by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 9 - 6 - 10
Race 3: 9 - 6 - 14 - 12
Race 4: 3 - 11 - 4 - 12
Race 5: 9 - 4 - 1 - 10
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 7: 7 - 2 - 11 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 9: 9 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 10: 8 - 6 - 2 - 9
RACE 3: SCARF IT DOWN (#9)
Earned Success seems like the horse to beat in this spot as he takes a nosedive down the class ladder from $40,000 into this $10,000 event. While that sounds drastic, the reality is that this horse has been running speed figures that suggest he probably belongs at a lower level, so Linda Rice is probably just being realistic and admitting that she made a bad claim. If he shows up, he’s the most likely winner, but he’s going to take plenty of money and there are some others to consider. I’m most interested in horses that are shown closer to the lead on the TimeformUS Pace Projector because I don’t see a ton of speed in this race. That makes horses like Liam Lets Go, off the Rob Atras claim, and Majestic Affair, who needs to get back on track, both somewhat interesting. Yet my top pick is a horse who figures to be rallying from just behind those runners. Scarf It Down has made two starts since the claim by Orlando Noda back in January. I thought he ran closed well to be third two back at Aqueduct, just failing to get by Liam Lets Go for second. He didn’t have the most comfortable trip that day and nevertheless finished strongly. And then last time at Churchill Downs he found himself in a salty field at a higher level and ran better than it might appear rallying up the rail to be fifth. I think his overall form is solid and he’s in deceptively strong form for the current barn. He’s also a horse who once had more tactical speed than he’s displayed in his recent starts, so I’d like to see Dylan Davis have him a bit closer to the pace this time.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,6,11,12,14
RACE 4: MIDNIGHT WHISKEY (#3)
Mr. Buckley’s debut was solid, especially when you consider that his trainer Ray Handal is 0-for-41 with first time starters, much less encouraging than his 5-for-21 (24%, $1.28 ROI) record with second time starters in dirt sprints. This horse was no match for impressive debut winner The Last Ace, but he stayed on well for second despite racing wide over a track that seemed to favor the rail path. The pedigree is certainly there for him to do better as he’s related to stakes winners Eye Luv Lulu and Tricky Zippy. He’s one of the ones to consider, but others figure to offer more value. One of those is Farragut, who never earned an eye-catching speed figure over the winter at Aqueduct, but nevertheless ran quite well within the context of a few races. He may want to go a bit farther than this, but he seems like one that could get lost in the wagering and merits consideration. There are a number of intriguing first time starters in the mix, including Blackjack Davey, a full-brother to the talented sprinters Blindwillie McTell and Duquesne Whistle, as well as the longshot Majestic View, who has shown some ability in his workouts. Yet my top pick is a second time starter. Midnight Whiskey’s debut effort is better than it looks on paper. He broke about a length slowly and was aggressively hustled up to battle for the lead. He was still in the mix at the quarter pole before fading late, and winner Gandy Dancing looks like one that might be bound for NY-bred stakes. The Asmussen barn doesn’t have the greatest stats with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints at Belmont over 5 years, but Asmussen does well with this move out of town. This colt’s speed could prove more dangerous against this inexperienced field and he figures to be a fair price.
Win: 3
Exacta Box: 3,4,11,12
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,7,9
RACE 6: THE RIGHT PATH (#6)
This is a highly competitive affair in which you can make a valid case for just about all of the runners in this field. Yet there are some questions to be answered by the two horses likely to attract the most support. That’s especially true of Instagrand, whose form has seemingly left him so far since returning as a 4-year-old. There’s no denying that he once possessed great ability, but it’s been a rocky road over the past year or so and he just wasn’t performing at his optimal level for Don Chatlos. Now he lands in the barn of Chad Brown, and perhaps that will make a difference. Yet you have to wonder what kind of trip he’s going to work out in a race with so much speed. That’s also a concern for his main rival Amundson. This New York-bred does his best work on or near the lead, and it’s hard to envision him securing the front end with horses like Tribecca and Ready to Escape in the field. Based on raw ability, Amundson is arguably the best horse in this race, but Jorge Vargas will have to walk a fine line if he’s to get him to the winner’s circle this time. I think this is a spot where we can get a bit more creative, so I want to take a shot with The Right Path at a bigger price. He’s spent the majority of his career contesting dirt routes, but I actually like him turning back in distance. He was so impressive to start off his career in a 6-furlong maiden event at Aqueduct as a 2-year-old, beating the Carter favorite Performer that day. And from there on out they just continually kept trying to make him go longer distances. He needs to run a career-best speed figure to beat this field, but he’s making his first start as a 4-year-old and the Jorge Duarte barn has been off to a hot start so far at Belmont Park. I think he’ll be charging late at a price.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 4,5,7 with ALL
RACE 8: MISS PEPPINA (#7)
The horse to beat in this spot is Voting Agreement, who flashed some real ability in her lone start at Saratoga last summer. Any time a horse wins a turf sprint by nearly 3 lengths it’s a dominant performance and this horse looked like one that would be bound for stakes before she went to the sidelines. Obviously some things went awry for her to be off so long, but she’s going to be a handful here if she returns in top form. The other logical contenders are Catch a Thrill and Bredenbury. The former is a 4-year-old filly who has shown herself to be very proficient in these turf sprints. Her return at Gulfstream last time was encouraging and she’ll be right there if she builds upon that effort. Bredenbury has contested two-turn races in all of her U.S. starts, but she was a sprinter in Europe last year so this return to 6 furlongs makes plenty of sense for her. She’s also a smaller type of runner who seems like one that would appreciate a turnback in distance. I’m using all of the, but my top pick is a newcomer to this surface who I’ve been hoping would eventually get a chance on turf. Miss Peppina doesn’t have much turf pedigree on the surface of things, as a daughter of Bayern out of an Is It True mare. Yet Bayern is actually a 14% turf sire and there is some sneaky grass pedigree in this female family. Her dam never tried turf and this is her only foal of note. Yet her dam is a half-sister to 5 turf winners, including a 13-time winner on that surface. Miss Peppina displayed a quick turn of foot in her debut last year, but couldn’t produce that kick against tougher competition over longer distances on dirt later in the season. I think this move to grass makes a lot of sense and I love that she’s retaining Joel Rosario, who fits her like a glove.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,8
Trifecta: 7,8 with 7,8 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 10: PROPENSITY (#8)
Chad Brown again has the horse to beat in this spot, as he sends out likely favorite Complex System. This horse turned some heads at the OBS sale in 2019 after an impressive workout, selling for a hefty sum considering his modest pedigree. While he lost as the favorite in his debut, he may have been hampered by having to race off the rail during a time when the inside path was a significant advantage. He failed to get the job done again as the odds-on choice at Gulfstream, but two turns might not be his preferred trip. I like that he’s returning to six furlongs, but he’s not as if he’s landing in some easy spot. Among those turning back in distance, I actually prefer his main rival Propensity, who is my top pick in here. Propensity clearly took to turf over the winter at Gulfstream, but I’m not sure he was as enthusiastic about having to stretch out to two turns. This is a horse who showed plenty of speed in his first few starts sprinting, and he just seemed to get leg-weary in the final quarter mile of each of those turf starts down in Florida. That said, he still earned a pair of TimeformUS Speed Figures that are higher than anything Complex System has achieved. That’s partly due to the fact that he’s a 4-year-old, but I nevertheless believe this runner is finally landing in an ideal spot. He has the tactical speed to be prominent throughout and should get the jump on his main rival. Others to consider include Carribean Gold, who should find this distance to his liking after getting outrun over 5 furlongs at Gulfstream, as well as the first time starter Uncle George, a half-brother to the talented turf sprinter Epping Forest.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,6,9,11
Trifecta: 8 with 2,6 with 2,3,6,9,11