by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 1 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 9: 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
RACE 4: CARRERA CAT (#1)
Mama Mary was bet strongly in her career debut last time, going off as the 9-5 favorite in what appeared to be a competitive race. She ran pretty well, but she was no match for the wire-to-wire winner and could not quite get past today’s rival Lulu’s Pom Pom in the late stages. She figures to take plenty of action once again in her second start, but I wonder if she was really cranked to win first time out and just couldn’t get it done. Lulu’s Pom Pom is obviously a major contender as well, but she’s had plenty of chances at this level. The horse who had the toughest trip in that June 8 race was Carrera Cat, and I think she’s interesting in her second start off the layoff. She was uncharacteristically keen in the early stages last time, apparently reacting to the addition of blinkers. It’s important to note that she was three wide for her entire trip on a day when the rails had come down and it paid to save ground on the turf. Carrera Cat ran well in both of her starts as a 2-year-old and can certainly win this race if she rebounds in her second start off the break.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6,8
RACE 7: WAR CANOE (#5)
Conquest Hardcandy has kept the strongest company and comes into this race having earned the fastest speed figures. At first glance, she looks like the horse to beat. However, you have to be somewhat concerned that her connections tried to ship her to New York last year under very similar circumstances (same class level, trainer, and rider) and she failed to show up with a top effort as the favorite. Furthermore, this filly runs her best races on or near the lead, and she will have to deal with Out of Trouble and possibly even Still There through the early stages of this race. Out of Trouble can obviously win for the always-dangerous Brad Cox barn, but I felt that she took advantage of favorable circumstances last time. That was Belmont Stakes Day, when the rails were down on the turf courses, and she was able to hug the hedge throughout while setting a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures in TimeformUS PPs). She’s been progressing nicely for this barn, but I think she finds herself in a significantly tougher situation this time. If I’m going to take a horse out of that race, I want to bet War Canoe. While Out of Trouble was setting that dawdling pace, War Canoe was reserved at the back of the pack. She had to swing widest of all into the lane to make her run while rallying in the center of the course. All things considered, she did well to be third while putting forth yet another solid effort. Some may still regard her as an Aqueduct phenomenon, but she has run extremely well in all of her turf starts at Belmont this spring. It seems that this one-turn-mile distance is perfect for her, and the Pace Projector is predicting that she should get a fast pace to close into. The wild card in this race is Still There, who is curiously switched to turf despite having run extremely well in both of her dirt starts. While there is some turf pedigree on her dam’s side, Union Rags has been an awful turf influence.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,7
Trifecta: 5 with 2,7 with 1,2,3,4,7
RACE 8: FEAR NO EVIL (#1)
The scratch of morning line favorite Okinawa has significantly altered this race. The temptation of most horseplayers will now be to lean more heavily on Mominou, who figures to play out as the controlling speed. However, I don’t quite trust this filly stepping up in class. Her maiden win at Gulfstream was excellent, but I don’t feel that she’s matched that score in her two subsequent starts. I did not like the way she finished off her race two back and she had to work awfully hard to put away inferior foes last time. Furthermore, I’m not convinced that she’s well suited to a less than firm turf course, which she will encounter here. At short price, I believe she’s somewhat vulnerable. I’m even less enthusiastic about her main rival Jumby Bay. I know that she’s earned superior speed figures, but I have not been thrilled with either of her recent New York efforts. Her two best races came in Florida over the winter and I’m not certain that she can get back to that form here. Furthermore, the barn adding blinkers back into the mix seems like a move of desperation. I’m most interested in a couple of horses that finished behind Okinawa last time. Annie Rocks has to be considered a contender, especially as she gets a rider switch to Jose Lezcano. However, I’m instead taking another shot with Fear No Evil. Looking over this race again after the scratch, it appears that Fear No Evil should fall into a perfect trip stalking in behind the speed. One of the biggest issues for her in prior starts was falling too far out of contention early, but that’s unlikely to happen here. Furthermore, she showed that she can handle a legitimately “good” turf course last summer a Laurel when she ran a remarkable race to break her maiden. She’s in career form right now, and she figures to be a square price this afternoon.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6
RACE 9: SHILOH LANE (#3)
Sport is clearly the horse to beat as he finally drops out of the maiden special weight ranks. However, this is not a particularly trustworthy favorite. Sport has plenty of ability, but he’s been his own worst enemy on many occasions. Furthermore, the series of layoffs that have plagued him in recent years do not bode well for him putting forth a top effort this afternoon. He can obviously win, but I think you’re supposed to play against this entry at a short price. Looking beyond Sport, this race is totally wide open. Horses like Cumulative, Victor Lounge, and Bay Hill have all run well at this level recent. I suppose second time starter Expert has a chance to improve second time out, but it’s not as if he did that much running in his first start. I think there’s a horse in this race that is going to get somewhat lost. Shiloh Lane goes out for low profile connections, but he’s actually run no worse than many of the more logical alternatives. This horse was keeping decent company over the winter at Tampa, finishing right with longtime maiden Big Agenda on a number of occasions. Big Agenda went favored in a $75,000 maiden claiming race last week, so he’d certainly be among the top choices here. One might argue that Shiloh Lane’s form has deteriorated since coming to New York, but that’s not actually the case. He was part of a big field two back and just seemed to get lost at the back of the pack in the early going. He actually made up decent ground late in a relatively strong race for that level. Then last time he had no chance against maiden special weight company going a marathon distance. Assuming Sport doesn’t show up with a top effort, there really isn’t that much quality to the field, so I think this is a good race to take a shot with a horse like Shiloh Lane.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,7,8