by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 11 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 3 - 9 - 2
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 9 - 7 - 3 - 8
Race 9: 6 - 9 - 3 - 10
RACE 2: IT’S A SHAW THING (#1)
Getmotherarose is clearly the horse to beat, but she’s difficult to trust at a very short price. She showed plenty of promise during her juvenile season but has struggled in two starts as a 3-year-old. Something clearly went awry last time as she unexpectedly dropped out of contention on the far turn at Gulfstream. She has been off for two months since then and now drops back in for a tag. I believe she will appreciate the turnback in distance since she ran well behind stakes winner Regal Glory in her career debut last fall. However, I want to look elsewhere given her dubious profile. I’m taking a shot with It’s a Shaw Thing as she gets back on turf for the first time since her debut. That day, she was facing a particularly tough field at Saratoga. The winner, Concrete Rose, has won 4 of 5 starts, including Grade 2 and Grade 3 victories, while also-rans Introduced and Jo Jo Air have performed well in turf-sprint stakes in subsequent starts. It’s a Shaw Thing chased a fast pace that day before fading. She was risked for cheaper tags in some maiden-claiming dirt starts over the winter, which is somewhat worrisome. However, she has improved her form in recent starts, and she’s bred to handle the surface. Her dam never tried grass, but one sibling was a four-time turf winner. I believe she deserves another chance on this surface.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,6,11
RACE 4: LEM ME TEL YA (#11)
Poppy Joe Rocks seems like the favorite by default in this spot, since so few of his competitors bring recent turf form to the table. I suppose he has a decent chance to win this race if he merely repeats his maiden victory two back, but I think he’s going to attract too much wagering support off that modest effort. He beat a fairly weak field at Fair Grounds and the 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for the performance is typically not fast enough to win races at this level. If he were trained by anyone other than Joe Sharp, I might have placed him even lower in my picks for this race, but Sharp is an excellent conditioner of turf sprinters. I want to look elsewhere for better value, so I’m taking a shot with Lem Me Tel Ya, who may end up as the second choice. This colt showed turf ability against maidens last year, picking up checks in a few races while earning speed figures that would be fast enough to beat this field. Some will understandably be deterred by his poor effort in his return to this surface last time out, but he didn’t get the right trip that day. Rajiv Maragh stuck him on the rail and he ended up getting caught in behind a 60-1 shot who was tiring at a critical juncture around the quarter pole. Lem Me Tel Ya lost all of his momentum and his race was essentially over by the time he swung off the inside in the stretch. I think he deserves another shot on this surface, and he doesn’t have much to beat this time as he drops in for a tag. At bigger prices, I could also use Support Our Cause, whose lone turf start is actually one of his better efforts, and Call the Cat, who ran a competitive speed figure on this surface as a 2-year-old.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,4,5
RACE 7: ACHILLES WARRIOR (#4)
Chad Brown has two runners in this allowance, and both figure to attract support. Identity Politics is the class of the field on the basis of his Grade 1 placing in the Malibu last December. However, he’s been somewhat disappointing since then. He lost as the 4-5 favorite two back at Gulfstream despite receiving a highly favorable pace setup. I can excuse his poor effort in the Carter, but I’m starting to wonder if we saw the best this horse has to offer over the winter. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that this race will favor horses racing on or near the lead, and he is projected to be at the back of the pack. His uncoupled stablemate, Payne, is also quite interesting as he returns from a long layoff. He looked great in his only start for this barn last summer, defeating the well-meant Hersh in a fast maiden event. He appears to be training well for his return, and I would not be surprised if he’s the Brown runner whom you really want. I’m using both, but my top pick is Achilles Warrior. I was disappointed not to cash a win bet on this runner last time since he ran too well to lose that race to an improbable longshot. Achilles Warrior had hinted that better things were on the horizon with his workouts at Gulfstream this winter, the last of which featured him outdrilling his talented stablemate Strike Power. While he benefited from a moderate pace in his return at Aqueduct, he figures to get a similar setup on the front end here. He only has to outrun The Caretaker to the front, and the early lead should be his. As long as he continues his forward momentum, I believe he can upset the Brown pair.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3
Trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,5,7
RACE 8: MO GOTCHA (#9)
With the scratch of 9-5 morning line favorite Sniper Shot, Bernin’ Thru Gold becomes the likely public choice. This horse always had ability, but it’s taken Mark Hennig a few starts to get him sorted out. He collapsed from exhaustion after the wire in his debut and needed time off. He blew the start in his return at Gulfstream but then put it all together second off the layoff, destroying a field by nearly 16 lengths. If he repeats that most recent effort, he’s a major player. Unlike Sniper Shot, he’s bred to get this distance as a half-brother to $500,000 router Mei Ling, from the family of millionaire router Master Command. I’m using him, but I don’t fully trust either of these horses, and I want to look outside the box. My top pick is Mo Gotcha. This horse has absolutely no chance if he merely repeats his debut, but I think he could run much better in his second start. He was very green first time out, refusing to run away from his competition while swerving through the lane. His ears kept flicking back and forth throughout the stretch drive, indicating that he was just toying with his competition despite the modest margin of victory. This big horse has a lumbering stride and gives every indication that he will appreciate more ground. I like the way he’s trained since that race, recording much faster workouts than prior to his debut. Jeremiah Englehart does not have the strongest numbers in this situation, but I think this horse may be an exception. He may not win, but I believe he’s going to outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,7,8
Trifecta: 7 with 3,5,8 with 9