6). He saved more ground racing towards the inside on the turn, but was mildly hampered in the stretch. The horse clearly had some run and was starting to respond when Joel Rosario asked him to move. Yet Rosario chose to duck inside and the hole closed up at the eighth pole, forcing him to alter course and lose momentum. He probably wasn’t going to win the race, but it might have cost him a placing. That was his first start off a layoff, and he has a right to do better with that experience under his belt.

Fair Value:
#6 AGENT CREED, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 3

Pitch Clock (#6) looks like the horse to beat here as long as she handles the added distance. After a solid debut effort, she came back for her second start at Churchill against a very tough maiden field. She was ridden to the front that day and battled through swift fractions before coming under pressure at the quarter pole. While she was obviously no match for the runaway winner, she battled on gamely, finishing ahead of her other pace rivals. Horses have run back out of that race to validate the strong speed figure. I think she comes into this with the strongest form, but I’m not totally convinced that the added ground will work for her. The other Chad Brown trainee St. Benedicts Prep (#3) may be better suited to this spot. She finished well to complete the exacta on debut behind the talented Prank last summer at Saratoga. She then didn't fare as well in her second start before going to the shelf. She returned from a long layoff on turf last month and put in an even effort, handling the surface without showing any real improvement. Now it’s back to dirt going longer, and she has a pedigree that indicates she should get at least this far. My top pick is another filly that competed in that Sep. 4 race from Saratoga last year. Stunningly (#4) finished far behind winner Take Charge Briana that day, but her effort wasn’t as bad as it looks. She had good early position, but got steadied on the backstretch and then was shuffled out of the race while following a tiring foe around the turn. She was off for a long time and returned in April at Keeneland against a solid field. Reserved off the pace early, she encountered some traffic coming off the far turn. It took a while to find a clear path but was finishing with some interest across the wire. She seems like one that would be suited to the distance, and she may be better than she looks on paper.

Fair Value:
#4 STUNNINGLY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4

Chasing Daylight (#2) figures to go favored once again despite losing as the 4-5 public choice at a lower level last time. This filly showed some talent on debut last year when winning a state-bred maiden special weight event going this distance. However, she bet a pretty weak field that day, and was off for a long time after that. She was basically eased upon returning in April before failing to get the job done for a lower claiming tag last time. Perhaps she has another step forward in her, but I’m reluctant to take another short price. I also have little interest in La Aguililla (#3), who drops out of tougher starter allowance races for David Jacobson. This barn has been dangerous lately, but I’m skeptical that this 7-year-old mare will improve with added distance. I want to go in a different direction, and I think a few of the runners drawn towards the outside are viable contenders. Juliana’s Rose (#5) makes sense as she drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. She ran a big race last December in the mud but hasn’t been able to get back to that form ever since. Her last effort is a bit of a concern, but the class relief could make a difference. Dashing Della (#4) figures to be a bigger price even as she gets a rider switch to Joel Rosario. She clearly didn’t handle the turf last time, but she had shown some ability in her prior starts. I didn’t think she got the right trip two back when she got keen making a middle move after a poor start. She can factor here with her best effort. My top pick is Into Happiness (#6). She’s another making her first start for a tag after a series of allowance tries. Her most recent performance was obviously pretty poor, but she might not want to go 9 furlongs, and that was a much tougher field than this. Her prior dirt races at the N1X level were not bad efforts, especially considering the form of today’s competition. She makes a lot of sense on speed figures and appears to be working well in her return from a brief layoff. Michelle Nevin is in the midst of a strong meet, and this filly drew well in the outside post position.

Fair Value:
#6 INTO HAPPINESS, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 6

The short prices didn’t do much for me in this $40k state-bred maiden claimer. Orange Freeze (#8) can obviously win as the likely favorite, but I wasn’t thrilled with her last effort when she dropped to this level. She got there in mid-stretch and just couldn’t stay with the winner late in a race that she was supposed to win. I want to go for either new faces or runners who might get overlooked. The lightly raced option that interests me is Dreaming of Carli (#11). This filly was never a serious factor on debut, but she also was ridden very conservatively. After a poor start she was just nursed along at the back before encountering some traffic when she tried to angle out in the stretch. Now she switches into the barn of Ed Barker, and I’m not totally convinced that the added ground will benefit her. Yet she figures to be a square price. My top pick is Giggling Ghost (#9), who figures to be an even bigger price based on her 0 for 12 career mark. Yet this 4-year-old showed significant improvement when she returned to turf this spring. She ran deceptively well going this distance in that April 14 race at the level. She chased a very fast pace that fell apart and was finishing better than the other speeds. Then last time she cut back to a sprint and was in the mix until the late stages, racing on in tight quarters. I don’t mind her stretching back out, and she gets a rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.

Fair Value:
#9 GIGGLING GHOST, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 8

I didn’t want to settle for short prices on either favorite in this N1X allowance affair. Cupid’s Heart (#6) is obviously the horse to beat as she returns from another layoff. She put forth some of the best efforts of her career in her debut as a 2-year-old and then off a similar break when she returned at Saratoga last summer, so she obviously runs well fresh. However, I didn’t like her last performance going a mile, and she’s going to be a very short price despite the questions she has to answer. Royal Poppy (#1A) finished ahead of the now scratched Amaretti in her last start despite trying out new tactics, and I would be willing to give her another shot here if she weren’t part of an entry. My top pick is Khali Magic (#4). It’s unclear if she quite classes up with this field, but her greatest achievement is a New York-bred N2X allowance victory, which is exactly what Cupid’s Heart has accomplished. This 5-year-old can go in and out of form, but she was in one of her good cycles when she was last racing on dirt this spring. She ran deceptively well with a tough trip in that Mar. 3 event, and then broke through with an excellent performance to win on April 21. She got away with soft fractions, but she was always racing towards the inside during a time when the rail was not the place to be on the Aqueduct main track. Chris Englehart’s barn has been doing well at the meet, and her tactical speed should play well here once again.

Fair Value:
#4 KHALI MAGIC, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9

The finale is a confusing state-bred maiden affair with many ways to go. I generally didn’t want to settle for short prices, so I wanted to veer away from runners like Stow on the Wold (#12) and Chulligan (#6). The former will get bet with Irad Ortiz getting aboard, and the latter has been popular with the bettors and finally gets on the surface he’s bred for. Captain Party (#13) is also dangerous as he draws into the field from the AE list, especially given the recent hot streak of the George Weaver barn. However, I don't love the races he's exiting and preferred others at better prices. All of these can obviously win, but others figure to offer better value. Donk’s other runner Tony O (#10) makes plenty of sense and doesn’t figure to attract as much support. He stayed on pretty well for third at the level last time and seems like one that will benefit from the slight cutback in distance. My top pick is a first time starter who figures to get somewhat ignored. Border Patrol (#11) debuts for trainer Jamie Begg, but he’s almost surely been part of the Rob Atras stable until recently, with that trainer serving a suspension. This horse has some pedigree, being by good turf influence Point of Entry out of a dam who has produced 6 winners, including full-sister Command Point, who won multiple turf races. This horse appears to be working decently for the debut and should fly under the radar.

Fair Value:
#11 BORDER PATROL, at 12-1 or greater