PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   6 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 5:   5 - 12 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 9:   5 - 2 - 9 - 11

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

I’m not thrilled with a few of the horses who could attract support in this $25k claimer. Strong Odor (#4) could go favored as she returns to turf. I didn’t really like any of her performances on the synthetic track at Turfway over the winter, but she’s probably better on the grass. She did face some much tougher fields late last year and ran respectably a few times. Yet with that in mind, I find it troubling that they’re just giving her away for $25k getting back on her preferred surface. I’m even less thrilled with Jill’s a Hot Mess (#2) and Crowding Out (#5). The former was in good form last year, but this drop off the layoff feels like a bad sign for a barn that has generally struggled on this circuit. Crowding Out looks to be in better form, but she hasn’t been finishing off her recent 5-furlong races at Gulfstream the way I would want to see, and I have questions about her getting this distance. Itsakeyper (#1) makes plenty of sense as she returns to the NYRA circuit. She faced some subtly tougher fields upon returning in Florida, especially last time out at Tampa when she closed belatedly for fourth. She’s now third off the layoff and is dropping back down to a more realistic level. Any pace that develops up front will also help her. My top pick is Spicy Margarita (#6). She has to avoid getting involved in a potentially fast early pace with other speed signed on, but at least she’s drawn to the outside, which should give Carol Cedeno options. I’m a big fan of the progeny of Cinco Charlie getting on the turf, and this filly took a big step forward switching to grass last time. That 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her very competitive here, and I really liked the way she finished off that race. She has a floating, bouncy stride that really translated well to grass, and I liked the way she maintained her action all the way through the finish. I think she can win again on the class rise, and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#6 SPICY MARGARITA, at 4-1 or greater
#1 ITSAKEYPER, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

The undefeated Squire Creek (#2) will obviously attract a great deal of support as he ships in from Kentucky, especially with Florent Geroux coming, though he’s primarily in town for Bishops Bay in the Peter Pan on Saturday. This colt won his debut at Fair Grounds like a good thing, and that race was come back very strong. Three runners who finished behind him have already come back to significantly improve on their TimeformUS Speed Figures from that race. He then won an allowance race comfortably at Keeneland, earning a number that will make him too tough for his foes if he can repeat it here. He has some other early speed to deal with this time if the intention is to go forward again. He’s clearly going to be tough to beat, but will also be a very short price. I just want to take one shot against him with Joey Freshwater (#1). This colt has proven to be quite the claim for Linda Rice, winning 2 of 4 since getting picked up for $50k, including a G3 victory last time. That Bay Shore wasn’t the strongest edition of the race, but he did hold off a nice horse in Gilmore, who came back to finish third in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile last week with an improved speed figure. This colt was no match for today’s rival Drew’s Gold when they met in the Jimmy Winkfield, but it’s likely that he’s improved since then. He possesses a versatile running style so the rail draw shouldn’t be a hindrance. He may still be a bit underrated and should be finishing well late.

Fair Value:
#1 JOEY FRESHWATER, at 3-1 or greater