by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 2 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 11 - 3 - 10
Race 4: 1 - 4 - 7 - 8
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 6: 10 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 7: 3 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 6 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 5 - 9
RACE 1: DILLON ROCKS (#4)
What’s to Blame seems like the horse to beat as he drops in class out of a maiden special weight race. He was facing a solid field that day and closed with good interest to be fourth. He never really threatened the top three finishers, but he was also held up in traffic around the far turn before rallying late. Christophe Clement has decent statistics with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company on turf. I’m using him, but I think there are many other contenders with solid turf form in this race. Teachable Moment will take money for Chad Brown, but I was not thrilled with either of his turf efforts last season, and he needs to improve significantly as a 3-year-old. I’m more interested in runners coming out of other spots. My top pick is Dillon Rocks. I was interested in this horse when he made his turf debut two back on April 7, and he actually ran quite well that day. He raced three wide around both turns and was briefly in contention in upper stretch before fading late. That was a fast race for the level, and he does not need to improve much, if at all, on that performance to beat this field. Some may be deterred by his 21-length loss last time out, but I think we should forgive that performance. Dillon Rocks got involved in an early duel through deceptively fast fractions and had every right to fade late behind a very talented winner. If Joe Bravo can work out a stalking trip this time, I believe he has an excellent chance to win. The others to include are Carom and Strategic Outlook, both of whom have run competitively against tougher maiden special weight foes in the past.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,6,8
RACE 2: B. B. DUDE (#2)
Running Violence is likely to go off at a short price on the drop in class, but I don’t fully trust this runner. He rode a very strong rail bias to break his maiden on Feb. 3 and he is going to take plenty of money based on the speed figure he earned that day. He broke fine last time but showed no early speed after the start, steadily dropping back through the pack. Now he returns with blinkers on while dropping in for the lowest claiming tag of his career. There are some negative indicators here, and I want to try to beat him. Who’s Driving is a logical alternative. He blew the start two back and actually ran on quite well to be fourth behind a pair of more talented rivals. I can excuse his last effort on turf, and he would be dangerous here if he gets back to his best dirt efforts. I’m using him, but my top pick is B. B. Dude. Asmussen is dropping this runner down to the cheapest level of his career, but the drop makes sense for a horse who hasn’t really gone on since his 2-year-old season. He returned at Oaklawn last time and he faded to be 6th after flashing some brief early speed. Given the overall strength of that field in comparison to this one, his effort was not nearly as poor as it might seem. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be close to the front in a situation favoring the leaders, and he may find himself alone on the lead if Running Violence is as sluggish as he was in his last start.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6
RACE 4: STEELERSFANFORLIFE (#1)
Mango M has failed to break through at this level despite going off at short prices, but he has had excuses in his recent turf efforts. His saddle slipped on Sept. 15, he was never inside on a rail-biased course on Oct. 5, and he got floated extremely wide around the far turn on Nov. 2. He was ready to fire off a similar layoff last year, albeit at a shorter distance, and his tactical speed should be an asset in this spot. He’s the horse to beat. I’m taking a shot with Steelersfanforlife, who figures to get somewhat ignored in this spot. This horse put in a career-best effort in his first start off the claim for this barn last September, making a wide, premature move to the lead before fading late over a yielding course. It appears that his form has gone downhill since, but in reality, the situation is not so dire. He had a major excuse on Oct. 5, when he broke a good two lengths behind the field and raced three wide against a strong rail bias. He can be forgiven for running poorly on dirt, and he won off a similar layoff in his maiden score last June. I think he’s very intriguing on the return to turf, and he’s going to be a square price. The other horse to use is New Jersey John. Trainer Mike Dini sent some live runners to the NYRA circuit last year, and this gelding has been facing tougher company in open races down at Tampa. If he can recapture the form we saw last summer, he's a top contender.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,7,8,9
RACE 5: CANDYGRAM (#6)
Its All Relevant is going to attract some support, and I’m fairly skeptical of this runner. He’s moving way up in class off the claim back by Linda Rice after being dangled for much cheaper tags on a number of occasions throughout the winter. There are clearly some holes in this horse that have given his connections reservations. That said, he has run some fast speed figures, but I think it’s wise to pay attention to the difference between the Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures with this particular horse. He ran in a number of races that necessitated tricky judgment calls for figure-makers, and he has also set slow paces on a few occasions. That has resulted in the TimeformUS numbers rating him lower, and those figures suggest he needs to improve to beat this field. I respect the connections, but I am against this horse. I just believe Candygram is better than him. I know he wasn’t beating the strongest field in the slop last time, but he handled 1 1/8 miles, which probably isn’t his best distance, earning a career-best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He ran deceptively well in both of his sprint races at Gulfstream this winter, and now he gets to negotiate an ideal one-mile trip. I love the outside post position for a horse who is as comfortable stalking as he is on the lead, and I think he’s the most likely winner of this race. The other runners to consider are Be Gone Daddy and Roaming Union. However, the former probably needs a pace collapse in order to win, and the latter may prefer two turns. The other horse that I want to include at a much bigger price is Giuseppe the Great. This 5-year-old has plenty of back class, and his return at Keeneland was not as bad as it seems. He was compromised by a very slow pace and was running on late behind some salty rivals.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with ALL
RACE 6: OUTRAGEOUS BET (#10)
The likely favorite in this race is Fast Getaway, who steps up after beating N1X allowance foes in impressive fashion last time. This 4-year-old stands out in a field of runners who have already had many chances at this level. He also earned a speed figure that would make him competitive with these last fall, and it’s possible that he may take a step forward in his second start off the layoff for Linda Rice. I have no major knocks against him, but I feel that others will offer better value. One of his main rivals is Alien Season. Wesley Ward is always dangerous with runners shipping in from Keeneland at this time of year, and the lightly-raced 5-year-old has won both of his prior starts against New York-bred company. The barn is not very strong with runners coming off layoffs in turf sprints, but Ward does do very well with the synthetic to turf move. This gelding would be a player if he repeats or improves upon his Nov. 8 victory at Aqueduct. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Outrageous Bet. This Gary Contessa trainee made his first attempt at this level while returning from the layoff last time. He was no match for Psychic Energy that day, but he ran deceptively well within the context of that race. He had to pause while waiting for room in upper stretch, and subsequently rallied strongly in a race where no one else made up ground in the lane. All 4 of his career victories have come over this course, and he earned some formidable speed figures going this distance last fall. He figures to be a more enticing price than the two aforementioned runners.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 8: HUSHION (#6)
Front Run the Fed will probably go off as the favorite as he steps up to face winners for the first time. He ran a fast race to beat older maidens going 6 furlongs at Aqueduct last time and will be difficult to handle if he moves forward off that effort. That said, he gets a class test today whereas others in this field have already been tested against stakes company. I believe he’s a strong contender for the top spot, but these types of Chad Brown runners often get overbet. I’m using him prominently, but there’s another runner at a much bigger price who intrigues me. I’ve been waiting for Hushion to get a shot on turf ever since he made his debut. This gelding’s dam was an accomplished turf horse, earning all 5 of her career victories on that surface, and her only prior foal to try the turf won over it. The Lumber Guy hasn’t produced many turf progeny, but he’s a son of decent turf influence Grand Slam. The Pace Projector is predicting that Hushion is faster than his rivals in the early going, and he is a gate-to-wire threat if Mike Luzzi can moderate the early pace. He doesn’t have to improve much on this surface switch, since his dirt form actually makes him quite competitive at this level.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7