by David Aragona
Today's picks and analysis have been updated for Races 2, 4, and 6 coming off the turf. Races 1 and 7 will be run on the turf, as originally scheduled.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 1 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 10 - 9 - 12
Race 5: 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 3 - 13 - 2 - 4
Race 7: 7 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 7 - 2 - 6
RACE 1: STRIKING DAMSEL (#5)
If this race stays on grass, Too Cool to Dance is going to go off as a heavy favorite. She’s just run well in both of her career starts. She finished behind stakes winner Figarella’s Queen in her debut and then at Aqueduct lost to her stablemate Reversethedecision, who looks bound for stakes. The stretch-out to 10 furlongs and the prospect of a rain-softened course are unknown factors, but she figures to handle both as a daughter of Kitten’s Joy. However, there are a couple of other interesting lightly-raced runners in this field. Osare is a half-sister to Horse of the Year Arrogate, but she handled turf well in her debut and would be a factor if she could take a step forward. I’m using her, but my top pick is first time turfer Striking Damsel. This filly was running on well at the end of her debut on dirt, and displayed a high-striding action that is usually indicative of turf ability. Her pedigree certainly suggests that she should like this surface. While her most accomplished sibling is Noble Bird, he was a son of dirt sire Birdstone. She’s also a half-sister to 3 turf winners and is sired by 14% turf sire Smart Strike. She’s bred to run all day so this stretch-out in distance may be right up her alley.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,7
RACE 3: SHANGHAI GLORY (#1)
There are two main contenders in this race. The likely favorite is Seam, who returns for her 4-year-old debut after her 2017 campaign ended in lackluster fashion. She had run competitively against maiden-claiming company last September at Belmont, but her form fell apart once she was claimed by her current connections. Her effort on Nov. 22 was especially disappointing, as she appeared to tower over that field but was soundly beaten over the kind of wet track that she had previously handled. Now she returns at this same bottom level. She hardly needs one of her top efforts to beat this field, but I don’t trust her at what figures to be a very short price. I prefer the logical alternative, Shanghai Glory. Horses dropping out of maiden special weight company are always dangerous in spots like this. She actually exits a decent race that was won by the stakes-placed filly Sara Street. Shanghai Glory’s running line does not paint a complete picture of her performance. She actually showed good speed from the rail before steadying out of position in the first quarter-mile. Michelle Nevin sent her to the post for her debut, but she has since been transferred to Steve Asmussen’s barn. If Joel Rosario can get her to show the same early speed that she flashed in her debut, the others may find her difficult to catch.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 3,7
RACE 4: GETOFFMYBACK (#7)
If this race gets transferred to the dirt, I want to bet Getoffmyback. Trainer Ray Handal has done a fantastic job with his claims over the past two years (8 for 38, $3.47 ROI), and I like the confidence being displayed as he moves this horse up in class significantly. Most recently, he ran an excellent race against the classy Morning Buzz on Feb. 18 over a sloppy, sealed racetrack that should be similar to the one he encounters on Friday. He did not perform as well for the John Toscano barn, but his last race was a step back in the right direction. The one-mile distance is a bit of a question mark, but he has run well going seven furlongs and has finished second going this far in the past. He possesses the tactical speed to get a good early position behind likely pacesetter Doyouknowsomething, and I’m hoping the track can carry him the rest of the way. Obviously, his main danger is Old Upstart, who also handles a wet track. However, Belmont typically gets somewhat speed-favoring with a lot of rain, and that could work against this closer. I can’t strongly endorse anyone else. Donji is unproven over a wet track, though he would have a chance were he to handle it. Doyouknowsomething’s recent form has fallen apart, and Forest Blue is unlikely to get the distance.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,9,10,12
RACE 6: WEGETSDAMUNNYS (#3)
Whether this race stays on grass or comes off the turf, Citizen Matzo is likely to be favored. Based on her Tampa debut effort, she is the fastest horse in this race. She chased down the leader in an open-company maiden race and earned a very respectable 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The interesting thing about her is that she’s really meant for turf. Her damside pedigree is full of grass influences, and she’s by solid turf sire Proud Citizen. I wonder how long she’ll be able to hold her form together racing on dirt, but I do acknowledge that she’s the horse to beat on either surface. Regardless of surface, I prefer the runner just to her inside, Wegetsdamunnys. This filly has simply been facing tougher company in her last two starts and gets some needed class relief. If this race stays on dirt, she figures to handle it well. According to DRF Formulator stats, her sire, D’ Funnybone, wins with 21 percent of his runners on off tracks. However, I’m really looking forward to this filly getting on turf. D’ Funnybone is actually a decent turf influence, and her dam, Mystic Miracle, was a nice turf runner during her racing career, winning 4 races on that surface. This is the female family of Fourstardave and Fourstarsallstar, two of the best New York-bred turfers in history. On dirt, the other primary contender is Ribbonite, who makes her first start off the claim by James Riccio and Danny Gargan. On turf, the other two horses I want to consider are Saratoga Treasure, who was buried inside when attempting to rally last time, and Forever Daisy, who should appreciate the turnback after making a premature move last time.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,13