PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 1A - 3
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 7
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 4:   8 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 7 - 8
Race 6:   2 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 2 - 9
Race 8:   10 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 9:   8 - 6 - 3 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: TIDE OF THE SEA (#8)

I acknowledge that #3 Soldier Rising is a likely winner of this optional claimer, but I am getting a little tired of his propensity to pick up minor awards. He has been in some tough spots since coming to this country, but he was really supposed to get the job done at this level last time. He encountered some traffic, having to alter course in the stretch, but he only produced a mild kick when he got into the clear. I won’t be surprised when he takes a step forward second off the layoff, but he’s going to be an awfully short price once again and some other should offer better value. I think Mike Maker has the two most intriguing alternatives. Both finished behind Soldier Rising last time and will need to improve, but they figure to be more enticing prices. #2 Malthael ran pretty well to be fourth, beaten just a neck by today’s favorite. He’s been cycling back into strong form over a few starts now and he really seemed to appreciate the slight cutback in distance last time. Yet I prefer Maker’s other runner #8 Tide of the Sea. He’s been out of form for a while now, but I thought he finally showed some signs of life on the class drop last time. He was setting an honest pace and actually tried to kick with the closers in the stretch before Kendrick Carmouche had to ease up on him as some runners drifted into his path. He must do better than that to turn the tables on the favorite, but he figures to get a good forwardly-placed trip once again, perhaps stalking #1 Petit Fils. The slight stretch-out to 1 3/8 miles will also help his cause.

WIN: #8 Tide of the Sea, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 7: DOMINICAN PIONEER (#4)

There’s no doubt that #5 Highly Respected is the horse to beat in this spot, but horses from the Chad Brown barn are getting consistently overbet at Belmont, which is understandable given his outstanding record so far at this meet. He’s a likely winner, but I could see him dipping into odds-on territory, and I don’t think that’s fair value on this horse in what is a pretty competitive allowance race. He ran well to just miss in the G3 Bay Shore last time, as it appeared he had made the winning move at the quarter pole before getting nailed by Wit. He has to stretch out an extra furlong here, and a few of his rivals aren’t exactly slouches. #2 Galt, the full-brother to Songbird, is getting significant class relief after running in a few Derby preps. He wasn’t disgraced finishing fourth in the Holy Bull, and last time you can’t fault him for not hanging with Epicenter, who is one of the best 3-year-olds in the land. Some may also consider #9 Varatti, though I wasn’t thrilled with his return at Keeneland. He lacked the early speed that he displayed on debut, having to be hard-ridden into the race while no match for a surprising runaway winner. I’m interested in a different Kentucky shipper. #4 Dominican Pioneer only earned a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his debut score, which is 11 points lower than the best number the favorite has achived. However, I was really impressed with the way this Wesley Ward trainee dispatched of his competition. He always appeared to be traveling well while contesting the pace and seemed to keep finding more when put to mild pressure through the stretch, hitting his best stride just as they came under the wire. He’s bred to stretch out, being by Pioneerof the Nile and a half-brother to multiple turf stakes winner Chocolate Ride. I expect John Velazquez to send him to the front here, and I won’t be surprised when he proves tough to catch.

WIN: #4 Dominican Pioneer, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8: Q F SEVENTY FIVE (#10)

I suppose #3 Conquer the World is the horse to beat in this N1X allowance affair. He’s run pretty well in all of his turf starts, running slightly higher speed figures each time. I liked the way he drew away to break his maiden at Aqueduct last fall, and he was finishing well in his return to grass last time after a wide trip. The slightly longer distance of this race should benefit him, and he’s drawn an advantageous inside post position. A few of his main rivals exit a race at this level from May 6 won by High Tide, but I wasn’t particularly thrilled with any of them. I wanted to go in some other directions. My top pick is #10 Q F Seventy Five. I don’t love the outside post position, but he’s supposed to be the controlling speed of this field. He was a visually impressive maiden winner two back at Gulfstream, sprinting away after dominating the race on the front end. He tried to pull off a similar feat at Churchill Downs last time, but that turf course may have worked against him. You didn’t want to be inside on the Churchill turf on Oaks/Derby weekend, and he rode the rail the entire way before fading late. I think he’ll be pretty dangerous with a similar trip this time for a hot barn. The other horse that I’d want to use at a much bigger price is #5 Gussy Mac. I know his overall form looks pretty spotty, but he ran well going a similar distance at Aqueduct last fall in the Gio Ponti when getting up for third behind Grade 1 placed Never Surprised. I wouldn’t put too much stock in either of his races since then, since one of those came on dirt, and another was over a non-traditional racecourse. He also ran deceptively well in some races last year, but was hindered by running at the wrong distances or getting bad trips. He has talent and figures to get somewhat overlooked in this spot.

WIN: #10 Q F Seventy Five, at 3-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #5 Gussy Mac, at 10-1 or greater