by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 7 - 6 - 9
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 6: 12 - 6 - 3 - 9
Race 7: 2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 11 - 9 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 11 - 5 - 6 - 3
RACE 2: LITTLE MISS AMY (#4)
Stormy Alexis clearly is the horse to beat. She's consistently earned the fastest speed figures and is coming off a second-place finish against tougher company. That said, she's dropping in class after a brief layoff, and the George Weaver barn has been very cold at this meet. I'm trying to beat her with Little Miss Amy, who ran deceptively well in her last start. Making her debut for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, she chased a run-off leader who set fast fractions through the opening furlongs. She finally managed to overtake that runner but was swallowed up by the closers in a race that collapsed late. There doesn't appear to be quite as much speed in this race, so she should have an easier time of it on the front end.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 6,7
RACE 5: DOUBLE CAST (#4)
Both Chad Brown second-time starters look formidable in this spot. Dovecote has a recency edge over Homeland Security and figures to go off at a shorter price. Dovecote was a little green in her debut but did well to come running late for second. She doesn't figure to be fazed by the stretch-out in distance. I'll certainly use these fillies, but my top pick is Double Cast. She's already proven that she can go this far, and each of her last two starts is better than it appears. She was off slowly two back when compromised by a slow pace. Then last time, she made a premature backstretch move to attack the pace and simply made the lead too early. Now she gets a positive rider switch to John Velazquez, and she looks ready to break through with a win.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,7
RACE 6: MO PROMISE (#12) / FOREVER FOR ALWAYS (#3)
The horse to beat is probably Belle of the Spa, who has run well in both of her turf starts despite going off at huge prices. She's finally going to be among the favorites today, and deservedly so, as she picks up new rider Javier Castellano. However, there is other speed in this race for her to contend with, and the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. There are a couple of interesting longshots to highlight. The one who interests me most is Mo Promise. This filly made two starts on turf last summer. In her debut, she was second to the talented New York-bred Lady Joan after stumbling at the start, and then she was overmatched against open stakes foes in the P.G. Johnson Stakes. The layoff is a concern, but Gary Contessa has been drilling her on the turf up at Saratoga and may have her fit enough for this return. At an even bigger price, I also want to use Forever for Always, primarily underneath in exotics. I know she's been facing weaker company recently, but she's getting a big trainer upgrade to Carl Domino and would benefit from a fast pace.
Win/Place: 3,12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,3,4,6,9
Trifecta: 1,4,6,9,12 with 1,4,6,9,12 with 3
Trifecta: 1,4,6,9,12 with 3 with 1,4,6,9,12
RACE 8: MONTCLAIR (#11) / CALL PROVISION (#9)
This race looks perplexing at first glance. However, I have two strong opinions: 1) The only horse I want out of that May 28 race at this level is Montclair, who was steadied in traffic for the entire stretch drive and should have won that race. 2) I strongly prefer Call Provision of the two Chad Brown runners. A lot of the other competitors have holes in their form and just don't appear to be suited to this distance or level of competition. Brown knows how to win off layoffs like this, and I think Call Provision, who had always shown talent, finally figured the game out toward the end of last season. He's the horse to beat at a relatively short price, but my top pick is Montclair. He's been compromised in each of his last two starts and figures to get a more honest pace to close into here. Hello Don Julio is the one other runner to use since he has improved in recent starts.
Win: 11
Exacta Box: 7,9,11
Trifecta: 9,11 with 9,11 with 3,4,5,7,10
RACE 9: BRAINCHILD (#11)
In a wide-open finale, my best idea is Brainchild. I know the layoff is a concern for a barn that has not had much success bringing runners back off extended breaks. However, this filly faced much tougher company as a 2-year-old, including the open-company stakes runners Compelled and Chubby Star. She's taking a realistic drop in class but is facing by far the softest turf field she's encountered in her career. She's a must-use at anything close to her morning-line odds of 10-1.
Win/Place: 11