by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 9 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   13 - 1 - 12 - 4
Race 3:   3 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 8 - 3
Race 5:   12 - 11 - 8 - 1
Race 6:   6 - 11 - 10 - 5
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   5 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 7 - 5 - 9
Race 10:   5 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 11:   12 - 4 - 7 - 6

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: CODY’S WISH (#5)
Mahaamel figures to be a prohibitive favorite in this race, and he is a very likely winner if able to repeat his debut effort. However, I have some reservations about him. While the winner of that race, First Captain, was very impressive, he won by overcoming a slow pace with a fantastic late burst of speed. Mahaamel had a much more favorable trip, setting a pedestrian early pace before kicking away in the stretch. He was run down by a very nice horse, but I want horses who were making up ground into that pace, not those who were setting it. Furthermore, he was meant to win that day, bet down to 6-5. Now Todd Pletcher adds blinkers for his second start, a surprising move considering that he’s just 3 for 18 (17%, $0.85 ROI) with blinker additions for maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. I’m not way against him, but I do think there is a very intriguing first time starter in the mix. Cody’s Wish makes his debut for Bill Mott, who continues to be an underrated trainer of first time starters. Over the past 5 years, Mott is 12 for 49 (24%, $3.78 ROI) with 3-year-old first time starters in dirt sprints. The majority of those winners were female, but he has also had success with colts. And this particular colt has a stellar pedigree, being by excellent sire Curlin out of the Grade 1-winning dam Dance Card. That makes him a half-brother to Grade 3-placed Endorsed. His workouts look pretty quick for this barn, and I’m going to guess that he’s a runner.

Win: 5
 

RACE 6: COLORMEPAZZI (#6)
Brilliant Brooks is likely to go favored once again despite failing as the wildly overbet 8-5 choice in his most recent start. It seemed incomprehensible that he would have been a substantially shorter price than the winner of that race based on prior form, and indeed he proved no match for that runner. I’m more optimistic about Devil’s Code, the horse who finished directly ahead of Brilliant Brooks last time. He’s arguably the one to beat based on that vastly improved recent effort, as he delivered a strong stretch bid after stalking on the rail throughout. His prior form hadn’t hinted at that kind of ability, but perhaps this lightly raced colt is just putting it all together. I’ll use him, but my top pick is the likely speed Colormepazzi. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring the early leader, and this horse is supposed to be the controlling speed. Eric Cancel rode him aggressively last time when committed to securing the lead despite engaging in a three-horse duel. Colormepazzi did well to put away those two pace rivals before opening up a sizable advantage in the lane. That was just a $30k conditioned claimer, but he nevertheless earned a competitive 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Furthermore, the Chris Englehart barn has been one of the hottest stables in New York over the past month and a half.

Win: 6
Exacta Box: 6,11
Exacta: 6 with 1,5,10
 

RACE 7: LOOKING AT BIKINIS (#5)
Firenze Fire is the horse to beat in this True North, if he runs. There is some rain in the forecast over the next couple of days at Belmont and his connections are not keen to run him over a wet track given his poor performances in the Carter and Forego last year. That said, if he gets his preferred footing, he’s going to be tough for this group to handle. He wasn’t beating much when he returned from the layoff in the Runhappy last time, but he nevertheless earned a strong 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure, matching the best number he’s gotten under Kelly Breen’s care. He has the tactical speed to be prominent throughout, and he does seem to always show up at Belmont Park. Flagstaff is his main rival based on his Grade 1 triumph in the Churchill Downs last time. Yet that was a fairly weak race from a quality standpoint, and the speed figure was underwhelming. Flagstaff is almost always involved in the finish somewhere, but I think he’s dressed up off his pair of recent wins. I’m most interested in some other runners who prepped for this at Belmont. Wicked Trick is somewhat intriguing on the turnback in distance, but he was no match for American Power of Looking At Bikinis in an allowance race sprinting two back. Perhaps American Power can wire the field, but I’m skeptical that he’s good enough. I am quite interested in the winner of that race, Looking At Bikinis. This Chad Brown trainee has had trouble finding an identity, but perhaps sprinting on dirt is his true calling. He had every right to lose last time after getting buried inside behind a slow pace, but he unleashed a powerful turn of foot in the last furlong to get up. I don’t mind the slight turnback, and he showed that he could handle a wet track early in his career.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,4,6,7
 

RACE 9: VIRGINIA JOY (#2)
While it only garners a Grade 2 rating, this New York Stakes has attracted a Grade 1-quality field. The morning-line favorite and horse to beat is the versatile Harvey’s Lil Goil, who kicked off her 4-year-old campaign with a popular victory in the Grade 3 Beaugay last month. That was only going 1 1/16 miles, but this grey filly has been effective over a variety distances, and arguably ran her best race at just a sixteenth shorter than this in the Breeders’ Cup last year. She possesses a versatile running style, so I wouldn’t be worried about her working out a trip. The only drawback is that she could go off at a short price in a very competitive race. Her main rival is arguably Mean Mary, who was bet down to 7-2 odds in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She didn’t produce her best effort that day but was hindered by the fact that she couldn’t get to the lead while chasing an honest early pace. She did what was asked of her in her return from the layoff, winning in workmanlike fashion after setting a pedestrian pace at Pimlico. She’s supposed to move forward with the stretch-out in distance, though it won’t be easy for her to defend her New York title given the overall strength of this field. I want to veer in a different direction, instead giving a shot to a filly with something to prove. Virginia Joy was a Group 3 winner in Germany, but came into Chad Brown’s barn earlier this year without much of a reputation. Yet she made a favorable impression in her U.S. debut, displaying a lovely turn of foot as she easily ran by talented stablemate Capital Structure. She obviously needs to take another step forward, but over 5 years Chad Brown is 12 for 33 (36%, $2.14 ROI) with last-out winners making their second starts of 180+ day layoffs in turf routes. There should be an honest pace for her to close into, and she figures to be a square price for these connections.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,7,9
Trifecta: 2 with 5,7 with 1,5,6,7,9
 

RACE 10: FANTASIOSO (#5)
European runners have dominated the Belmont Gold Cup in recent years, yet only one foreign runner has crossed the pond to compete in this edition. That horse, Baron Samedi, is a formidable presence in a race where the American-trained runners are generally unproven over this 2-mile distance. Baron Samedi has never negotiated this demanding distance himself, but he was successful racing as far as 1 3/4 miles last time out in Ireland, so there’s little concern about his stamina. The issue with Baron Samedi is that he’s fully exposed at this point, having won 6 races in a row while steadily rising in class. He had been an underrated handicap horse last season, but his recent form makes him the obvious choice against a somewhat uninspiring American contingent. I acknowledge he’s the horse to beat, but I’m not eager to accept a short price on him. There are a couple of intriguing alternatives that are based on this country, and both of them unsurprisingly began their careers on foreign continents. Ziyad is a fairly logical alternative as he stretches out to this marathon distance after meeting tougher company going shorter in his prior U.S. starts. He would be formidable based on his French form going back a couple of years, but there is some concern that he’s lost a step since then. I instead want to take a shot with the Argentine-bred Fantasioso. Like Ziyad, this horse has minimal exposure to U.S. audiences, having failed to hit the board in a couple of stakes tries earlier this year. Yet I thought he ran better than it might appear last time out in the Louisville when he never secured a clear path while attempting to rally in the stretch. He was stakes-placed going as far as 1 7/8 miles in his native Argentina, so there’s some evidence that he could handle this trip.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,8