by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 2: 9 - 11 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 4: 8 - 3 - 9 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 6: 11 - 3 - 8 - 6
Race 7: 6 - 8 - 12 - 9
Race 8: 3 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 9: 5 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 10: 4 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 11: 10 - 9 - 5 - 2
RACE 2: CAITRIONA (#9)
If Dream Passage draws into this field, she becomes the clear horse to beat. However, she’s starting to run out of chances and I’m not sure that 6 furlongs is really the right distance for her. She and the winner finished far ahead of the rest of the field in her return last time, but I think that margin was exaggerated by the “good” turf condition, which both horses clearly relished. I want to focus on another horse out of that Apr. 27 race. Caitriona ran better than it seems, as she got buried inside behind tiring runners on the turn after showing speed in the opening quarter. The early pace fell apart late, so she actually did well to rally inside once clear in the lane. We saw Smart and Sassy, who got a similar trip that day despite not running nearly as well as Caitriona, come back to register and improved effort in her next start. Caitriona is bred for turf and I think she’s going to appreciate the slight cutback to 6 furlongs.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 4,5,7,11
RACE 5: GIRLS LOVE ME (#5)
Unlike this race’s female counterpart, the Tremont does not feature an abundance of early speed. That should make Sir Truebadour a dangerous threat to wire the field. He ran hard every step of the way to win his debut and is bred to be a fast colt as a full brother to Regally Ready. The other horse likely to take money is the filly Mae Never No, who rallied willingly from off the pace to nail her stablemate Abyssinian in fast time. The 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure assigned to that race is the highest in this field, and Abyssinian returned to win his next start impressively. Todd Pletcher has three starters in this race, the best of whom appears to be the local winner Outshine, who won in the mud and certainly has a right to move forward off that effort. I’m using all of these, but the 2-year-old who intrigues me most is one who figures to fly under the radar in this race. Girls Love Me debuted in a weaker maiden race at Pimlico last time, but I loved what I saw from this big chestnut. He broke outwardly from the difficult 8 hole and quickly found his best stride as he cut over heading into the clubhouse turn. He stalked the pace kindly under little encouragement before drawing off with authority in the lane. This horse towered over his rivals in that race, literally and figuratively, and earned a highly competitive 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A couple of horses have run back out of that race to validate the number.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6,7
RACE 7: ALMITHMAAR (#6)
If Raging Bull runs back to his debut or even takes a step forward off that effort, he will be awfully tough to beat. Not only was he a visually impressive winner after getting away slowly and steadily drawing off in the lane, but he beat a very strong field. Numerous horses have returned out of that race to run significantly faster in their subsequent outings, suggesting that it was one of the highest quality maiden races contested at the Keeneland meet. I’m a fan, but there are other talented horses to consider. Morrison has clearly kept good company in his two recent starts against winners, as Hawkish and Way Early returned to complete the exacta in last weekend’s Penn Mile. However, Morrison will have to deal with other speed in this race. Among that group with early zip is first time turfer Almithmaar. This horse has run well in all three of his starts on dirt, which is incredibly encouraging given that his pedigree is strongly geared towards turf. His dam was an accomplished turf horse who won at a variety of distances, and even finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He figures to move forward on this surface, and it’s unclear if he really needs the lead given his inexperience on this surface. He’s my top pick, but I’ll use him with the aforementioned two, as well as returning maiden winner Have At It. The Christophe Clement trainee may not have been beating much in his Keeneland win last fall, but he accomplished it in striking fashion.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 8,9,12
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 2,5,9,10,12
RACE 8: IMPERIAL HINT (#3)
You can make a valid case for almost all of the runners in this wide-open True North. Champion sprinter Roy H won this race last year, and his stablemate Bobby Abu Dhabi is a strong contender in this year’s edition. However, he’s facing the deepest field of his career and will need to work out a stalking trip in a race where others have a similar running style. A few runners are exiting the Churchill Downs Stakes, and I want to be forgiving of those who put forth poor efforts that day. The track had taken a lot of water, and some horses clearly were not handling the surface. One of those appeared to be Imperial Hint, who probably wasn’t helped by contesting the pace inside of horses and never seemed comfortable. He’s better when he gets into a stalking position, and that is exactly what should happen here given his draw just outside of the speedy Recruiting Ready. Imperial Hint likely will offer some value here since he’s unlikely to be favored, and I believe he’s the best sprinter in this bunch. I’ll primarily use him with Whitmore, who had to alter course while rallying in that same race and has run fast enough to be competitive here.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 1,4,5,8
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,4,6,7
RACE 10: FUNNY KID (#4)
We’ll see who ends up taking money in this perplexing race. Generally, I’m somewhat against the Americans and want the new faces shipping in from Europe. Call to Mind is the horse with obviously strong European form, having twice finished in the money at the Group 2 level going marathon distances. Stradivarius, who defeated him in the Yorkshire Cup last time, is one of the best stayers in Europe, so it’s no disgrace that Call to Mind lost to him by three lengths. This lightly raced, royally owned colt seems to be heading in the right direction. At a slightly better price, I prefer Funny Kid, who has turned into a new horse this year. Despite not distinguishing himself through more than a dozen starts in his first two seasons of racing, Funny Kid has come alive since he’s been stretched out to true marathon distances. He had been doing it over synthetic surfaces, but he proved himself on turf last time, defeating the talented Ice Breeze, who had won against Group 1 company going this distance last season. The only horse with American form whom I want to throw into the mix is Canessar. His last race at Keeneland is better than it seems given the lack of pace, and he had previously run well in marathons in France. Beyond these, it looks wide open. I could even make a mild case for third European, Prince of Arran, who had been keeping much stronger company throughout much of last season.
Win: 4
Exacta Box: 1,4,5
Trifecta: 4 with 1,3,5 with 1,3,5,6,8,10
RACE 11: HAMPTON POINT (#10)
Mathematician ran his best race ever at 10 furlongs last time, which bodes well for his chances to handle the distance of this race. He finished ahead of Into the Breach, but the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee may have more of a right to take a step forward off his return. Into the Breach put forth two strong turf efforts last season, and seems like the horse to beat this time. I’ll use both, but there are some intriguing lightly-raced runners coming out of Gulfstream. One of those is Prompt, who took a big step forward in his second start despite racing greenly throughout that Feb. 18 race. He’s bred to run all day as a three-quarter brother to graded stakes winner Newsdad, so I like this stretch-out. However, some time has passed since his last start and he was a vet scratch once in April. I’m using him, but the horse that intrigues me most at a more enticing price is Hampton Point. This colt made his debut in a salty maiden race at Gulfstream back in January, and never really got a chance to run to his potential. He was reserved at the back of a large field and just seemed to get lost racing so far behind for much of that race. He was actually finishing best of all at the end of that race, putting in by far the fastest closing splits, according to Trakus. Jimmy Toner does an excellent job with his turf runners and he’s a good judge of which of his horses will appreciate longer distances on grass.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,5,9