PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 5 - 10
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 2 - 9
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 9:   7 - 12 - 3 - 9

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: LOLA LOLA (#1)

The major question for the two favorites in this race is distance. #3 Mrs. Boomer ran fairly well in her lone start going 6 furlongs, and now stretches out to a mile. #6 Bavarian Creme earned a slightly better speed figure two back going 7 furlongs, but she’s another who has to prove that she can get the added distance here. I do prefer Mrs. Boomer, whose pedigree indicates that this distance should be in her wheelhouse. She also ran into a pretty talented rival on debut when defeated by the well meant Fingal’s Cave. I expect a good effort from her, but she does need to get a bit faster. I’m less enthusiastic about the others with dirt experience, and would rather consider some new faces. #2 Chasing Daylightmakes some sense for Jorge Abreu, who is always dangerous with debut runners. However, he’s only started 3 first time starters in dirt routes over the past 5 years, and all of those were off-the-turf races. This filly also has more of a turf pedigree, especially on the dam’s side. My top pick is #1 Lola Lola. She debuted going 6 furlongs on turf, but her pedigree doesn’t exactly suit those conditions. She’s by stamina influence Tiznow and her dam is a half-sister to G2 Go For Wand winner Nefertini. She ran like a horse who lacked that turf tun of foot last time, so I like the stretch-out on dirt. Furthermore, Mike Miceli is 9 for 39 (23%, $3.03 ROI) going from turf to dirt over the past 5 years.

WIN: #1 Lola Lola, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 3: FORT TICONDEROGA (#4)

Likely favorite #3 Growth Capital has been bet down to favoritism in both starts to date, and he's likely to inherit that role again here. He seemingly had his debut race in the bag, but hung late as the winner re-rallied. He again settled for second last time at Keeneland, though he did have to cover more ground than the winner. This horse obviously has some ability, but looks ripe to get overbet once again as Chad Brown adds blinkers, seemingly in an effort to get this guy to pass horses. #1 Smoke and Heat is the other runner with recent turf form. He’s run well in both starts and took to turf without issue last time. He didn’t get as fortunate a trip as the top two finishers, going pushed very wide when launching his rally on the far turn. Yet he was still running on at the end, and gives the impression that a mile should be within his scope. I prefer a new face in #4 Fort Ticonderoga. This colt has been off for nearly a year since his unveiling as a 2-year-old. He was meant for grass in that off-the-turf affair, and actually put in an encouraging effort on dirt, lengthening his stride nicely through the lane while no match for winner Doctor Jeff. That one went on to win the Atlantic Beach on turf in the fall. Fort Ticonderoga is bred to move up on this surface, out of a Grade 3-placed turf dam who has produced Grade 2 turf winner Doswell as well as this guy's full-brother Secretary At War, also a turf stakes winner. Shug McGaughey is 12 for 52 (23%, $2.32 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in turf routes over 5 years.

WIN: #4 Fort Ticonderoga, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 4: SUNSET LOUISE (#4)

#6 Sister Linda had gotten a sneaky trip in her debut last year and was subsequently put on the shelf. She apparently flourished during the time away, as she returned a different horse last time. She ran down heavy favorite Royal Currency, who got too aggressive early, before drawing off to win by a dozen. Obviously the waters get deeper here, but that 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest number earned by anybody in this field. Don’t put too much stock in the trainer switch, as Michelle Nevin trained her into the last race, but transferred horses to De Paz while she served a brief suspension. She shows a quick workout here this week and looks dangerous right back. A few of these exit a race at this level on May 27. #2 Caragate might be the one you want from there as her form has been on an upward trajectory with the exception of an ambitious placing in the Gazelle. However, she got a pretty good trip last time and just didn’t have any late punch. #3 Know It All Audrey ran just as well in that spot after getting a wide trip and may be improving third off the layoff. Yet I wanted to go for a new face with #4 Sunset Louise. She looked like one that would appreciate more ground when she made her debut sprinting last November, and she indeed relished the step up in trip next time. She wasn't meeting a particularly tough field in January, which is partly why she got bet down to 5-2 favoritism. Yet she proved much the best, as she advanced through the field despite navigating traffic to win going away over today’s rival Know It All Audrey. That 76 TimeformUS Speed Figure obviously won’t get the job done here, but she's been off for a while and may be capable of better now. She’s a full-sister to Grade 3-placed The Reds, so there’s potential here.

WIN: #4 Sunset Louise, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8: AGENT CREED (#3)

A few horses in this field exit the May 28 race at this level, in which #5 Lord Flintshire lost by a nose after forging to a slim lead in midstretch. I thought he had every chance that day and showed his major flaw, a tendency to settle for minor awards. I prefer #7 Rally Squirrel from that affair despite finishing a couple lengths back in third. He did have to alter course in upper stretch, but really had an excellent trip without a major excuse. I just thought his tactical speed would play better in this spot. That said, this is a far more competitive field than that May 28 affair and I want to look at runners from other directions. I think #4 Front Line Dancer is somewhat interesting as he steps up against winners after breaking his maiden coming off a layoff last time. He was clearly best that day after going wide on the turns and launching a rally down the center of the course to get up. He managed to win despite racing a little greenly and failing to change leads in the stretch. I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best of him and won’t be surprised when he takes another step forward here. My top pick is #3 Agent Creed. He returns from a layoff for new trainer Michelle Hemingway, who stretches him out to the 9-furlong distance. He didn’t get ideal trips in either of his last two starts of 2021, as he was ridden to make a premature move last time and encountered traffic in deep stretch of each of those starts. He’s run some of his best races at Belmont Park, and the way this inner turf course was playing last week would flatter his running style. I also like the rider switch to Luis Saez, who should fit this one-paced deep closer.

WIN: #3 Agent Creed, at 7-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #4 Front Line Dancer, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9: CHARLEY RUDE (#7)

I’m not really against likely favorite #12 Gather the Facts as she makes her second career start. You could argue that she was one that should have won her debut for Chad Brown, but she didn’t take that much money and ran like a filly who probably needed the experience. She was in good position on the turn, but seemed a little slow to get in gear before hitting her best stride too late. That’s probably why Brown is adding blinkers for her second start. Any minor improvement on that debut effort will make her tough to beat. Another second time starter who merits consideration is #3 Mrs. Green. I’m not convinced that she was facing the toughest field in her debut, but she did run well while closing mildly though the lane after a slow start. Linda Rice’s runners tend to do better with a race under their belts, and she seems like one who should relish the slight stretch-out in distance. My top pick is #7 Charley Rude, who figures to be a square price in this wide-open affair. I don’t think she’s gotten ideal trips in either of her two starts. She was wide most of the way in her debut on synthetic at Gulfstream before staying on at one pace. Then last time she chased two-wide on turf at Aqueduct in a race that was dominated by rail runners. I think she’s going to appreciate this turnback in distance. Christophe Clement is 9 for 26 (35%, $2.23 ROI) going from routes to sprints on turf at Belmont over the past 5 years. Furthermore, there’s some classy sprint breeding on the bottom side of her pedigree. Her dam Biofuel could go longer, but that dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinters Tu Endie Wei and Indian Pride.

WIN: #7 Charley Rude, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 3,12