by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 2: 4 - 7 - 2 - 1/1A
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 8 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 12 - 11
Race 8: 4 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 10: 6 - 5 - 2 - 13
Race 11: 3 - 5 - 7 - 1
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
From a value standpoint, I think the entry is a great reason to play this race because I don’t think either one merits their expected short price, which could dip even lower than my 6-5 morning line. Sosua Summer (#1A) arguably has the stronger overall turf form, but he’s hard to trust as a win candidate given all his disappointments. And I thought Bold Journey (#1) was very much with the race flow in his turf debut last time and didn’t do anything special against a soft field for the level. Among the logical contenders I view Famous Gent (#7) as the horse to beat. He has really improved since getting claimed by Fernando Abreu over the winter. He faced a tough field at Gulfstream two back on synth, closing stoutly in the late stages. He wasn’t as effective last time, but he was meeting a stakes quality field, and now he drops in class. The stretch-out to 6 furlongs shouldn’t bother this late runner. However, the lack of pace in here could be an issue for him and a few others. That’s one reason why I think Camm’ Duke (#4) is a dangerous longshot in this field. This runner’s lone turf attempt was over at the start when he lost his rider. However, it’s worth watching the rest of that replay, as this horse ran riderless past the field to take over on the turn and then outduel the winner late. He was obviously carrying far less weight than anyone else, but still showed some turf inclination that day. Since then he’s completely turned his dirt form around, making huge improvements over the winter. He’s now getting back on what may be his preferred surface while in the best form of his career, so I think we’re going to see a step forward. His recent bullet workout would seem to suggest he’s doing well, and reaching out to Jose Ortiz feels intentional for this barn.
Fair Value:
#4 CAMM' DUKE, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 3
Meteorite (#6) figures to be a strong favorite in this state-bred maiden affair as he attempts to improve on the result of his debut. He was highly touted that day, getting bet down to 9-5 despite facing some solid experienced rivals. Yet he ran like a horse who probably needed some seasoning. He showed good speed early but lacked some focus on the far turn and dropped back before rallying again in the last furlong to secure third. He was going out for Jimmy Jerkens that day, and now switches into the Todd Pletcher stable while picking up Irad Ortiz. He can obviously beat this field with slight improvement, but those changes are a recipe for him to get overbet. He has to turn the tables on Refuah (#2) who finished ahead of him in that April 21 affair. It’s a little tough to endorse this 0 for 14 maiden to win given his eight second-place finishes, but he has run multiple speed figures that suggest he’s good enough to break through at this level. The major concern with him is rather his recent form, since he failed to show up in the slop last time, checking in a distantly beaten fifth. My top pick Battleoflexington (#7). This horse has tried turf twice in his career and failed to handle it each time, so I won’t hold the last effort against him. Prior to that, he competed in the same April 21 event that both Meteorite and Refuah exit, and he didn’t finish that far behind either of them. I also felt he got the toughest trip, since he raced in the two-path early and was guided down to the rail in the stretch on a day when you generally wanted to avoid the inside paths at Aqueduct. There is some pace signed on in here, and this horse is depicted with the LP flag on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, indicating that he has the highest Late Pace Rating in the field. I feel confident he’ll finish strongly as he gets a rider upgrade to Junior Alvarado, and the price should be fair.
Fair Value:
#7 BATTLEOFLEXINGTON, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 6
Rotknee (#2) is clearly the horse to beat as he steps up to the N2X level following a dominant score against first-level allowance foes last time. He attracted unexpectedly strong tote support that day and pulled well clear once asked for run in the stretch. It had taken him a few starts to reach his full potential when he returned from a layoff earlier this year, but he’s in great form now. He also projects to get the right trip here, as the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front in a situation favoring frontrunners. I’m not thrilled with a few of the others who could take money in this spot. Listentoyourheart (#7) has been in great form, but could be in for a rude awakening after sitting on top of slow paces in his last two starts. Dream Shake (#5) has plenty of back class, but he never really went on after the auspicious start to his career, and I’m skeptical he can progress now as a 5-year-old. My top pick is Dot’s Dollar (#8). He did beat Rotknee two back on April 21, when he was arguably catching that rival prior to hitting his peak. He also had the benefit of racing with the flow of the track on a day favoring outside paths. Yet he still ran an exceptionally fast race, and followed it up with another solid effort. Returning just 7 days later, he overcame a sluggish start to close for second at this level. He figures to be more forwardly placed this time, and should benefit from bit more time between starts.
Fair Value:
#8 DOT'S DOLLAR, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
The two horses who figure to take the most money in this state-bred allowance are Ortus (#11) and Conman (#2). The former is a Christophe Clement-trained 4-year-old who has shown some talent through his first couple of starts. He ran pretty well against a tough open company field at Gulfstream on debut and then beat a much weaker group last time. I don’t mind the cutback to 7 furlongs for this son of Dominus, but he doesn’t have any real edge over this field based on form. Conman is a little more appealing, even though he’s lost his last two races at short prices. He encountered some traffic first off the layoff going 6 furlongs, and then was mildly bothered last time when a rival jumped shadows on the backstretch. That forced him to alter into the clear, where he got rank and moved prematurely. He makes plenty of sense off that effort, but I’m most interested in another rival from that May 19 race. Be of Courage (#4) didn’t show much when he returned from the layoff in the same race as Conman at Aqueduct in April, but he took a big step forward when they met again last time. Adding blinkers, he carved out some honest fractions up front and had every right to get tired in the late stages going a distance that may be a little too far for him. This colt showed ability as a 2-year-old, and now he’s coming back into form. He gets a significant rider upgrade to Javier Castellano, who rides live mounts for this barn, and the slight cutback benefits him. At a bigger price, I could also use Mr. Kringle (#12), who put in a huge effort in his most recent start at this level. He was surprisingly aggressive early and made a premature move to break away from the field on the turn before getting swallowed up by closers late. He's not really a winning type but the price should make him worth including.
Fair Value:
#4 BE OF COURAGE, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 8
I certainly have respect for War Like Goddess (#7). She’s just barely missed out on Eclipse Awards in each of the past two years, each time waiting until too late in the season to tackle Grade 1 company. This year her connections are seeking a Grade 1 victory earlier, even though she has to cut back to 10 furlong in this New York. While she has primarily gone longer, she did win her debut at 1 1/8 miles and possesses the finishing speed to handle this trip. From a class standpoint, she’s a standout here, achieving her best form against top turf males late last year. However, she still has to work out a trip from this outside draw. She can win covering some ground, and will be a handful if she’s within range at the quarter pole. I just think there’s one alternative who poses a significant threat at what should be a square price. Marketsegmentation (#4) showed potential when she debuted at Aqueduct late in her 2-year-old season. She was off for a long time after that, but returned in solid form last fall and now appears to be progressing as a mature 4-year-old. She had to work her way through some traffic to earn that Sand Springs victory against weaker two back, but she then put it all together last time. She was more aggressive in the early stages of the Beaugay, and took over with authority in the stretch. The stretch-out to 10 furlongs is a new hurdle, but she possesses the kind of kick that could break this race if the fractions are slow. I would suspect that Chad Brown will send her to the lead and try to back down the pace, as she seems to have the most natural speed of his quartet.
Fair Value:
#4 MARKETSEGMENTATION, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 9
My primary opinion in this Acorn is that I’m against Munnys Gold (#5). I’ll be interested to see if she’s actually favored here because it feels like there’s quite a bit of doubt about her ability to get this 1 1/16 miles distance. She’s clearly the most naturally talented filly in this field, but she just strikes me as a pure sprinter. Furthermore, it’s not as if she’s going to have much opportunity to relax on the lead with plenty of other speed signed on. I much prefer Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous (#6) between the likely favorites. There was nothing to knock about her Oaks victory, in which she overcame a wide draw to win convincingly. If anything, she got a little leg weary at the end of that 9-furlong contest, so the slight turnback in distance should only benefit her. I do have some reservations about the overall quality of the race, but it’s not as if this stakes came up so much tougher. That said, there are some intriguing new faces to consider. Goodgirl Badhabits (#7) is a wild card in the group after easily beating overmatched competition in Maryland by sizable margins. She’s only sprinted so far, but she’s bred to be a dirt router and is an unknown quantity in a race that seems open to an improving sort. Chad Brown sends out three runners, of which Randomized (#2) looks most dangerous off her 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure maiden victory back in March. The layoff is a minor concern, especially since she’s moving way up in class, but there’s obviously some talent here. I want to give another shot to the horse who should be the biggest price of the Brown trio. Occult (#4) may simply be too slow, but I want to be somewhat forgiving of her Gazelle. Something seemed to go awry that day, as she traveled around the far turn like she was going to win the race and then came up empty when put to pressure. She had responded far better in her prior two starts, including a Busanda win over eventual Kentucky Oaks runners-up Gambling Girl. I don’t mind the slight turnback for her, and she must be training well in company with Randomized for Chad Brown to be giving her a shot to rebound in this Grade 1.
Fair Value:
#4 OCCULT, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 10
If Siskany (#2) shows up with this best effort, it’s hard to see him losing this Belmont Gold Cup. He appeared to be at his best just two starts ago when narrowly losing the Dubai Gold Cup over this same distance at Meydan, traveling strongly into the race before getting overhauled by the classy Broome in the late stages. It’s a slight worry that he didn’t seem to be quite so sharp last time at York when he failed to produce a kick over a slightly shorter trip, but that was another spot that looked a little tougher than this one. He’s just the class of the field, and the Europeans have generally dominated this race. I don’t have any major knocks against him, but he does figures to be an awfully short price going out for connections that tend to get hammered in the wagering. Among the U.S.-based runners, some may consider Amazing Grace (#7), who brings strong German form and ran well in her stateside debut at Gulfstream. However, she wasn’t beating the strongest field that day and subsequently disappointed in the Sheepshead Bay, albeit in a race run at a glacial pace. It’s unclear if she’s going to appreciate added ground, and I doubt she’ll be an appealing price. I have similar feelings about The Grey Wizard (#13), though he might get more overlooked breaking from the outside post position. However, I ultimately wanted to look in other directions. Strong Tide (#5) put in a massive effort in this race last year, where he was unlucky not to hold on for second. He broke that race open, going after leader Abaan on the far turn while opening up a significant margin on the rest of the field. The others who contested that pace dropped away and faded badly, yet he kept on trying to the wire behind the perfect-trip winner. He clearly has the stamina to get this demanding distance, but he does have to work out a trip in a race with other speed. My top pick is L’Imperator (#6). This horse possessed real ability when he was in Chad Brown’s barn and had a successful 2022 season that saw him earn a graded stakes victory. He never raced beyond 1 1/2 miles, but he was a confident winner going that distance at Monmouth and ran respectably over a marathon trip in the Bowling Green. Since then he’s been privately sold and is now under the care of jump trainer Archibald Kingsley. He’s made three starts over jumps this year, and has taken to it pretty well. His last race at Percy Warner was particularly impressive, as he kicked strongly in the final quarter, overtaking a Keri Brion runner who appears to possess some talent. He showed that he still possesses some of his old flat speed in that race, and the training for jumps appears to have gotten him to settle better than he had in the past. I’m hoping Trevor McCarthy can get him to relax early and produce him at the right time. The price should be generous.
Fair Value:
#6 L'IMPERATOR, at 10-1 or greater
#5 STRONG TIDE, at 11-1 or greater
RACE 11
The favorites in this Intercontinental look pretty legitimate, and I would regard Bay Storm (#5) and Bubble Rock (#7) as the most likely winners. I give slight preference to the former at what could be a marginally better price. While Bay Storm saved more ground than today’s rival Sarah Harper in the Unbridled Sidney last time, she didn’t get the most comfortable trip. Breaking from the rail, she wasn’t ridden aggressively and got shuffled back on the turn. She found herself in an unfamiliar position at the quarter pole and had to briefly pause in traffic before firing between rivals late. She was actually finishing faster than Sarah Harper across the wire and might have gotten closer to Caravel with a different trip. The Jonathan Thomas barn is on one of its strong runs and she merits respect. Bubble Rock also comes into this in strong form, having responded well to the turnback in distance in the License Fee last time. She’s always been most effective as a sprinter, and they’re finally concentrating on the right races with her. I definitely want her most of those exiting the License Fee. Yet I think there’s one runner to consider from a different direction who figures to be overlooked in this spot. Clitheroe (#3) showed some promise overseas but perhaps didn’t quite live up to her potential. She was a visually impressive winner at Lingfield early last year before struggling against tougher competition. She launched a U.S. campaign for Graham Motion last time, and got dismissed by the bettors as she drew in from the AE list. Racing keenly while always wide, she traveled 4-wide on the turn without cover, always in the bridle. She willingly moved to take over in upper stretch before holding sway late. Her 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure seems a little generous, but she earned it the hard way in a performance that is probably better than the bare result indicates. I don't mind the cutback to 6 furlongs at all, and she might have upside second off the layoff if she can get some cover this time.
Fair Value:
#3 CLITHEROE, at 9-1 or greater