by David Aragona
 

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 6:   1 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 8:   4 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 9:   6 - 5 - 4 - 9

While I've limited my Top Plays (see below) to four races that bookend this 9-race card, there are some interesting horses running towards the middle of the day that I want to at least mention:

• Devamani looks tough to beat in Race 4 after making a visually impressive late run in his U.S. debut at Keeneland. This horse has a stellar pedigree as a half-brother to Group 1 winner Dariyan who is out of a Group 1-winning dam. The added distance should help. I'd also use County Court, who has a right to continue his forward progression as a four-year-old.
• No Need to Appeal probably will not offer much value in Race 5, but she looks like the right one after blowing the start in her return last time. All things considered, she actually ran well to be third and seems likely to take a step forward.
• I couldn't quite latch onto any of those with experience in Race 6. Special Trip has had her chances in Florida. Soar From Shadows comes out of a pretty weak race, though she did run well overcoming a wide trip that day. I don't love to go for first time starters in these situations, but Susan B Anthony seems well-meant for top connections. This filly is a full-sister to multiple Group 1 winner Rip Van Winkle.
• In Race 7, I prefer the two runners coming out of that strong Apr. 22 starter allowance race that was dominated by Son of Mine and Stan the Man. Have Another actually ran very well that day closing into slow fractions. He probably won't get much early pace here, either, so the speedy More Front serves as a nice complement.

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: ZECHARIAH (#3)
Blurred Line is clearly the horse to beat off his Gulfstream form. He was facing legitimately good horses two back when finishing behind Uncle Gio and Frontier Market. He got a bit of class relief when dropped in against maiden-claiming company last time, but Charnley River and Sentry are no slouches either. He was claimed out of that race by Danny Gargan, who has wisely moved him to New York to run against statebreds. This is arguably the easiest race in which he’s run, and he figures to be tough. However, I do think one runner has a chance to pull off a minor upset. Zechariah is coming out of a solid maiden race at Aqueduct that was dominated by the talented Crossways. His rider saved ground throughout but lost some position coming to the top of the stretch. Once this colt was steered into the clear, he actually was finishing with interest despite racing a bit greenly. He’s bred to be a good horse as a half-brother to Rectify and Sanctify, and he’s getting a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz. I don’t expect a big price, but he makes plenty of sense as a viable alternative.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,6
 

RACE 3: ZEVEN (#1)
Believe Indeed has obviously put forth the best recent efforts, racing competitively in tougher starter and allowance races in Florida. If she transfers that form to New York, she may be too good for this field. However, her prior races on the NYRA circuit were hardly her best, so I don’t want to take too short of a price on this favorite. There are three alternatives. Of those, I’m least interested in Bonita Springs, whose form seems to have tailed off. Those starter-allowance races she contested at Gulfstream are actually fairly weak races, so she isn’t getting any major class relief here. Miss Aja Brown makes sense after getting a sprint prep in last time. However, I don’t think she was running any better than Zeven when those two faced off in similar spots last season, and the Bruce Levine trainee is going to be a better price. Zeven’s speed makes her interesting here, and the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be loose on the front end. Her two races at Gulfstream look disappointing at first glance, but they actually aren’t as bad as they seem. She was facing a deceptively tough optional-claiming field two back and then got embroiled in a torrid early duel through fast fractions last time. She’s clearly better than that, and she’s getting back to the right class level.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
 

RACE 8: MADE YOU LOOK (#4)
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace even after the scratches of the two outside runners. Black Tide is a run-off type who typically sets swift fractions regardless of early pressure, and he figures to be chased by stretch-out sprinter Dowse's Beach in the early going. Inspector Lynley just looks a little too obvious as the favorite in this race. He’s probably the best closer in this field, but his move can be difficult to time correctly. He was facing a tougher field at Keeneland last time when closing belatedly. He makes sense, but I’m not looking to take a very short price on him. I’m trying to beat the favorite with Made You Look, a rare Chad Brown runner who should be a square price. Overall, this runner’s form for his prior barn was not bad. He ran respectably in the Breeders’ Cup as a 2-year-old before getting compromised in a few of his stakes starts as a 3-year-old. He had no chance to close into a slow pace in the Kitten’s Joy last February and may not have appreciated a soft turf course in the American Turf. This runner appears to be training well for his return to the races, and he possesses the tactical speed to get the jump on Inspector Lynley.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6,7
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,6,7
 

RACE 9: MY LIGHTNIN STRIKE (#6)
I found this to be one of the most confusing races on this card. I suppose the horse to beat is Tres Charmant, who ran reasonably well at this level last time after chasing the pace from the outside. She has a right to step forward in her second start off the layoff, but there are others to consider. Kitten’s Covergirl earned a fast speed figure two back at Gulfstream, but that came against a field of suspect quality. Glossy gets some needed class relief, but I haven’t loved any of her races either. Ultimately, I decided this is a race where we can get a little creative, so I’m taking a shot with longshot My Lightnin Strike getting back on turf. They tried grass with her last fall, and she actually ran better than it seems. The pace of that Dec. 2 race was fast (indicated by red color-coded pace figures in TimeformUS PPs), and she hung in gamely until the eighth pole before retreating. While she doesn’t have a ton of turf pedigree, she has improved overall since that initial grass attempt. I think she deserves another chance on this surface, and she figures to get a decent stalking trip sitting just off Velvet Trinni.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,5,9