by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 2: 10 - 4 - 8 - 7
Race 3: 9 - 2 - 11 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 6: 10 - 11 - 6 - 3
Race 7: 4 - 6 - 8 - 7
Race 8: 2 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 9: 6 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 10: 8 - 9 - 4 - 6
Race 11: 3 - 8 - 2 - 4
RACE 1: JUST FOR ONE DAY (#4)
Ahead of Plan is clearly the horse to beat as he returns from a lengthy layoff, and I want to be clear that I’m not endorsing a strategy that involves taking a strong stance against this favorite. He is probably going to win this race if he shows up with a good effort, and he’s been training like a big performance is forthcoming. He’s been working in company with Woody Stephens starter Honest Mischief and has been more than holding his own against that stablemate. Ahead of Plan already earned a speed figure that would win many races at this level as a 2-year-old, so he may be bound for stakes if he takes a natural step forward in his return. That said, there is another horse in this race who may possess exceptional ability. I don’t want to get too bullish about first time starters, but Just for One Day may be something special. Watching some of his recent workouts as well as some drills from last fall, it’s apparent that his horse has a massive stride on him. He just floats over the ground with far greater ease than all of his workmates and is eager to do more. The Belmont main track has been throwing some fast times, but Christophe Clement rarely pushes his first time starters to work as quickly as this one has. He’s bred to have ability, since his dam was a sprint stakes winner who earned nearly $300,000 during her career. This colt is a half-brother to Yuvetsi, who was also a sprint stakes winner in California. Just for One Day doesn’t necessarily strike me as a pure sprinter, but he obviously possesses some speed. He may not win this debut given the rival drawn just to his outside, but I think he’s a horse to keep an eye on for the future.
Win: 4
Exacta Box: 4,5
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 1,7
RACE 4: BLUEGRASS EXPRESS (#6)
H Man is the horse to beat in this race, but I’m starting to wonder when this runner will have reached his ceiling for Jason Servis. He always had some ability, but his recent performances for the new barn have far exceeded what he was capable of producing in the past. He’s back at the same level at which he won last time and is therefore racing for a tag here. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, but I don’t think this race is as straightforward as it seems. H Man may face early challenges from the likes of Empire Line and Binkster, who can keep him honest up front. I’m using him defensively, but I want to take a shot with a horse who will offer better value. My top selection is Bluegrass Express. For whatever reason, this runner seems to do well when he ships to the NYRA circuit. He seemed to improve when he came to Saratoga last summer, and he subsequent put forth the best efforts of his career in the fall at Belmont and Aqueduct. He’s tailed off a bit since then, but I don’t think his recent form is quite as poor as it seems. He was chasing an honest pace two back and then last time he did not get an ideal trip, buried inside for most of the way after breaking slowly. I like that Kendrick Carmouche is staying aboard as he comes to New York and I think he’s going to get a great trip stalking just outside of the aforementioned speeds. His best effort puts him in the mix. You could say the same thing about Fiery Opal, whom I will also use. He’s faced much tougher company in his recent starts and will appreciate the slight drop in class. His best form has eluded him lately, but he’s performed well off quick turnarounds in the past.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5,7
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 4,5,7,8
RACE 5: PACIFIC GALE (#4)
Three horses are likely to vie for favoritism in this spot, and two of them exit the Vagrancy Handicap last month. I thought that Pacific Gale was somewhat unlucky to lose that race after having to briefly alter course at the top of the stretch. She was no match for Come Dancing in the Distaff two back, but she proved that she can handle this 7-furlong distance by earning a field-best 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She’s just been in great form for John Kimmel since the middle of winter and I believe she’s likely to win this race if she merely maintains her current status. I prefer her to Separationofpowers, who was just a little dull as the favorite in her return from the layoff last time. She won the Grade 1 Test going this distance last summer, but even a repeat of that performance might not be good enough to beat this version of Pacific Gale. Separationofpowers took a big step forward second off the layoff last year, but she had an excuse in her return at that time. I could find no such excuse this year. The biggest threat to Pacific Gale may be Chalon. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. That’s not exactly her preferred style, but there is very little early speed signed on for this race. Her return race at Pimlico was fine, but I think she’s going to need a slightly better effort to come out on top here. She gained some notoriety in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, but I’m not sure what to make of that race in retrospect. The big favorite didn’t show up that day and the form of the race has not exactly been strong. She may go off as the favorite, and I just believe that Pacific Gale is a more likely winner.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,7
Trifecta: 4 with 3,7 with 2,3,5,7
RACE 8: STAN THE MAN (#2)
This True North drew a highly competitive field led by multiple Grade 2 winner Catalina Cruiser. This California-based son of Union Rags makes his first start since suffering his first defeat in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Catalina Cruiser is clearly good enough to beat this field if he returns in top form, but he’s run some of his best races on the front end, and there are plenty of speedy rivals to keep him honest up front, including Strike Power and Recruiting Ready. I’m using him, but I prefer some others. Whitmore always must be respected in races at this level, but he’s coming off a disappointing performance in the Churchill Downs Stakes. He came up empty in the lane after making a threatening move on the far turn. I believe he can rebound here, and he usually runs well in New York. I would also use the horse who finished just ahead of him at Churchill last time. Do Share closed from well back for fourth that day and is still looking to recapture the form that carried him to a dazzling victory in the Tom Fool earlier this year. He’d win this race with a similar effort, but his other performances do not quite measure up. I think this race is open to many, so I’m looking beyond the favorites for some value. My top selection is Stan the Man, who figures to be a square price. This 5-year-old has always had a ton of ability, but John Terranova has brought him along slowly and allowed him to race through all of his allowance conditions. He’s clearly proficient at a variety of distances, but I believe shorter is slightly better for him. This 6 1/2-furlong trip is in his wheelhouse, and he appears to be coming into this Grade 2 test in the best form of his career. His Westchester performance was excellent, and he appears to be working extremely well since that race. There are some question marks surrounding the main contenders in this race, and Stan the Man has reliably shown up with big efforts throughout his career. Perhaps he's not quite good enough to win, but don't be shocked when he outruns his odds.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,7,8
Trifecta: 3,7,8 with 3,7,8 with 2
RACE 9: COMPETITIONOFIDEAS (#6)
This is essentially a two-horse race between the Chad Brown pair, yet some would argue that it’s all about one horse. Homerique got the better of her stablemate last time as both were returning from extended layoffs. The general consensus is that Homerique ran the better race since she rallied from farther behind into a very slow pace. However, I believe people are being too dismissive of Competitionofideas and the difficulties she had last time. This filly does not possess the same turn of foot that Homerique does, so she was always going to be at a disadvantage given the setup in the Beaugay. Whereas Homerique was able to launch an unencumbered outside run, Competitionofideas had to wait for room down inside and alter course before Rosario set her down to a full drive. She was matching strides with Homerique late, but the gray filly won because she got the jump on her. Furthermore, Competitionofideas was coming off an extended layoff, and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that she, too, will improve with added distance. There is not much pace in this race, so I like that Brown has switched riders back to Javier Castellano. He rode Competitionofideas more aggressively in a few starts last year, and they may be able to get the jump on Homerique this time. The Peter Brant-owned filly may turn out to be the superior filly down the line, but I believe Competitionofideas is being overlooked and will offer value as a viable alternative.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 8
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 1,4,5,7
RACE 10: RAA ATOLL (#8)
If the Gold Cup were being contested over 1 1/2 miles, I would not try to beat Arklow since he is coming into this race off a superior effort in the Grade 1 Man o’ War. Yet the two-mile distance is uncharted territory for the son of Arch, and I’m unwilling to accept a short price on a favorite trying something for the first time. Among the American runners, Red Knight appears to be the most dangerous alternative. This New York-bred runs well regardless of surface or distance, and he proved that he handles the 16-furlong trip in the Allen Jerkens at Gulfstream two back. I’m also using Canessar, who put in a huge effort behind the talented Call to Mind in this race last year. The gray son of Kendargent has gotten some less-than-ideal trips since then and could get somewhat overlooked this year. I’m using all of those aforementioned Americans, but there are some European shippers to consider. Mootasadir and Amade appear best on all-weather surfaces, and their class is somewhat questionable. Yet the other Euro invader, Raa Atoll, is very intriguing. This son of Sea The Stars was once cut out to be a top-class racehorse, finishing just behind eventual Dubai Sheema Classic winner Old Persian and Irish Derby runner-up Rostropovich last June. Something clearly went awry after that, and he was privately sold. He showed up in Germany last month and beat a decent field that included Group 2 Doncaster Cup winner Thomas Hobson. That victory came at today’s distance and was accomplished using pace-pressing tactics. There is a serious lack of speed in this field, so Raa Atoll may inherit the lead. He clearly has the class and stamina to win at this level, and he may be a square price due to the unfamiliar connections.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,6,9
Trifecta: 8 with 4,6,9 with 1,3,4,6,7,9