by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 3
Race 5:   1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 6:   3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 7:   9 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   2 - 8 - 1 - 3

PLAYS

 
RACE 6: CRACKSPEED (#3)
It’s difficult to know how bettors will approach this race given that the contenders are coming in from a multitude of different directions. I suppose Militiaman will take some money despite the fact that he’s only coming off a maiden victory. These lightly raced Chad Brown trainees tend to be quite appealing, and he’s already won over this course and distance. However, he does need to improve slightly on the 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned last time, and he won that race over a “good” turf course while closing into a fast pace. I prefer his more seasoned rivals. Hierarchy makes some sense, but he just doesn’t seem to have that killer instinct. The same goes for Rapt, who has earned the best speed figures but is a question mark going this distance. Extraordinary Jerry is slightly more appealing, since he had to wait in traffic in upper stretch last time and has prior speed figures that make him formidable. Yet I want to go in a different direction. I’m taking a shot with Crackspeed. I had been interested in this horse last time when he made his turf debut. He obviously handled the surface, but his trip did not work out. He was far too keen in the early stages, and Flavien Prat allowed him to run off on the lead as he set unreasonably fast fractions for the distance. All things considered, he actually hung on well to be fourth, just three-quarters of a length behind Hierarchy. Crackspeed should appreciate the slight cutback to 10 furlongs, and I would imagine new rider Joel Rosario will attempt to rate him on the early lead. If this horse can put it all together and run a professional race, he’s good enough to beat this field, and he should be a square price.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with ALL
 

RACE 7: ARCHITECT (#9)
I’m interested to see how the public approaches Anne Dupree. She is clearly the fastest horse in this field off her most recent outing, but that came on dirt. She showed uncharacteristic speed over a sprint distance and drew off to win with an impressive 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, there are some reasons to be skeptical of the legitimacy of that performance, as the second- through fourth-place finishers returned to run figures that were 10, 26, and 21 points lower in their subsequent starts. This filly has run well on turf in the past, but she remains winless over this surface. I’m more interested in other options, and I prefer her main rival, Architect. This filly just makes a lot of sense to me. She didn’t take much money when she made her first start for the Linda Rice barn last time, but that was a significantly tougher field for the level. She only beat one horse home, but she actually ran a lot better than it might seem. This filly was shuffled back in the early going and was slow to settle for Jose Ortiz. She then got buried inside for the stretch drive and had nowhere to go with some run in the late stages. I think she can move forward off that performance. I’m somewhat concerned about the lack of pace in this race since Anne Dupree does appear to be loose on the lead, but I would imagine Ortiz will try to keep Architect a little closer to the pace this time. The other intriguing runner is Enlisting, who switches back to turf for the first time since January. She was facing tough maiden fields at Santa Anita when she previously tried this surface and may have just improved since then.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,6
 

RACE 8: OLEKSANDRA (#7)
Dr. Shane got the best of Mai Ty One On last time, but he worked out a good trip, sitting just in behind the speeds, whereas Mai Ty One On had to wait in traffic at the top of the stretch. The decision might have been closer had Castellano found a seam earlier. Dr. Shane is a contender if he repeats that last effort, but he’s never been the most reliable win candidate, and I prefer others. Mai Ty One On has a legitimate chance in his second start off the layoff. Much is made of trainer Jane Cibelli’s poor NYRA record, but she got this colt to run a career-best effort over this course and distance last time. This gelding had been in deceptively strong form last fall, so it’s not as if his recent improvement came out of nowhere. The other horse likely to attract support is Vici. He has been intended for turf in his last two starts yet ran much better than expected on dirt, recording two of the highest figures of his career. So, was it the dirt that moved him up, or is he just in great form right now? He’s a contender, but I want to look for better value. My top pick is the mare Oleksandra. She takes on the boys in this spot, and she’s not catching any breaks. While she only earned a modest 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her NYRA debut last time, the performance was a lot stronger than it appears. There was no pace in that race, and she lagged at the back of the field early before unleashing a furious rally. Rosario rode her with great confidence as she came home her final quarter in a dazzling 21.41 seconds, according to Trakus. Drysdale has done well with the few runners he’s shipped to New York, and I’m confident she can do better if she gets a more favorable setup.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5